3 ms·

Yes in 2019, look what's happening to TW politics now, green fatigue, DPP anti PRC rhetoric secured a couple elections but now the island new gen is increasingl

by maxglute 10mo ago

Yes in 2019, look what's happening to TW politics now, green fatigue, DPP anti PRC rhetoric secured a couple elections but now the island new gen is increasingly jaded and post political because they realize the DPP Anti PRC card isn't improving their QoL. VS a few years post getting crushed, HKers also post political who realized they can simply live much better lives by embracing mainland (SZ) and not be such nativist/supremecist. Reality is democratic and shitlib politics is structurally failling everywhere, if the authoritarian gives you a priveledged deal, many TWer might eventually take it. Just look at HK reaction to recent fire, HKers lamenting how much more SZ and mainland tier1s have their shit together. The vibe is changing. PRC needs carrot and stick for TW, like how it's always been. Let's be real, in a post TW crisis there will be winners and losers, TWers need to see how winners are treated (tier1 affordtable life style) and how losers are treated (Gaza). Nevermind DPP just banned XHS because they realize they're losing culture war to mainland.

dh2022 10mo ago
The bubble is strong with this one...
- maxglute 10mo ago
  [flagged]
  - consumer451 10mo ago
    This comment broke my brain. I have no idea what you are trying to say. It could be sarcasm, but that concept is now obsolete, so I have no idea. Care to explain?
    - maxglute 10mo ago
      When look past liberal world order propaganda, aka the libtard bubble, a lot of geopolitical reality seem to bias toward PRC, not because PRC is extra prescient or competent (even though they kind of are) but because libtard delude themselves into false models of how world works. Pertaining to topic, current reality is HK isn't going to be rebellious stain on 1C2S like LIO types wanted, it's thoroughly cowed and new gen of HKers are going to be patriotic as fuck. For the simple reason that patriotic education / indoctorination actually works really well as statecraft tool. TW democratic disallusionment is growing YoY, and eventually they're going to have to reckon between being privledged cowed like HKers or becoming Gaza - it wasn't Israel begging for ceasefire and Israel has less autonomy over Gaza than PRC over TW in a cross strait scenario.
      - consumer451 10mo ago
        Wow. That's a lot of modern keywords you have there. Now I am curious about your brain/point of view. 1. When you say "libtards," do you mean non-authoritarian democracy believers? If not, then what does that mean exactly? 2. How do you see Taiwan's sovereignty in the next few years? Will the CCP kill many, and put the rest into re-education camps, or will that be entirely unnecessary?
        maxglute 10mo ago
        Liberal world order / zombie democracy gud types. My brain / pov is just boring realism and recognizing a lot of strategic trendlines is going in PRC favor. TW fine until mid 2030s, tldr is that is around crossing point where current baked in procurement / strategic investments will give PRC potentially unassailable geostrategic advantages vs US+co. If shit hits fan it will likely be around then. CCP / at least Xi will be magnanmous because he's just a dove / nice boy. But war is war, no one really controls escalation, gaza is not first choice (especially for softie like Xi) but when ability to do a TW gaza, it is on the table and sometimes inevitable result from escalation dynamics. How postwar TW gets treated depends on nature of capitulation, i.e. hearts and minds vs pacfication, if PRC paid high price in blood then domestic audience will want blood. But most of effort is patriotic education, i.e. school curriculum pro PRC material and next gen sentiment will automatically shift. Mass reeducation wasn't neccessary in HK who was broken relatively bloodlessly, and now new gen of kids shaped from PRC textbooks are going to have different brains than those shaped by British whose position is going to continue getting clowned on in public messaging until it becomes new norm. But would the extra intransient elements be whisked to mainland for re3ducation, probably - explicitly endorsed by PRC french ambassador at one point. Ultimately how TW seperatist gets treated is matter of petty PRC bloodlust and local TW bloodlust. As with political jockeying during upheaval, anticipate a lot of pro seperatist TWers simply getting bumped off by local internicine factional violence for getting TW into shitfest in first place. The amount of organized crime influence in TW is too damn high, and all of them know they can instantly transform from gangster to legitimate political power post occupation by getting on Beijings good side, and some are actively being groomed for the role via United Front, see triad leading Chinese Unification Promotion Party (CUPP). They're going to be bashing skulls on behalf of Beijing.

dh2022 10mo ago

The bubble is strong with this one...

maxglute 10mo ago
[flagged]
- consumer451 10mo ago
  This comment broke my brain. I have no idea what you are trying to say. It could be sarcasm, but that concept is now obsolete, so I have no idea. Care to explain?
  - maxglute 10mo ago
    When look past liberal world order propaganda, aka the libtard bubble, a lot of geopolitical reality seem to bias toward PRC, not because PRC is extra prescient or competent (even though they kind of are) but because libtard delude themselves into false models of how world works. Pertaining to topic, current reality is HK isn't going to be rebellious stain on 1C2S like LIO types wanted, it's thoroughly cowed and new gen of HKers are going to be patriotic as fuck. For the simple reason that patriotic education / indoctorination actually works really well as statecraft tool. TW democratic disallusionment is growing YoY, and eventually they're going to have to reckon between being privledged cowed like HKers or becoming Gaza - it wasn't Israel begging for ceasefire and Israel has less autonomy over Gaza than PRC over TW in a cross strait scenario.
    - consumer451 10mo ago
      Wow. That's a lot of modern keywords you have there. Now I am curious about your brain/point of view. 1. When you say "libtards," do you mean non-authoritarian democracy believers? If not, then what does that mean exactly? 2. How do you see Taiwan's sovereignty in the next few years? Will the CCP kill many, and put the rest into re-education camps, or will that be entirely unnecessary?
      - maxglute 10mo ago
        Liberal world order / zombie democracy gud types. My brain / pov is just boring realism and recognizing a lot of strategic trendlines is going in PRC favor. TW fine until mid 2030s, tldr is that is around crossing point where current baked in procurement / strategic investments will give PRC potentially unassailable geostrategic advantages vs US+co. If shit hits fan it will likely be around then. CCP / at least Xi will be magnanmous because he's just a dove / nice boy. But war is war, no one really controls escalation, gaza is not first choice (especially for softie like Xi) but when ability to do a TW gaza, it is on the table and sometimes inevitable result from escalation dynamics. How postwar TW gets treated depends on nature of capitulation, i.e. hearts and minds vs pacfication, if PRC paid high price in blood then domestic audience will want blood. But most of effort is patriotic education, i.e. school curriculum pro PRC material and next gen sentiment will automatically shift. Mass reeducation wasn't neccessary in HK who was broken relatively bloodlessly, and now new gen of kids shaped from PRC textbooks are going to have different brains than those shaped by British whose position is going to continue getting clowned on in public messaging until it becomes new norm. But would the extra intransient elements be whisked to mainland for re3ducation, probably - explicitly endorsed by PRC french ambassador at one point. Ultimately how TW seperatist gets treated is matter of petty PRC bloodlust and local TW bloodlust. As with political jockeying during upheaval, anticipate a lot of pro seperatist TWers simply getting bumped off by local internicine factional violence for getting TW into shitfest in first place. The amount of organized crime influence in TW is too damn high, and all of them know they can instantly transform from gangster to legitimate political power post occupation by getting on Beijings good side, and some are actively being groomed for the role via United Front, see triad leading Chinese Unification Promotion Party (CUPP). They're going to be bashing skulls on behalf of Beijing.