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> Meanwhile the economy is tanking. NYT: US GDP Grew 4.3%, surging in 3rd Quarter 2025 - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/business/us-economy-consumer-spendi

> Meanwhile the economy is tanking. NYT: US GDP Grew 4.3%, surging in 3rd Quarter 2025 - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/business/us-economy-consumer-spending.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/business/us-economy-consu... WSJ: Consumers Power Strongest US Economic Growth in 2 years - https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q3-2025-2026-6cbd079e https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q3-2025-2026-6cbd079e The Guardian: US economy grew strongly in third quarter - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/23/us-economy-gdp-third-quarter https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/23/us-economy-...

cj 11mo ago
Meanwhile, consumer debt is at record highs. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
- andsoitis 11mo ago
  > consumer debt is at record highs. While consumer debt is at or near historical highs, it is in and of itself not a problem (broader economic risk). What you need to look at as well is debt burden ratios and repayment behavior, not just raw totals. Household debt service ratio (the share of disposable income spent on principal + interest payments) is well below historical crisis peaks (e.g., 2007–2008), suggesting households are currently spending a smaller share of income on debt payments than in past stress periods. While total household debt is at record levels (~$18 trillion+), debt as a share of income or GDP has not reached past crisis peaks like 2008. That means debt growth hasn’t outpaced income growth as dramatically as in previous crises. However, delinquency rates, especially for credit cards and student loans, are elevated, nearing or exceeding long-run highs outside recessions. Mortgage delinquency rates remain lower than unsecured debt categories, but have ticked up slightly. Because they're relatively stable, it mutes broader systemic risk for now.
  - jeffbee 11mo ago
    And you didn't even mention the population.
    - andsoitis 11mo ago
      > And you didn't even mention the population. household debt per capita is also trending up, so larger population is not the driver of increased consumer debt.
      - deleted 11mo ago
        [deleted]
      - jeffbee 11mo ago
        It is nonetheless true that to interpret such a chart as the one the GP posted you must at least mentally discount it for both population (which is +11% since 2008, the last consumer credit calamity) and the value of dollars (which are now ~67¢ vs. 2008). Debt service as fraction of HH income is in some ways easier to interpret. Anyway, even clicking through to the PDF linked from GP's front page shows that every metric of US consumer credit is at or near all-time bests.
  - esseph 11mo ago
    Car loans. "The percentage of subprime borrowers – those with credit scores below 670 – who are at least 60 days late on their car loans has doubled since 2021 to 6.43%, according to Fitch Ratings. That’s worse than during the past three recessions – during the Covid pandemic, the Great Recession or the dot-com bust." "America’s current subprime delinquency rate is at the second-highest level since the early 1990s. The only time it was higher: this past January. Cars are being repossessed at the highest rate since the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009."
bawis 11mo ago
The old problem with metrics like GDP, is that they consider the whole but not the parts, it is kinda saying that I and Musk have billions in wealth, but I am in debt.
- andsoitis 11mo ago
  > The old problem with metrics like GDP, is that they consider the whole but not the parts, it is kinda saying that I and Musk have billions in wealth, but I am in debt. Does this mean you also think that "the (US) economy is tanking" OR do you agree with me that the economy is NOT tanking?
  - jackling 11mo ago
    He saying that using a single metric like GDP isn't sufficient for claiming that the economy isn't tanking. The economy != GDP. For many regular people, it's terrible right now.
    - andsoitis 11mo ago
      See my other comments in this thread that surfaces other metrics like: debt burden ratios, repayment behavior, GDP per person at market exchange rates, Adjusted for price differences, and Adjusted for prices and hours worked. I'm not saying that Americans aren't under more economic strain than a few years ago (pre-pandemic), excluding 2007 - 2008. However, I think if someone is going to claim the economy is tanking OR that Americans are fast becoming destitute or something extreme like that, you gotta give some quantitative data to back up that claim.
      - gjm11 11mo ago
        Those metrics are all aggregate ones. A group containing Bill Gates plus one destitute homeless person $1M in debt has great metrics of that sort. Total debt is a tiny fraction of total income. Income per person is huge, and doesn't stop being huge when you adjust for price differences or hours worked or anything else you care to adjust for. But that destitute homeless person with a $1M debt is still destitute and homeless and $1M in debt. I haven't commented on "repayment behaviour" because your other comments don't actually mention that. Maybe there's something behind one of the links you posted that explains what you mean by it. I did have a quick look at the not-paywalled ones and didn't see anything of the kind. (The above isn't a claim that actually the US economy is in a very real sense tanking, or that not-very-rich Americans are heading for destitution, or anything else so concrete. Just pointing out why the things you've been posting don't seem like they address the objection being made.)
ryandrake 11mo ago
I think we should start separating discussion of “The Economy” from “human prosperity and wellbeing.” Because they are essentially two different things, only slightly related. The Economy can grow wildly while normal people are poor, suffering, and barely holding it together. I don’t care if corporations are doing great or if the GDP is high, if everything I need costs 3X what it used to and Im not sure if I’ll be employed next week. While you are probably right in that The Economy, technically is growing, it doesn’t feel like it to normal people I know.
- andsoitis 11mo ago
  > I think we should start separating discussion of “The Economy” from “human prosperity and wellbeing.” Do you think Americans' prosperity and wellbeing is tanking? We can still look at quantitative and qualitative data. The Economist ran a story in July "What is the richest country in the world in 2025"[1] in which they compared economies in three different ways: GDP per person at market exchange rates, Adjusted for price differences, and Adjusted for prices and hours worked. Against those three metrics, the US is ranked in 4th, 7th, and 6th positions. Even these statistics may need further interpretation or further adjustment (the article does a great job explaining why adjustments are needed for places like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Ireland, Luxembourg). > While you are probably right in that The Economy, technically is growing, it doesn’t feel like it to normal people I know. Pew's research shows that most Americans rate the US economy negatively, with a strong partisan divide. 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rat the economy as excellent or good (up 8 points from April) while only 10% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners say so. Arguments for "better off" than, say, 3 years ago: strong job market, economic growth, reduced debt burden. Arguments for "worse off" than, say, 3 years ago: high cost of living. Notwithstanding the pessimism and the visible fact that people are not as economically strong as a pre-pandemic (but certainly much more than 2007 - 2008), I don't know that I would say the US economy is "tanking" OR that Americans are becoming destitute. [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/07/18/what-is-the-richest-country-in-the-world-in-2025 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/07/18/what-is-...
  - ryandrake 11mo ago
throw-12-16 11mo ago
Anyone who trusts numbers coming out of the Trump admin is in for a big surprise.
aprilthird2021 11mo ago
If you look at all quarters in a chart it's not substantially different from the patterns we saw last year. We're just 2 quarters from when we posted a GDP contraction 1% lower YOY (this quarter is 1% higher YOY).
scotty79 11mo ago
If you subtract AI companies, it has no growth.
didibus 11mo ago
That's quite a shallow view: Unemployment has increased. Number of gig workers is at an all time high. Layoffs have continued. Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed. Inflation is not under control. Buy now pay later usage is up as much as consumer spending is. Income and wealth inequality are near records high. GDP and consumer spending were also seen peaking before the last 5 recessions as well...
FrontierProject 11mo ago
The envoy from the ivory tower has arrived to inform us that actually, we are building taller steeples than ever before.
silisili 11mo ago
One thing I've learned in this near half century on this Earth... People always think the economy is tanking. I've heard "not in this economy" as an excuse every single year of my adult life. In retrospect, even in the boom years.

