It unfortunately didn't get very much attention here at the time (2021), but "Sigmoids behaving badly: why they usually cannot predict the future as well as the

It unfortunately didn't get very much attention here at the time (2021), but "Sigmoids behaving badly: why they usually cannot predict the future as well as they seem to promise" at https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08065 https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08065 is related.