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My understanding is that it has happened. The oil market was tied to the USD. The BRICS have now implemented a payment system as robust as SWIFT system. Oil is

My understanding is that it has happened. The oil market was tied to the USD. The BRICS have now implemented a payment system as robust as SWIFT system. Oil is now being paid for using that system.

jeffbee 10mo ago
Panics about how oil is being traded in non-USD terms are as old as the internet and, in all likelihood, even older than that. You can find usenet slop from 20-30 years ago about the petro-euro and the "tehran oil bourse". Here's an old site that is/was daily panics about the fall of the dollar, from 15-25 years ago. http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/ http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/
- detourdog 10mo ago
  Nobody is panicking. BRICS has gotten steadily larger and is gaining as an alternative banking system. This is competition. This just requires more thoughtful strategies.
  - gigatexal 10mo ago
    The steady building up of alternatives will happen until one day the reserve currency status will change hands all of a sudden. I think the Fed could stem the whole thing by just issuing a stable coin itself pegged to the dollar and re-assert itself as the dominant currency/arbiter... but who knows. Maybe then it'd have insight into every transaction and be able to stem things with even more power than it can now. Nobody stays king forever. Maybe it's time the US is forced to balance its books and stop riding on cheap credit. Losing the power of the reserve currency and the power that that gives to SWIFT and things will take a lot of soft power away from the US. Without allies the US couldn't stop a united China, Russia, insert-other-would-be-ally-of-theirs in a world conflict. As another commenter said there's no leadership at teh top just chaos. People, countries, banks don't invest in chaos.
    - detourdog 10mo ago
      I think the Fed is under powered without consistent planning from our executive office. Erratic behavior does not instill confidence for people trying to rationally plan. I also think the US used the banking system to punish enough nations that an alternative became viable.
    - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
      > steady building up of alternatives will happen until one day the reserve currency status will change hands all of a sudden This is not how it has ever happened. Instead, we’ll see a gradual erosion as the world switches to multi-polarity and spheres of influence. (And, with decreasing international trade, every country’s reserve mix will vary.)
      - detourdog 10mo ago
        I agree that the next wave may not be dominated by a single currency. I also think that is a superior system. I think the BRICS system is based on honoring multiple currencies rather than using a single currency for settlement.
        JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
        > that is a superior system It’s more robust and less efficient. Transaction costs—and opportunities for middlemen—will increase. But the chances that your country’s economy is entirely shut down on the whim of one man in Washington is reduced. > the BRICS system is based on honoring multiple currencies The BRICS system is nonsense, as evidenced by basically nobody using it beyond a totem amount. Both the PBoC and RBI have superior settlement systems they could open up if they wanted to. Neither does because neither wants an unrestricted capital account.
        detourdog 10mo ago
        I agree that it has been unused but disagree that it will always go unused. I think that China is using the US current global antagonism to encourage others to participate. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-payment-system/ https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-payment-system/
  - blibble 10mo ago
    > This just requires more thoughtful strategies. US not in a good place then?
    - detourdog 10mo ago
      I would say it's a mystery. The US has corporations that are better funded than many nations. These corporations are also rationally managed and operate globally. As a patriot I hope that the US starts to utilize rational thought.
JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
> Oil is now being paid for using that system The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 1990s. With America a net oil exporter, it’s an entirely stupid model to keep running.
- detourdog 10mo ago
  I wish you would elaborate how being a net exporter relates to it being a myth. I don't see the connection. My point is that global trade of which oil is a major component needs to settle the books nightly. If the books aren't reconciled in an efficient manner trade has to slow down.
  - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
    > how being a net exporter relates to it being a myth. I don't see the connection Petrodollar a U.S. policy comes from the 1970s, when the U.S. guaranteed the House of Saud’s security in exchange for them selling their oil in dollars. The reason wasn’t to do some currency scheme, but to ensure the U.S. could always buy Saudi oil in a currency we controlled. Saudi Arabia then invested its profits in Treasuries, which closed the loop on Wall Street [1]. When America imported oil, keeping oil exporters close was strategically vital. Petrodollar recycling helped with that. Now that we don’t, it doesn’t. > global trade of which oil is a major component Like 4% [2][3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling [2] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Dominates-the-5-Trillion-Global-Commodity-Market.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Dominates-the-5-Tr... ~$1.5tn in 2021 [3] https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-december-2025-global-trade-poised-record-breaking-2025-flows https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-december-... 35tn in 2025
    - detourdog 10mo ago
      I see that as a side show to the overall banking system. I trying to express that this was a reactionary response to an immediate problem rather than a key part of banking.

