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> Anywhere near the coast of China, a warship is within range of truck-mounted anti-ship missiles.[2] Lots of them. If there's a war over Taiwan, the Taiwan Str

by justin66 10mo ago

> Anywhere near the coast of China, a warship is within range of truck-mounted anti-ship missiles.[2] Lots of them. If there's a war over Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait will be a no-go zone for US warships. Not to mention China's attack submarines, with their own anti-ship missiles as well as old-fashioned torpedoes. They have proven their ability to pop up and say "hello!" to US warships in the past. [0] Getting that close wouldn't be as easy when everyone is on a wartime footing, but then again, US ships would be steaming right towards them... [0] https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2007/january/world-naval-developments-back-surveillance-game https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2007/january/worl...

jasonwatkinspdx 10mo ago
The Taiwan strait is too shallow for submarines to operate, so in a hypothetical conflict, China's subs will be much further out, trying to keep US strike groups far from the island, while also securing China's supply lines through Malacca. Note this is one of the material motivations for the CCP gaining control over Taiwan. They'd quite like to move their submarine basing to the east side of the island as a practical matter. It's got deep water and plenty of cliffs/mountains suitable for hardened docks/shelters.
- justin66 10mo ago
  > China's subs will be much further out, trying to keep US strike groups far from the island I agree that's generally true and I didn't mean to imply otherwise. Thinking it through, though: if Japan is party to the conflict its naval assets are likely to be much closer to China, and China will need to keep some assets nearby in the East China Sea to honor the threat regardless. To be honest the thing that's puzzled me about the Izumo-class ships since I read about them and the conversion they are undergoing to carry F-35Bs is where exactly they'd be safe to operate in a conflict against China. It's not like those planes have great range, and it's not like refueling is usually going to be an option, so if they're going to be put to use those ships are going to be in range of an awful lot of stuff. And what a juicy target for China. > The Taiwan strait is too shallow for submarines to operate Is that true of China's smallest diesel-electric attack subs? I'd think the reason for them not to operate there would be a lack of targets. edit: I take the latter part back. Apparently mine-laying in the straight by US submarines is hypothetically something that could happen in the conflict, and that would certainly constitute a target for China https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/you-cant-win-without-more-submarines https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/you...
- tw1984 10mo ago
  > The Taiwan strait is too shallow for submarines to operate Welcome to 2025. How about those unmanned submarines that can be made dirty cheap?

jasonwatkinspdx 10mo ago

The Taiwan strait is too shallow for submarines to operate, so in a hypothetical conflict, China's subs will be much further out, trying to keep US strike groups far from the island, while also securing China's supply lines through Malacca. Note this is one of the material motivations for the CCP gaining control over Taiwan. They'd quite like to move their submarine basing to the east side of the island as a practical matter. It's got deep water and plenty of cliffs/mountains suitable for hardened docks/shelters.

justin66 10mo ago
> China's subs will be much further out, trying to keep US strike groups far from the island I agree that's generally true and I didn't mean to imply otherwise. Thinking it through, though: if Japan is party to the conflict its naval assets are likely to be much closer to China, and China will need to keep some assets nearby in the East China Sea to honor the threat regardless. To be honest the thing that's puzzled me about the Izumo-class ships since I read about them and the conversion they are undergoing to carry F-35Bs is where exactly they'd be safe to operate in a conflict against China. It's not like those planes have great range, and it's not like refueling is usually going to be an option, so if they're going to be put to use those ships are going to be in range of an awful lot of stuff. And what a juicy target for China. > The Taiwan strait is too shallow for submarines to operate Is that true of China's smallest diesel-electric attack subs? I'd think the reason for them not to operate there would be a lack of targets. edit: I take the latter part back. Apparently mine-laying in the straight by US submarines is hypothetically something that could happen in the conflict, and that would certainly constitute a target for China https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/you-cant-win-without-more-submarines https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/you...
tw1984 10mo ago
> The Taiwan strait is too shallow for submarines to operate Welcome to 2025. How about those unmanned submarines that can be made dirty cheap?