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I hope you realize that China's coal and oil use for electricity is at an all-time high and increasing. They have installed more coal capacity since 2020 than t

I hope you realize that China's coal and oil use for electricity is at an all-time high and increasing. They have installed more coal capacity since 2020 than the US has total. US coal usage peaked circa 2000 and has decreased for the last 2 decades. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country?stackMode=absolute&country=~CHN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-sou...

triceratops 10mo ago
> They have installed more coal capacity since 2020 than the US has total 80% or more of new electricity generation in China is renewable. They build coal capacity but they don't use more of it. This year their absolute carbon emissions decreased. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292
- simonsarris 10mo ago
  That article is about emissions, not admixture. If you look at the source of that article, which they link to: https://carbonmonitor.org/variation https://carbonmonitor.org/variation First off we can now look at the full year instead of 6 months of data, its no longer US +4.2% and China -2.7%, its US +2.0% and China -2.3% China's 2025 YoY emissions decline is almost all due to a decline in industry, not power (1.8% of their 2.3% decline, in other words, most of it). It's understandable to have a lower year if you have an economic slowdown. Russia also had a decline, not for green reasons.
  - triceratops 10mo ago
    Their economy grew 3% this year and they cut emissions. https://rhg.com/research/chinas-economy-rightsizing-2025-looking-ahead-to-2026/ https://rhg.com/research/chinas-economy-rightsizing-2025-loo... "economic slowdown" is an exaggeration.
    - simonsarris 10mo ago
      A 3% GDP growth this year is a slowdown from 2024. Did you read this paper? I encourage you to at least read the abstract. It discusses whether "China's 2025 economic growth story turns on whether investment merely declined in the second half of the year or collapsed."
      - ProjectArcturis 10mo ago
        You seem to be confusing first and second derivatives.
        simonsarris 10mo ago
        China had an emissions decline in 2025 that is substantially attributable to a decline in industry, per their first source. The decline in industry is plausible so long as GDP growth in 2025 is lower than GDP growth in 2024, and is additionally supported by the newly introduced source that the commentor did not read. Yes, it is possible to have an economic slowdown and a positive GDP print. In general it's weird to say '"economic slowdown" is an exaggeration' and then link to something that talks about the economic slowdown.
        triceratops 10mo ago
        I don't know what "decline in industry" means here tbh. Emissions from industry went down, but GDP still went up. Does that mean there's "less industry" or "more industry"? How do you measure "industry"? Maybe their industry just became more efficient. Total emissions also went down. Yeah GDP went up less than last year but that hardly matters when we're talking about an emissions reduction. Not "less emissions growth than last year", an absolute decrease.
timeon 10mo ago
Article is about US blocking energy from wind. You are (correctly) saying that China is increasing energy from coal and oil. What is your point? Can you elaborate how this is relevant?
stephen_g 10mo ago
New coal data is out just a few days ago [1], it's plateaued globally and expected to start to decline. China's consumption this year was about the same as last, and looking to drop a bit, so likely old coal plants were being retired at about the same rate as newer ones were built, and that will start to go the other way (more retired than built). 1. https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-has-reached-a-plateau-and-may-well-decline-slightly-by-2030 https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-has-reached-a-pl...

triceratops 10mo ago

> They have installed more coal capacity since 2020 than the US has total 80% or more of new electricity generation in China is renewable. They build coal capacity but they don't use more of it. This year their absolute carbon emissions decreased. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292

simonsarris 10mo ago
That article is about emissions, not admixture. If you look at the source of that article, which they link to: https://carbonmonitor.org/variation https://carbonmonitor.org/variation First off we can now look at the full year instead of 6 months of data, its no longer US +4.2% and China -2.7%, its US +2.0% and China -2.3% China's 2025 YoY emissions decline is almost all due to a decline in industry, not power (1.8% of their 2.3% decline, in other words, most of it). It's understandable to have a lower year if you have an economic slowdown. Russia also had a decline, not for green reasons.
- triceratops 10mo ago
  Their economy grew 3% this year and they cut emissions. https://rhg.com/research/chinas-economy-rightsizing-2025-looking-ahead-to-2026/ https://rhg.com/research/chinas-economy-rightsizing-2025-loo... "economic slowdown" is an exaggeration.
  - simonsarris 10mo ago
    A 3% GDP growth this year is a slowdown from 2024. Did you read this paper? I encourage you to at least read the abstract. It discusses whether "China's 2025 economic growth story turns on whether investment merely declined in the second half of the year or collapsed."
    - ProjectArcturis 10mo ago
      You seem to be confusing first and second derivatives.
      - simonsarris 10mo ago
        China had an emissions decline in 2025 that is substantially attributable to a decline in industry, per their first source. The decline in industry is plausible so long as GDP growth in 2025 is lower than GDP growth in 2024, and is additionally supported by the newly introduced source that the commentor did not read. Yes, it is possible to have an economic slowdown and a positive GDP print. In general it's weird to say '"economic slowdown" is an exaggeration' and then link to something that talks about the economic slowdown.
        triceratops 10mo ago
        I don't know what "decline in industry" means here tbh. Emissions from industry went down, but GDP still went up. Does that mean there's "less industry" or "more industry"? How do you measure "industry"? Maybe their industry just became more efficient. Total emissions also went down. Yeah GDP went up less than last year but that hardly matters when we're talking about an emissions reduction. Not "less emissions growth than last year", an absolute decrease.

timeon 10mo ago

Article is about US blocking energy from wind. You are (correctly) saying that China is increasing energy from coal and oil. What is your point? Can you elaborate how this is relevant?

stephen_g 10mo ago

New coal data is out just a few days ago [1], it's plateaued globally and expected to start to decline. China's consumption this year was about the same as last, and looking to drop a bit, so likely old coal plants were being retired at about the same rate as newer ones were built, and that will start to go the other way (more retired than built). 1. https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-has-reached-a-plateau-and-may-well-decline-slightly-by-2030 https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-has-reached-a-pl...