cj 11mo ago

Meanwhile, consumer debt is at record highs. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

andsoitis 11mo ago
> consumer debt is at record highs. While consumer debt is at or near historical highs, it is in and of itself not a problem (broader economic risk). What you need to look at as well is debt burden ratios and repayment behavior, not just raw totals. Household debt service ratio (the share of disposable income spent on principal + interest payments) is well below historical crisis peaks (e.g., 2007–2008), suggesting households are currently spending a smaller share of income on debt payments than in past stress periods. While total household debt is at record levels (~$18 trillion+), debt as a share of income or GDP has not reached past crisis peaks like 2008. That means debt growth hasn’t outpaced income growth as dramatically as in previous crises. However, delinquency rates, especially for credit cards and student loans, are elevated, nearing or exceeding long-run highs outside recessions. Mortgage delinquency rates remain lower than unsecured debt categories, but have ticked up slightly. Because they're relatively stable, it mutes broader systemic risk for now.
- jeffbee 11mo ago
  And you didn't even mention the population.
  - andsoitis 11mo ago
    > And you didn't even mention the population. household debt per capita is also trending up, so larger population is not the driver of increased consumer debt.
    - deleted 11mo ago
      [deleted]
    - jeffbee 11mo ago
      It is nonetheless true that to interpret such a chart as the one the GP posted you must at least mentally discount it for both population (which is +11% since 2008, the last consumer credit calamity) and the value of dollars (which are now ~67¢ vs. 2008). Debt service as fraction of HH income is in some ways easier to interpret. Anyway, even clicking through to the PDF linked from GP's front page shows that every metric of US consumer credit is at or near all-time bests.
- esseph 11mo ago
  Car loans. "The percentage of subprime borrowers – those with credit scores below 670 – who are at least 60 days late on their car loans has doubled since 2021 to 6.43%, according to Fitch Ratings. That’s worse than during the past three recessions – during the Covid pandemic, the Great Recession or the dot-com bust." "America’s current subprime delinquency rate is at the second-highest level since the early 1990s. The only time it was higher: this past January. Cars are being repossessed at the highest rate since the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009."

