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I was just having a conversation (argument) with my MIL about this. She claims that people have felt that SS would run out of money before they retire her entir

I was just having a conversation (argument) with my MIL about this. She claims that people have felt that SS would run out of money before they retire her entire life. Has this sentiment been tracked at all? I certainly feel like I (aged mid-30s) will not be benefitting, but the common argument is that the Ponzi scheme will find a way to perpetuate for longer

ashleyn 10mo ago
Impossible to tell, but there's factors making it more likely to happen this time than in previous generations. Probably the biggest factor is the declining population, which no government around the world has been able to materialise an answer to. My personal retirement plans assume no social security. Anything I may get in old age is a nice bonus, but in my planning, it's not the beef.
- kevin_thibedeau 10mo ago
  Couple that with the out of control deficit spending. The US is bankrupting itself and the music will eventually stop.
  - ashleyn 10mo ago
    There's a damn good reason i hold very few bonds.
- amypetrik8 10mo ago
  >which no government around the world has been able to materialise an answer to. I disagree. The whole hot political topic of "illegal immigration" is as a side effect - seemingly a successful solution to motivate (foreign) people to bump the population. Specifically - "if you have a kid in the US, the kid is automatically a citizen, you don't have to pay taxes, you don't need a green card, you work under the table so make $0 on paper and thus qualify for free food and housing (welfare) and free healthcare (medicaid)". Honestly if we gave such a deal to young non-foreign american women free and clear, likely we'd be seeing a lot more childbirths. Despite all the economic burden and political strife this program has caused, it may in fact extend the life of the nation and welfare.
bena 10mo ago
Social Security counts on there being a larger workforce every year. If there's ever a significant population crunch of working age people, it would be in trouble. In 2018, the cost of the Social Security program exceeded total revenues for the first time. At current rates, Social Security is projected to be insolvent by 2034. The only ways to mitigate this is to spend less or make more. But no one wants to pay more and no one wants to give up anything.
- bluGill 10mo ago
  That early-mid 2030s prediction has been consistent all my life. It has gone up a little as rules changed but nobody was ever willing for the big reforms that could make it work long term.
analog31 10mo ago
This is anecdotal, but I remember this sentiment becoming widespread in the 1980s, along with the imminent hyperinflation and currency collapse. Political candidates (Carter and Reagan) promised reductions in federal spending, but couldn't get past the obvious lack of any real discretionary control due to the size of the biggest ticket items such as the entitlements and military. The conservative message of "entitlements will make you immoral" was replaced by "entitlements are unsustainable," making it sound like serious economics but without any real basis.

ashleyn 10mo ago

Impossible to tell, but there's factors making it more likely to happen this time than in previous generations. Probably the biggest factor is the declining population, which no government around the world has been able to materialise an answer to. My personal retirement plans assume no social security. Anything I may get in old age is a nice bonus, but in my planning, it's not the beef.

kevin_thibedeau 10mo ago
Couple that with the out of control deficit spending. The US is bankrupting itself and the music will eventually stop.
- ashleyn 10mo ago
  There's a damn good reason i hold very few bonds.
amypetrik8 10mo ago
>which no government around the world has been able to materialise an answer to. I disagree. The whole hot political topic of "illegal immigration" is as a side effect - seemingly a successful solution to motivate (foreign) people to bump the population. Specifically - "if you have a kid in the US, the kid is automatically a citizen, you don't have to pay taxes, you don't need a green card, you work under the table so make $0 on paper and thus qualify for free food and housing (welfare) and free healthcare (medicaid)". Honestly if we gave such a deal to young non-foreign american women free and clear, likely we'd be seeing a lot more childbirths. Despite all the economic burden and political strife this program has caused, it may in fact extend the life of the nation and welfare.

bena 10mo ago

Social Security counts on there being a larger workforce every year. If there's ever a significant population crunch of working age people, it would be in trouble. In 2018, the cost of the Social Security program exceeded total revenues for the first time. At current rates, Social Security is projected to be insolvent by 2034. The only ways to mitigate this is to spend less or make more. But no one wants to pay more and no one wants to give up anything.

bluGill 10mo ago
That early-mid 2030s prediction has been consistent all my life. It has gone up a little as rules changed but nobody was ever willing for the big reforms that could make it work long term.

analog31 10mo ago

This is anecdotal, but I remember this sentiment becoming widespread in the 1980s, along with the imminent hyperinflation and currency collapse. Political candidates (Carter and Reagan) promised reductions in federal spending, but couldn't get past the obvious lack of any real discretionary control due to the size of the biggest ticket items such as the entitlements and military. The conservative message of "entitlements will make you immoral" was replaced by "entitlements are unsustainable," making it sound like serious economics but without any real basis.