4 ms·

Good for them, I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ). Don't get me wrong, I want the west to succeed, bu

Good for them, I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ). Don't get me wrong, I want the west to succeed, but a competition from China is exactly what is needed. They're building datacenters in arizona and india for TSMC because of this competition. I really hope we get past historical political rivalry and get along with China better. Competition is good, hostility sucks.

standardUser 10mo ago
The more China advances domestically, especially in this area, the less it has to gain from invading Taiwan. China is getting to the point where the conquest is finally doable (rapidly advancing and massive military, plus a weak US president), but the potential gains are diminishing year to year. I'd speculate that if they don't invade during Trump's term, they never will, and will pursue a different course down the road. China is nothing if not patient.
- wahern 10mo ago
  The motivation to invade Taiwan is rooted in the PRC's political and historical narrative about it's legitimacy and purpose, a narrative internalized by most Chinese, including especially the military. It's in a sense existential, not economic or realpolitik, and I don't see that motivation diminishing anytime soon. If anything it's growing stronger, as evidenced by the suppression in Hong Kong, which made zero sense without reference to how Chinese political institutions sustain themselves. The risk of an invasion sparking a conflict with the US is primarily what held them back, and at best economic and foreign strategic pain only secondarily, but all those risks diminish by the day, leaving China's raw existential motivation unchecked.
  - spaceman_2020 10mo ago
    The biggest victory for CCP will be Taiwan willingly joining PRC. Nothing else will be a better testament to the CCP model Reunification with the mainland isn’t a completely unpopular idea in Taiwan. The economic ties are already extremely deep (largest trading partner by far).
- dluan 10mo ago
  Reunification in Taiwan has nothing to do with chips, and militarily PRC was able to do so a long time ago. The political will in PRC to "kill other Chinese" is zero.
  - energy123 10mo ago
    > The political will in PRC to "kill other Chinese" is zero. Counts for nothing, these narratives are built on sand. Russians also saw Ukrainians as "brothers", as did South/North Koreans before the war, among countless other examples.
    - konart 10mo ago
      >Russians also saw "see". Many people in Russia view this war as a civil one.
  - TiredOfLife 10mo ago
    Is that's why China has started building loads of troop transport ships recently? To peacefully transport them to Taiwan?
  - woctordho 10mo ago
    Their is always a political will in China to kill other Chinese since thousands of years ago. This works vastly different from the western humanitarian philosophy.
- KylerAce 10mo ago
  Invading Taiwan isn't about chips at all, and in fact chips are actively disincentivizing invasion. Semiconductor fabs and the oodles of atomically precise ultra clean and ultra expensive equipment inside absolutely do not mix well with bombs.
mywittyname 10mo ago
> get along with China better. This will probably never happen. All countries are rivals, and the semblance of cooperation is really just the manifestation of a power imbalance. China grew into their big boy pants and can hold their own on the international stage. They have no need to be cooperative because they are in the International Superpower Club. Their strategic ambitions do not align with those of their rivals, and they are strong enough to not need to play nice anymore. Now that the US has also dropped their visage of being the benevolent world leader, there's even less reason for China to pretend to be cooperative. At this point, it's a matter of who is more apt to invade your country, US or China? And you buy weapons from the other one. Maybe we see more "cooperation" between China and the EU or South America. But that will be entirely because those regions are under duress.
- kulahan 10mo ago
  You don’t think NZ and Aus are truly good friends?
- subw00f 10mo ago
  Yeah, all those countries China has invaded really shows how apt they are to do that.
  - energy123 10mo ago
    Please spare us. China invaded Vietnam to protect Pol Pot while he was mass killing millions of innocent civilians. They have territorial disputes with over 10 countries, which they've been unable to decisively act on because those neighbors either have nukes (India) or are protected by a more powerful country (US). Not because their government is some benevolent entity. They're basically an authoritarian dictatorship that's kind of cornered at the moment (like Saddam after the Gulf War) but would kill a bunch of people and expand if the US wasn't around.
    - spaceman_2020 10mo ago
      China has resolved a lot of its border disputes already. The border disputes with Kazakhstan, Krgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nepal, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam, Tajikstan have all been resolved
energy123 10mo ago
> I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ). Isn't that "other than" clause a big deal, though? I've read a survey and a number of articles from defense and foreign policy types, and the general feeling is there's a ~25% chance that China will invade Taiwan this decade. That's really damn big. If there's rollback in Taiwan then the first island chain could plausibly fall, or if not you will surely see Japan and maybe South Korea nuclearize. Why must we keep assuming the best with these security calculations instead of believing someone when they keep saying what they're going to do?
jjcc 10mo ago
Give you some more historical context: China (ROC) planned to invade west China until the plan was given up in 60's. Both sides wanted reunification by force. When China's navy and air force was superior in early 1950's, it tried to "establish blockade of trade with west China (PRC) along the Chinese coast" (1) China eventually gave up the plan in 1960's not because it didn't want to but because the balance of the power weighting over to west China. In 80's and 90's both agree to make peace given the premise that both sides belong to China. TSMC was a product of industry policy from None-democratic China government. The founder Morris Chang ， an American born in the west China ，never visited China before 50 years old. Both China (before 90') and west China used to want reunification , by force or not. China changed a bit later. The motivation of west China to invade China has little to do with chips although US thought that's the critical incentive. West China will still let TSMC provide the chips to the world in case it would have successfully invaded China in my view. 1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Tuapse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Tuapse
- notepad0x90 10mo ago
  Thanks. In my view, the PRC is making a huge strategic mistake. As is Taiwan. The PRC is too focused on full control, normally they're more long-term-minded, but in this case they're rushing it too much. Establishing a trade-bloc and peaceful relations first and then aiming for full reunification would be the smart play, since there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion. Taiwan is too dependent on the west, it too should know it can't actually resist an invasion, and that the west won't do much when it comes down to it. Its interests would have been served best if it sought good trade relations with the PRC, so that the PRC will continue to rely on TSMC. it should be providing west-china with all the nice chips the west is forbidding it from having. It should have been more like india and less like south korea.
  - zonghao 10mo ago
    > there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion. The reunification of Taiwan is a fundamental national policy, enshrined in the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. The primary intention behind the desire for national reunification stems from the realization of reunification itself, rather than from other interests. This reflects a complex national sentiment and shared aspiration. We consider the people of Taiwan to be our compatriots. Therefore, even though our military strength far surpasses that of Taiwan, the mainland is unwilling to resort to force and has always hoped for peaceful reunification. This is because we do not wish to harm or even kill any of our compatriots in the process of achieving it. Essentially, it has been the United States that has been obstructing this unification process and using propaganda tools to influence public perception in Taiwan. As a result, many Taiwanese people are shocked by the stark difference between the mainland and the propaganda portrays them when they visit. It is truly baffling that, despite living so close to the mainland, their understanding of it is almost in sync with that of Americans.

