3 ms·

He gets political.. Just as an example, he claimed that it was obvious that COVID was a lab leak in 2021. This is not obvious at all if you read Michael Worobey

He gets political.. Just as an example, he claimed that it was obvious that COVID was a lab leak in 2021. This is not obvious at all if you read Michael Worobey's rigorous work instead of rely on Blow's arrogant intuitions. I will still play Jonathan Blow's next game, but I think he is a bit of a hack outside of game design.

bitexploder 10mo ago
Most of us are grossly unqualified to provide opinions on any domain save some hyper specialized domain we invest years of effort into. I always think about that when reading comments on the Internet :)
- biophysboy 10mo ago
  absolutely agree on this. Expertise is essential because it means familiarity w/ the domain methodology, not because you have a certificate
- thrance 10mo ago
  If only the tech gurus of the internet stayed in their lanes, or if people knew better than to take their beliefs from clueless entrepreneurs who got lucky once, the world would be a much better place. Alas, tis not the one we live in.
  - bitexploder 10mo ago
    A lot of skills in say, running a business, really do transfer. It is possible to gain expertise on how to run a small business and translate that to other realms of running a business. But it is also important, perhaps critical, to recognize limitations. The less similar the situation and environment the less that will transfer. Some times enough transfers that the insights are useful. Some times it is actively harmful to apply previous approaches. Recognizing the differences and what transfers is much harder but also a skill. Becoming skilled enough to help up until your limitations is how you can continuously be successful in domains you have no right to be. The irony is even then you may still not really be able to offer helpful insight.
dismalaf 10mo ago
The lab leak theory was always credible. Here in Canada there was a big scandal with Chinese scientists who worked for one of our labs who secretly transferred specimens from Winnipeg to Wuhan in 2019 and the subsequent police investigation went public in 2020. Here's a good article that's basically a summary of events (as well as teaser for a book): https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/from-our-lab-to-theirs-where-covid-may-have-begun-excerpt-from-a-new-book/article_36d88df5-995a-45bb-baab-a551e0a8528f.html https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/from-our-lab-to-theirs-...
- biophysboy 10mo ago
  (Apologies to the thread..) Its not credible: two viral lineages emerged from the market ~1 week apart before the world knew what covid was; they differ by 2 nucleotides; mutation rates are 1e-6 per base per passage; doubling time is about half a week. A group of sick animals better explains the phylogenetics w/ these constraints. Everything points against lab leak: location, timing, and genetics.
  - dismalaf 10mo ago
    You should google the definition of credible since it seems you don't know it... (Hint, it doesn't mean 100% true) It really boils down to: do you trust a brutal communist dictatorship that has been attacking the West asymmetrically and wants to invade its neighbours to be honest? Multiple Western governments believe it was a lab leak and coincidentally I'm sure, relations with China have been quite bad since.
    - biophysboy 10mo ago
      My evidence is genetic material; your evidence is state intelligence
      - dismalaf 10mo ago
        Your evidence is a Chinese claim of genetic material. They've certainly never covered anything up before...

bitexploder 10mo ago

Most of us are grossly unqualified to provide opinions on any domain save some hyper specialized domain we invest years of effort into. I always think about that when reading comments on the Internet :)

biophysboy 10mo ago
absolutely agree on this. Expertise is essential because it means familiarity w/ the domain methodology, not because you have a certificate
thrance 10mo ago
If only the tech gurus of the internet stayed in their lanes, or if people knew better than to take their beliefs from clueless entrepreneurs who got lucky once, the world would be a much better place. Alas, tis not the one we live in.
- bitexploder 10mo ago
  A lot of skills in say, running a business, really do transfer. It is possible to gain expertise on how to run a small business and translate that to other realms of running a business. But it is also important, perhaps critical, to recognize limitations. The less similar the situation and environment the less that will transfer. Some times enough transfers that the insights are useful. Some times it is actively harmful to apply previous approaches. Recognizing the differences and what transfers is much harder but also a skill. Becoming skilled enough to help up until your limitations is how you can continuously be successful in domains you have no right to be. The irony is even then you may still not really be able to offer helpful insight.

dismalaf 10mo ago

The lab leak theory was always credible. Here in Canada there was a big scandal with Chinese scientists who worked for one of our labs who secretly transferred specimens from Winnipeg to Wuhan in 2019 and the subsequent police investigation went public in 2020. Here's a good article that's basically a summary of events (as well as teaser for a book): https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/from-our-lab-to-theirs-where-covid-may-have-begun-excerpt-from-a-new-book/article_36d88df5-995a-45bb-baab-a551e0a8528f.html https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/from-our-lab-to-theirs-...

biophysboy 10mo ago
(Apologies to the thread..) Its not credible: two viral lineages emerged from the market ~1 week apart before the world knew what covid was; they differ by 2 nucleotides; mutation rates are 1e-6 per base per passage; doubling time is about half a week. A group of sick animals better explains the phylogenetics w/ these constraints. Everything points against lab leak: location, timing, and genetics.
- dismalaf 10mo ago
  You should google the definition of credible since it seems you don't know it... (Hint, it doesn't mean 100% true) It really boils down to: do you trust a brutal communist dictatorship that has been attacking the West asymmetrically and wants to invade its neighbours to be honest? Multiple Western governments believe it was a lab leak and coincidentally I'm sure, relations with China have been quite bad since.
  - biophysboy 10mo ago
    My evidence is genetic material; your evidence is state intelligence
    - dismalaf 10mo ago
      Your evidence is a Chinese claim of genetic material. They've certainly never covered anything up before...