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Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

60 points by tareqak 10mo ago

givemeethekeys 10mo ago
Gamers be damned, they are going to keep those prices high.
- lazylizard 10mo ago
  before (what? when? covid?) nvidia annual revenues were circa us$10b and amd was competing with it to make GPUs. after (what? when? covid?)..or now.. nvidia is a accelerator manufacturer with a small legacy GPU business and revenues are closer to us$200b. and amd is still no closer to competing with nvidia at making GPUs. intel started something in the mean time though. but everyone seems to be expecting them to try compete with nvidia at making accelerators. nobody is interested in GPUs anymore. accelerators seem to be the much bigger and more interesting market.
- rangestransform 10mo ago
  Gamers should be glad they have google and openai funding the development of their GPUs
  - givemeethekeys 9mo ago
    They aren't. Graphics cards aren't as efficient as making a card dedicated for training models. You won't be able to take cards from a datacenter and put it in your PC for gaming.
TheAmazingRace 10mo ago
I do feel there might be a day of reckoning where Nvidia bet the farm too hard on this AI bubble and it ends up blowing up in their face. I hope gamers, systems integrators, and regular PC enthusiasts don't have memories of goldfish and go back to business as usual. It needs to hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook. Will this happen? Unlikely, but hope springs eternal.
- hn_throwaway_99 10mo ago
  I don't get this. Nvidia didn't "bet the farm" on AI. They are simply allocating limited resources (in this case memory) to their most profitable products. Yes, it sucks for gamers, but I see Nvidia more reacting to the current marketplace than driving that change. If/when the AI bubble bursts, Nvidia will just readjust their resource allocation accordingly.
  - TheAmazingRace 10mo ago
    I certainly have no delusions of Nvidia going bankrupt. In fact, they will certainly make it to the other side without much issue. That said, I do foresee Nvidia taking a reputational hit, with AMD and (possibly) Intel gaining more mindshare among consumers.
  - kowbell 10mo ago
    I also don't understand common sentiment that if/when the AI bubble pops and hardware manufacturers come crawling back, we consumers are going to make manufacturers regret their decision. Isn't the whole problem that all the manufacturers are pivoting away from consumers and toward AI? How are we going to "hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook?" Buy from their competitors? But they are also making these pivots/"turning their backs on us." Just abstain from buying hardware out of protest? As soon as prices go down there's gonna be a buying frenzy from everyone who's been waiting this whole time.
    - ssl-3 10mo ago
      If/when the bubble pops, manufacturers will find that they can't butter their bread like they could when the datacenter craze was booming. In a world that is paved by growth, companies aren't very good at shrinking. It doesn't matter what consumers do or don't do -- we plebians are a tiny portion of their present market. We can buy the same GPUs from the same folks as before, or we can do something different, and it won't matter. Whatever we do will be a rounding error in the jagged, gaping, infected hole where the AI market once was.
Ekaros 10mo ago
I am starting to find it funny. Even if it is sad... Well thankfully Finnish has term for this surkuhupaisa...
DivingForGold 10mo ago
Nag screen https://archive.ph/dJt9D https://archive.ph/dJt9D
xacky 10mo ago
Nvidia is chasing trends again, they did it for crypto mining, and I bet some new fad will come up soon. It looks like the gaming industry needs to move to something else than the current GPU ecosystem in the long term. Intel Arc and Moore Threads have tried, but we really need a new way of designing and rendering graphics.
- nullocator 10mo ago
  Or nvidia could be broken up and different companies could focus on consumer and enterprise divisions.
  - HWR_14 10mo ago
    I'm sure half their employees will love being removed from the AI profit train.
tracker1 10mo ago
I think it's maybe time for game developers to spend more effort/time on gameplay and a bit less on AAA+++ graphics that only top GPUs can handle. Maybe hard targeting iGPU/APU for mid-level support in games. For that matter, plenty of room to remake/reskin older (fun) games... Bring the Black Mesa effect to lots of existing games.
- cedws 10mo ago
  Games now don’t even look good enough to justify the enormous computing power they require. They’re a stuttery and blurry mess, augmented by fake AI frames, LOD popping, weird screen space rendering defects, and so on. Graphics peaked 10 years ago.
- nirav72 10mo ago
  After I read this article, I realized that I have a huge backlog of unplayed/partially played games in my steam library. Significant chunk of those games are from Indie devs. Probably enough games to last me a year or two. Plus, most of them seem like they will run just fine at max to high settings using my 3080 Ti on a 1440p display. Point is, I really need to stop looking for the next hardware refresh so I can keep playing newer big budget titles. This and current memory prices made it easy for me to forget about upgrading for the next 2-3 years.
  - tracker1 9mo ago
    Fair enough on that... I had just upgraded earlier in the year, so I'm set for the next 3-5 years at least, that said, I'll probably defer my usual mid-cycle gpu upgrade and hold onto my 9070xt for a while as well, I don't see GPU/Ram prices going back to normal for another 3+ years given how many data center rollouts are planned and mostly paid for in that timeframe. My bigger concern is actually going to be electricity costs in the face of those data center rollouts. Not to mention actual AI fears since I've started playing with the latest Anthropic models (Claude Code), it's impressive and the field is still evolving rapidly. The job market is going to get worse IMO.
devwastaken 10mo ago
AMD will eat their lunch, and are. If AMD can properly replace CUDA, rtx hdr, they could win the market.

