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I think it's very likely counterfactually better than USSR (now Russian) or Chinese hegemony. Imagine if Al Gore had won 2000 - America at the helm while growin

by meowface 10mo ago

I think it's very likely counterfactually better than USSR (now Russian) or Chinese hegemony. Imagine if Al Gore had won 2000 - America at the helm while growing increasingly wary of violent foreign interventions seems like the least bad path for Earth. (I am not sure if such a path still remains.) China ultra-liberalizing and becoming a democracy and then the hegemon could be an okay path but I am not too optimistic about the prospects of those first parts.

lm28469 10mo ago
The good thing is that we'll be able to fact check this comment in 50 years
embedding-shape 10mo ago
> I think it's very likely counterfactually better than USSR (now Russian) or Chinese hegemony. Why is it either or the other? Just because the US happens to turn inwards and stop acting like the world police, doesn't mean that other countries suddenly start dreaming of world domination. China and Russian both have plenty of problems in their home fronts and surrounding areas.
- estearum 10mo ago
  That has never stopped Russia before
- meowface 10mo ago
  It seems likely that at least for a few more centuries, humanity and Earth are going to play the typical geopolitical games they've played during the past centuries. China and Russia are consistently led by ruthless people who like power. Plus, even if China does only just conquer Taiwan and then leaves everyone else alone as the hegemon, there's still the matter of them oppressing ~20% of the humans on the planet (their own people). Even if it's the sort of oppression that you don't necessarily ever notice so long as you always stay in line.
- nosianu 10mo ago
  > China and Russian both have plenty of problems in their home fronts and surrounding areas. Do you know how Russia got so large? They started out small. They solve such problems by doing the one thing they have always done: expanding. Successful conquest temporarily mitigates internal problems, injustices and inefficiencies. Video: The History of Russia: Every Year - https://youtu.be/uCIp3CF33ms https://youtu.be/uCIp3CF33ms
  - embedding-shape 10mo ago
    > Do you know how Russia got so large? They started out small. Do you know how literally any country got the size it is today? They started out small. Some of them are still small today, but they might be larger tomorrow. Some of them will be smaller tomorrow. This is how the world has function and continues to function. Not sure how this could be surprising to anyone out there, even less how you think someone wouldn't understand this very basic fact about countries.
    - nosianu 10mo ago
      WTF??? If you are trying to make a counterpoint, try again, hopefully with an actual argument. And maybe, maybe, you take into account that the size of Russia and its expansionism are on a whole other level and still ongoing, and that other countries are not like that at all, not even remotely.
      - embedding-shape 10mo ago
        How is that different from how US acted after 1776? Or China during Qin dynasty? Yes, today Russia is trying to expand, which they've done before, like most countries in the world. Not sure what makes them special in that regard. Did any country start out large? Since your main point seems to have been that Russia started out small, in contrast to some other country you're trying to reference that apparently started out large, but I'm not sure which one you're trying to reference here.
        10mo ago

lm28469 10mo ago

The good thing is that we'll be able to fact check this comment in 50 years

embedding-shape 10mo ago

> I think it's very likely counterfactually better than USSR (now Russian) or Chinese hegemony. Why is it either or the other? Just because the US happens to turn inwards and stop acting like the world police, doesn't mean that other countries suddenly start dreaming of world domination. China and Russian both have plenty of problems in their home fronts and surrounding areas.

estearum 10mo ago
That has never stopped Russia before
meowface 10mo ago
It seems likely that at least for a few more centuries, humanity and Earth are going to play the typical geopolitical games they've played during the past centuries. China and Russia are consistently led by ruthless people who like power. Plus, even if China does only just conquer Taiwan and then leaves everyone else alone as the hegemon, there's still the matter of them oppressing ~20% of the humans on the planet (their own people). Even if it's the sort of oppression that you don't necessarily ever notice so long as you always stay in line.
nosianu 10mo ago
> China and Russian both have plenty of problems in their home fronts and surrounding areas. Do you know how Russia got so large? They started out small. They solve such problems by doing the one thing they have always done: expanding. Successful conquest temporarily mitigates internal problems, injustices and inefficiencies. Video: The History of Russia: Every Year - https://youtu.be/uCIp3CF33ms https://youtu.be/uCIp3CF33ms
- embedding-shape 10mo ago
  > Do you know how Russia got so large? They started out small. Do you know how literally any country got the size it is today? They started out small. Some of them are still small today, but they might be larger tomorrow. Some of them will be smaller tomorrow. This is how the world has function and continues to function. Not sure how this could be surprising to anyone out there, even less how you think someone wouldn't understand this very basic fact about countries.
  - nosianu 10mo ago
    WTF??? If you are trying to make a counterpoint, try again, hopefully with an actual argument. And maybe, maybe, you take into account that the size of Russia and its expansionism are on a whole other level and still ongoing, and that other countries are not like that at all, not even remotely.
    - embedding-shape 10mo ago
      How is that different from how US acted after 1776? Or China during Qin dynasty? Yes, today Russia is trying to expand, which they've done before, like most countries in the world. Not sure what makes them special in that regard. Did any country start out large? Since your main point seems to have been that Russia started out small, in contrast to some other country you're trying to reference that apparently started out large, but I'm not sure which one you're trying to reference here.
      - 10mo ago