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My apologies to the guy who first proposed that the shootings were related--I thought that was a real stretch.
by cafard 10mo ago
My apologies to the guy who first proposed that the shootings were related--I thought that was a real stretch.
- binary132 10mo agoyeah, very surprising
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- SoftTalker 10mo agoIt was a stretch, but that didn't mean it wasn't possible.
- energy123 10mo agoUnless there was a reason to believe they were related, I wouldn't apologize to a broken clock.
- notKilgoreTrout 10mo agoThe arguments against seemed to show the weakness of frequentists in practical deduction.. It certainly could have been a domestic where the police already knew but weren't communicating it but otherwise most suggestions didn't match the statistics of the specific demographic/locations to compete with the anomaly of a total AWOL with good luck, nothing to lose and a connection to top academia who wasn't dead or in jail.
- ndarray 10mo agoThere are two types of broken clocks. One is always suspicious, the other thinks nothing ever happens. One is more often right than the other, but both are equally broken.
- energy123 10mo agoThere's a world of difference between "nothing happens with 100% probability" and "nothing happens with 98% probability", even though they can look like the same thing when talking casually.
- ndarray 9mo agoIf you always say "it's 98% nothing", you're still broken because you'll err on the side of "nothing" in all cases where it's something. Your false negative rate would be 100%. For your statements to have any value, you'll have to get at least some of the 2% where it's something right.