My understanding is that it has happened. The oil market was tied to the USD. The BRICS have now implemented a payment system as robust as SWIFT system. Oil is now being paid for using that system.

jeffbee 10mo ago

Panics about how oil is being traded in non-USD terms are as old as the internet and, in all likelihood, even older than that. You can find usenet slop from 20-30 years ago about the petro-euro and the "tehran oil bourse". Here's an old site that is/was daily panics about the fall of the dollar, from 15-25 years ago. http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/ http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/

detourdog 10mo ago
Nobody is panicking. BRICS has gotten steadily larger and is gaining as an alternative banking system. This is competition. This just requires more thoughtful strategies.
- gigatexal 10mo ago
  The steady building up of alternatives will happen until one day the reserve currency status will change hands all of a sudden. I think the Fed could stem the whole thing by just issuing a stable coin itself pegged to the dollar and re-assert itself as the dominant currency/arbiter... but who knows. Maybe then it'd have insight into every transaction and be able to stem things with even more power than it can now. Nobody stays king forever. Maybe it's time the US is forced to balance its books and stop riding on cheap credit. Losing the power of the reserve currency and the power that that gives to SWIFT and things will take a lot of soft power away from the US. Without allies the US couldn't stop a united China, Russia, insert-other-would-be-ally-of-theirs in a world conflict. As another commenter said there's no leadership at teh top just chaos. People, countries, banks don't invest in chaos.
  - detourdog 10mo ago
    I think the Fed is under powered without consistent planning from our executive office. Erratic behavior does not instill confidence for people trying to rationally plan. I also think the US used the banking system to punish enough nations that an alternative became viable.
  - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
    > steady building up of alternatives will happen until one day the reserve currency status will change hands all of a sudden This is not how it has ever happened. Instead, we’ll see a gradual erosion as the world switches to multi-polarity and spheres of influence. (And, with decreasing international trade, every country’s reserve mix will vary.)
    - detourdog 10mo ago
      I agree that the next wave may not be dominated by a single currency. I also think that is a superior system. I think the BRICS system is based on honoring multiple currencies rather than using a single currency for settlement.
      - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
        > that is a superior system It’s more robust and less efficient. Transaction costs—and opportunities for middlemen—will increase. But the chances that your country’s economy is entirely shut down on the whim of one man in Washington is reduced. > the BRICS system is based on honoring multiple currencies The BRICS system is nonsense, as evidenced by basically nobody using it beyond a totem amount. Both the PBoC and RBI have superior settlement systems they could open up if they wanted to. Neither does because neither wants an unrestricted capital account.
        detourdog 10mo ago
        I agree that it has been unused but disagree that it will always go unused. I think that China is using the US current global antagonism to encourage others to participate. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-payment-system/ https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-payment-system/
- blibble 10mo ago
  > This just requires more thoughtful strategies. US not in a good place then?
  - detourdog 10mo ago
    I would say it's a mystery. The US has corporations that are better funded than many nations. These corporations are also rationally managed and operate globally. As a patriot I hope that the US starts to utilize rational thought.

JumpCrisscross 10mo ago

> Oil is now being paid for using that system The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 1990s. With America a net oil exporter, it’s an entirely stupid model to keep running.

detourdog 10mo ago
I wish you would elaborate how being a net exporter relates to it being a myth. I don't see the connection. My point is that global trade of which oil is a major component needs to settle the books nightly. If the books aren't reconciled in an efficient manner trade has to slow down.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > how being a net exporter relates to it being a myth. I don't see the connection Petrodollar a U.S. policy comes from the 1970s, when the U.S. guaranteed the House of Saud’s security in exchange for them selling their oil in dollars. The reason wasn’t to do some currency scheme, but to ensure the U.S. could always buy Saudi oil in a currency we controlled. Saudi Arabia then invested its profits in Treasuries, which closed the loop on Wall Street [1]. When America imported oil, keeping oil exporters close was strategically vital. Petrodollar recycling helped with that. Now that we don’t, it doesn’t. > global trade of which oil is a major component Like 4% [2][3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling [2] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Dominates-the-5-Trillion-Global-Commodity-Market.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Dominates-the-5-Tr... ~$1.5tn in 2021 [3] https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-december-2025-global-trade-poised-record-breaking-2025-flows https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-december-... 35tn in 2025
  - detourdog 10mo ago
    I see that as a side show to the overall banking system. I trying to express that this was a reactionary response to an immediate problem rather than a key part of banking.