standardUser 10mo ago

The more China advances domestically, especially in this area, the less it has to gain from invading Taiwan. China is getting to the point where the conquest is finally doable (rapidly advancing and massive military, plus a weak US president), but the potential gains are diminishing year to year. I'd speculate that if they don't invade during Trump's term, they never will, and will pursue a different course down the road. China is nothing if not patient.

wahern 10mo ago
The motivation to invade Taiwan is rooted in the PRC's political and historical narrative about it's legitimacy and purpose, a narrative internalized by most Chinese, including especially the military. It's in a sense existential, not economic or realpolitik, and I don't see that motivation diminishing anytime soon. If anything it's growing stronger, as evidenced by the suppression in Hong Kong, which made zero sense without reference to how Chinese political institutions sustain themselves. The risk of an invasion sparking a conflict with the US is primarily what held them back, and at best economic and foreign strategic pain only secondarily, but all those risks diminish by the day, leaving China's raw existential motivation unchecked.
- spaceman_2020 10mo ago
  The biggest victory for CCP will be Taiwan willingly joining PRC. Nothing else will be a better testament to the CCP model Reunification with the mainland isn’t a completely unpopular idea in Taiwan. The economic ties are already extremely deep (largest trading partner by far).
dluan 10mo ago
Reunification in Taiwan has nothing to do with chips, and militarily PRC was able to do so a long time ago. The political will in PRC to "kill other Chinese" is zero.
- energy123 10mo ago
  > The political will in PRC to "kill other Chinese" is zero. Counts for nothing, these narratives are built on sand. Russians also saw Ukrainians as "brothers", as did South/North Koreans before the war, among countless other examples.
  - konart 10mo ago
    >Russians also saw "see". Many people in Russia view this war as a civil one.
- TiredOfLife 10mo ago
  Is that's why China has started building loads of troop transport ships recently? To peacefully transport them to Taiwan?
- woctordho 10mo ago
  Their is always a political will in China to kill other Chinese since thousands of years ago. This works vastly different from the western humanitarian philosophy.
KylerAce 10mo ago
Invading Taiwan isn't about chips at all, and in fact chips are actively disincentivizing invasion. Semiconductor fabs and the oodles of atomically precise ultra clean and ultra expensive equipment inside absolutely do not mix well with bombs.