bawis 11mo ago

The old problem with metrics like GDP, is that they consider the whole but not the parts, it is kinda saying that I and Musk have billions in wealth, but I am in debt.

andsoitis 11mo ago
> The old problem with metrics like GDP, is that they consider the whole but not the parts, it is kinda saying that I and Musk have billions in wealth, but I am in debt. Does this mean you also think that "the (US) economy is tanking" OR do you agree with me that the economy is NOT tanking?
- jackling 11mo ago
  He saying that using a single metric like GDP isn't sufficient for claiming that the economy isn't tanking. The economy != GDP. For many regular people, it's terrible right now.
  - andsoitis 11mo ago
    See my other comments in this thread that surfaces other metrics like: debt burden ratios, repayment behavior, GDP per person at market exchange rates, Adjusted for price differences, and Adjusted for prices and hours worked. I'm not saying that Americans aren't under more economic strain than a few years ago (pre-pandemic), excluding 2007 - 2008. However, I think if someone is going to claim the economy is tanking OR that Americans are fast becoming destitute or something extreme like that, you gotta give some quantitative data to back up that claim.
    - gjm11 11mo ago
      Those metrics are all aggregate ones. A group containing Bill Gates plus one destitute homeless person $1M in debt has great metrics of that sort. Total debt is a tiny fraction of total income. Income per person is huge, and doesn't stop being huge when you adjust for price differences or hours worked or anything else you care to adjust for. But that destitute homeless person with a $1M debt is still destitute and homeless and $1M in debt. I haven't commented on "repayment behaviour" because your other comments don't actually mention that. Maybe there's something behind one of the links you posted that explains what you mean by it. I did have a quick look at the not-paywalled ones and didn't see anything of the kind. (The above isn't a claim that actually the US economy is in a very real sense tanking, or that not-very-rich Americans are heading for destitution, or anything else so concrete. Just pointing out why the things you've been posting don't seem like they address the objection being made.)

ryandrake 11mo ago

I think we should start separating discussion of “The Economy” from “human prosperity and wellbeing.” Because they are essentially two different things, only slightly related. The Economy can grow wildly while normal people are poor, suffering, and barely holding it together. I don’t care if corporations are doing great or if the GDP is high, if everything I need costs 3X what it used to and Im not sure if I’ll be employed next week. While you are probably right in that The Economy, technically is growing, it doesn’t feel like it to normal people I know.

andsoitis 11mo ago
> I think we should start separating discussion of “The Economy” from “human prosperity and wellbeing.” Do you think Americans' prosperity and wellbeing is tanking? We can still look at quantitative and qualitative data. The Economist ran a story in July "What is the richest country in the world in 2025"[1] in which they compared economies in three different ways: GDP per person at market exchange rates, Adjusted for price differences, and Adjusted for prices and hours worked. Against those three metrics, the US is ranked in 4th, 7th, and 6th positions. Even these statistics may need further interpretation or further adjustment (the article does a great job explaining why adjustments are needed for places like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Ireland, Luxembourg). > While you are probably right in that The Economy, technically is growing, it doesn’t feel like it to normal people I know. Pew's research shows that most Americans rate the US economy negatively, with a strong partisan divide. 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rat the economy as excellent or good (up 8 points from April) while only 10% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners say so. Arguments for "better off" than, say, 3 years ago: strong job market, economic growth, reduced debt burden. Arguments for "worse off" than, say, 3 years ago: high cost of living. Notwithstanding the pessimism and the visible fact that people are not as economically strong as a pre-pandemic (but certainly much more than 2007 - 2008), I don't know that I would say the US economy is "tanking" OR that Americans are becoming destitute. [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/07/18/what-is-the-richest-country-in-the-world-in-2025 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/07/18/what-is-...
- ryandrake 11mo ago

throw-12-16 11mo ago

Anyone who trusts numbers coming out of the Trump admin is in for a big surprise.

aprilthird2021 11mo ago

If you look at all quarters in a chart it's not substantially different from the patterns we saw last year. We're just 2 quarters from when we posted a GDP contraction 1% lower YOY (this quarter is 1% higher YOY).

scotty79 11mo ago

If you subtract AI companies, it has no growth.

didibus 11mo ago

That's quite a shallow view: Unemployment has increased. Number of gig workers is at an all time high. Layoffs have continued. Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed. Inflation is not under control. Buy now pay later usage is up as much as consumer spending is. Income and wealth inequality are near records high. GDP and consumer spending were also seen peaking before the last 5 recessions as well...

FrontierProject 11mo ago

The envoy from the ivory tower has arrived to inform us that actually, we are building taller steeples than ever before.

silisili 11mo ago

One thing I've learned in this near half century on this Earth... People always think the economy is tanking. I've heard "not in this economy" as an excuse every single year of my adult life. In retrospect, even in the boom years.