60 points by tareqak 10mo ago

givemeethekeys 10mo ago

Gamers be damned, they are going to keep those prices high.

lazylizard 10mo ago
before (what? when? covid?) nvidia annual revenues were circa us$10b and amd was competing with it to make GPUs. after (what? when? covid?)..or now.. nvidia is a accelerator manufacturer with a small legacy GPU business and revenues are closer to us$200b. and amd is still no closer to competing with nvidia at making GPUs. intel started something in the mean time though. but everyone seems to be expecting them to try compete with nvidia at making accelerators. nobody is interested in GPUs anymore. accelerators seem to be the much bigger and more interesting market.
rangestransform 10mo ago
Gamers should be glad they have google and openai funding the development of their GPUs
- givemeethekeys 9mo ago
  They aren't. Graphics cards aren't as efficient as making a card dedicated for training models. You won't be able to take cards from a datacenter and put it in your PC for gaming.

TheAmazingRace 10mo ago

I do feel there might be a day of reckoning where Nvidia bet the farm too hard on this AI bubble and it ends up blowing up in their face. I hope gamers, systems integrators, and regular PC enthusiasts don't have memories of goldfish and go back to business as usual. It needs to hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook. Will this happen? Unlikely, but hope springs eternal.

hn_throwaway_99 10mo ago
I don't get this. Nvidia didn't "bet the farm" on AI. They are simply allocating limited resources (in this case memory) to their most profitable products. Yes, it sucks for gamers, but I see Nvidia more reacting to the current marketplace than driving that change. If/when the AI bubble bursts, Nvidia will just readjust their resource allocation accordingly.
- TheAmazingRace 10mo ago
  I certainly have no delusions of Nvidia going bankrupt. In fact, they will certainly make it to the other side without much issue. That said, I do foresee Nvidia taking a reputational hit, with AMD and (possibly) Intel gaining more mindshare among consumers.
- kowbell 10mo ago
  I also don't understand common sentiment that if/when the AI bubble pops and hardware manufacturers come crawling back, we consumers are going to make manufacturers regret their decision. Isn't the whole problem that all the manufacturers are pivoting away from consumers and toward AI? How are we going to "hurt Nvidia in the pocketbook?" Buy from their competitors? But they are also making these pivots/"turning their backs on us." Just abstain from buying hardware out of protest? As soon as prices go down there's gonna be a buying frenzy from everyone who's been waiting this whole time.
  - ssl-3 10mo ago
    If/when the bubble pops, manufacturers will find that they can't butter their bread like they could when the datacenter craze was booming. In a world that is paved by growth, companies aren't very good at shrinking. It doesn't matter what consumers do or don't do -- we plebians are a tiny portion of their present market. We can buy the same GPUs from the same folks as before, or we can do something different, and it won't matter. Whatever we do will be a rounding error in the jagged, gaping, infected hole where the AI market once was.

Ekaros 10mo ago

I am starting to find it funny. Even if it is sad... Well thankfully Finnish has term for this surkuhupaisa...

DivingForGold 10mo ago

Nag screen https://archive.ph/dJt9D https://archive.ph/dJt9D

xacky 10mo ago

Nvidia is chasing trends again, they did it for crypto mining, and I bet some new fad will come up soon. It looks like the gaming industry needs to move to something else than the current GPU ecosystem in the long term. Intel Arc and Moore Threads have tried, but we really need a new way of designing and rendering graphics.

nullocator 10mo ago
Or nvidia could be broken up and different companies could focus on consumer and enterprise divisions.
- HWR_14 10mo ago
  I'm sure half their employees will love being removed from the AI profit train.

tracker1 10mo ago

I think it's maybe time for game developers to spend more effort/time on gameplay and a bit less on AAA+++ graphics that only top GPUs can handle. Maybe hard targeting iGPU/APU for mid-level support in games. For that matter, plenty of room to remake/reskin older (fun) games... Bring the Black Mesa effect to lots of existing games.

cedws 10mo ago
Games now don’t even look good enough to justify the enormous computing power they require. They’re a stuttery and blurry mess, augmented by fake AI frames, LOD popping, weird screen space rendering defects, and so on. Graphics peaked 10 years ago.
nirav72 10mo ago
After I read this article, I realized that I have a huge backlog of unplayed/partially played games in my steam library. Significant chunk of those games are from Indie devs. Probably enough games to last me a year or two. Plus, most of them seem like they will run just fine at max to high settings using my 3080 Ti on a 1440p display. Point is, I really need to stop looking for the next hardware refresh so I can keep playing newer big budget titles. This and current memory prices made it easy for me to forget about upgrading for the next 2-3 years.
- tracker1 9mo ago
  Fair enough on that... I had just upgraded earlier in the year, so I'm set for the next 3-5 years at least, that said, I'll probably defer my usual mid-cycle gpu upgrade and hold onto my 9070xt for a while as well, I don't see GPU/Ram prices going back to normal for another 3+ years given how many data center rollouts are planned and mostly paid for in that timeframe. My bigger concern is actually going to be electricity costs in the face of those data center rollouts. Not to mention actual AI fears since I've started playing with the latest Anthropic models (Claude Code), it's impressive and the field is still evolving rapidly. The job market is going to get worse IMO.

devwastaken 10mo ago

AMD will eat their lunch, and are. If AMD can properly replace CUDA, rtx hdr, they could win the market.