mywittyname 10mo ago

> get along with China better. This will probably never happen. All countries are rivals, and the semblance of cooperation is really just the manifestation of a power imbalance. China grew into their big boy pants and can hold their own on the international stage. They have no need to be cooperative because they are in the International Superpower Club. Their strategic ambitions do not align with those of their rivals, and they are strong enough to not need to play nice anymore. Now that the US has also dropped their visage of being the benevolent world leader, there's even less reason for China to pretend to be cooperative. At this point, it's a matter of who is more apt to invade your country, US or China? And you buy weapons from the other one. Maybe we see more "cooperation" between China and the EU or South America. But that will be entirely because those regions are under duress.

kulahan 10mo ago
You don’t think NZ and Aus are truly good friends?
subw00f 10mo ago
Yeah, all those countries China has invaded really shows how apt they are to do that.
- energy123 10mo ago
  Please spare us. China invaded Vietnam to protect Pol Pot while he was mass killing millions of innocent civilians. They have territorial disputes with over 10 countries, which they've been unable to decisively act on because those neighbors either have nukes (India) or are protected by a more powerful country (US). Not because their government is some benevolent entity. They're basically an authoritarian dictatorship that's kind of cornered at the moment (like Saddam after the Gulf War) but would kill a bunch of people and expand if the US wasn't around.
  - spaceman_2020 10mo ago
    China has resolved a lot of its border disputes already. The border disputes with Kazakhstan, Krgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nepal, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam, Tajikstan have all been resolved

energy123 10mo ago

> I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ). Isn't that "other than" clause a big deal, though? I've read a survey and a number of articles from defense and foreign policy types, and the general feeling is there's a ~25% chance that China will invade Taiwan this decade. That's really damn big. If there's rollback in Taiwan then the first island chain could plausibly fall, or if not you will surely see Japan and maybe South Korea nuclearize. Why must we keep assuming the best with these security calculations instead of believing someone when they keep saying what they're going to do?

jjcc 10mo ago

Give you some more historical context: China (ROC) planned to invade west China until the plan was given up in 60's. Both sides wanted reunification by force. When China's navy and air force was superior in early 1950's, it tried to "establish blockade of trade with west China (PRC) along the Chinese coast" (1) China eventually gave up the plan in 1960's not because it didn't want to but because the balance of the power weighting over to west China. In 80's and 90's both agree to make peace given the premise that both sides belong to China. TSMC was a product of industry policy from None-democratic China government. The founder Morris Chang ， an American born in the west China ，never visited China before 50 years old. Both China (before 90') and west China used to want reunification , by force or not. China changed a bit later. The motivation of west China to invade China has little to do with chips although US thought that's the critical incentive. West China will still let TSMC provide the chips to the world in case it would have successfully invaded China in my view. 1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Tuapse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Tuapse

notepad0x90 10mo ago
Thanks. In my view, the PRC is making a huge strategic mistake. As is Taiwan. The PRC is too focused on full control, normally they're more long-term-minded, but in this case they're rushing it too much. Establishing a trade-bloc and peaceful relations first and then aiming for full reunification would be the smart play, since there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion. Taiwan is too dependent on the west, it too should know it can't actually resist an invasion, and that the west won't do much when it comes down to it. Its interests would have been served best if it sought good trade relations with the PRC, so that the PRC will continue to rely on TSMC. it should be providing west-china with all the nice chips the west is forbidding it from having. It should have been more like india and less like south korea.
- zonghao 10mo ago
  > there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion. The reunification of Taiwan is a fundamental national policy, enshrined in the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. The primary intention behind the desire for national reunification stems from the realization of reunification itself, rather than from other interests. This reflects a complex national sentiment and shared aspiration. We consider the people of Taiwan to be our compatriots. Therefore, even though our military strength far surpasses that of Taiwan, the mainland is unwilling to resort to force and has always hoped for peaceful reunification. This is because we do not wish to harm or even kill any of our compatriots in the process of achieving it. Essentially, it has been the United States that has been obstructing this unification process and using propaganda tools to influence public perception in Taiwan. As a result, many Taiwanese people are shocked by the stark difference between the mainland and the propaganda portrays them when they visit. It is truly baffling that, despite living so close to the mainland, their understanding of it is almost in sync with that of Americans.