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I'm surprised the WSJ didn't have any depth on what's happened and why. "Backwardation" is a term that must be used here. That's where the spot price was highe
by jmyeet 10mo ago
I'm surprised the WSJ didn't have any depth on what's happened and why.
"Backwardation" is a term that must be used here. That's where the spot price was higher than the future price.
For anyone unfamiliar, pretty much any commodity can trade under a futures contract. That means you as a producer or consumer can lock in a price at a future point. But you must come up with the commodity on that date or come up with the money and take delivery.
So imagine the spot (current) price is $70/oz but the future price is $65/oz. That means nobody is really buying at $70 when a price a month out is $65. So how does this happen/ Because dealers in the market have written futures contracts for silver they don't have and they will have to buy at the spot price to cover it at some point. They either don't want to or can't. Best case scenario, they're going to take a massive loss. Worst case, they are insolvent.
So there was little to no activity at the spot price even though it's at a record high. Refiners weren't buying.
There's a market for borrowing silver from people who have it and that market exploded this year as these dealers sought temporary relief for the futures contracts they had to cover.
All of this signaled that banks and refiners were essentially conspiring to suppress silver prices to remain solvent and that at some point the dam was going to burst.
And it did because China, who refines 60-70% of the world's silver, decided they would cease exports because of local demand for things like solar panels.
So here we are.
- igftiuhugfduh 10mo agoNo major bank has an unhedged silver position remotely large enough to risk its solvency, the market is just not large enough. When I read this kind of conspiracy post I think you're long and talking your book.
- jmyeet 10mo agoSo your position is that I have a long position and I somehow think that I can move the global silver market by commenting on HN? Do I have that right? This all might be new to you but it's not news and it's not controversial (eg [1]). [1]: https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-set-to-rally-as-trade-fears-ease-gold-silver-at-records/card/silver-prices-soar-to-new-records-as-physical-shortage-disrupts-markets-bank-of-america-sees-65-ahead--OJUjKR2W4PE9r6w3WmwZ https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-...
- hujnvcfhjjj 10mo ago[flagged]
- kiiyioopppooo 10mo agoTurns out it was a speculative pump-and-dump that duped the dumbest of the dumb, not the pumper's fake theory you loyally regurgitated. Shocking.
- kiiyioopppooo 10mo agoQuestion is will you join the pump for a third time after the first two dumps? Crystal ball says he gonna
- kiiyioopppooo 10mo agooh no its getting worse...