6 ms·

Naw, now Taiwan will have a few years to realize being 1C2S is no big deal, kids in HK are going to mainland to party, next gen is going to be even more integra

by maxglute 10mo ago

Naw, now Taiwan will have a few years to realize being 1C2S is no big deal, kids in HK are going to mainland to party, next gen is going to be even more integrated thanks to patriotic education. In 5-10 years you'll have patriotic HKers lol at TWers being brained for for prefering Gaza solution over HK solution. Which realisitically is really what the offer is now.

dh2022 10mo ago
I am still waiting for the widely advertised and announced China attack on Taiwan. And I do not think Taiwan will become Gaza if China eventually attacks - unlike Israel, China has quite a lot of enemies in the West.
- maxglute 10mo ago
  PRC never advertised a timeline outside of implying national rejuvenation (which can't happen without reincorporating TW) by PLA centennial by 2049. If you depend on western propaganda like Davidson Window 2027 then you can keep thumb twiddling. What's likely going to happen is some inciting event or some engineered out of blue casus belli. PRC doesn't have any capable enemies in the west, including US, that can prevent PRC from turning TW into a Gaza. Which PRC can do with purely mainland based fires at this point. The force balance is too lopsided off PRC shores now. PRC's fleet of PL191 can basically level all of Taiwan urban areas in a few months, weeks considering other munition stockpiles. They can build a few hundred more chasis and frankyl TW->Gaza would take a couple weeks. Otherwise every inch of TW is within a few minute strikes from mainland, so resupply is out of question. There's nothing preventing TW from becoming Gaza except Xi is kind of nice bro.
  - dh2022 10mo ago
    "Xi is kind of nice bro." - hopefully you are sarcastic. Xi is definitely not a nice bro. To your narrow point of view focused on military destruction - there are other ways the West will counter a Chinese attack on Taiwan. If China does attack Taiwan, China will be the second biggest loser.
    - maxglute 10mo ago
      He's nice enough all things considered, nelson mandella kind of person in LKW words. It is statistically remarkable how dovish he has been given size of PRC military now, all historic hegemons even local were up to more violence by this stage of rise. There really aren't anything substantial, nothing the west can sustain anymore let alone in 5/10 years or 2049. It may very well be PRC is poised to be the least biggest loser, aka relative winner. IMO we're in stage where the longer PRC waits and accumulates the harder they win and frankly there's shit all west is able to do about it (on procurement side over next 10-20 years) with gap extending in PRC favor.
- random9749832 10mo ago
  A lot of those "enemies" can't protect Ukraine which they are much more geographically positioned to defend. Plus a lot of morals go out of the window when there is a real threat and a lot on the line. Even between the new tensions with China and Japan, the US appears to be quiet: https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3189 https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3...
  - ImJamal 10mo ago
    Ukraine could easily be protect if there was a will to do so in the West. Very few people want to go die fighting for a country they can't even point to on a map so the the most effective solution to defending Ukraine is off the table.
    - random9749832 10mo ago
      Not sure about "easily" but I believe the idea at this point is to not escalate, drag out the war and win on economic grounds. Of course dragging things out also comes at a huge price for Ukraine but the EU/US seem to have accepted that as the price to be paid despite the moral posturing. This is definitely not the sort of "protection" I would rely on.
      - dh2022 10mo ago
        On the flip side though see how badly things are working out for Russia. I think EU will not do business with Russia for a generation. Russia is really fucked. PRC sees the writing on the wall and, being the pragmatic bunch that they are, will probably not invade Taiwan. Unless Xi really controls the country 100% (this I do not know since I am not a Chinese observer) and goes crazy like Putin did.
      - ImJamal 10mo ago
        I agree that it is just dragging on and that is what I meant by describing the alternative as easy. Sending money and weapons is just leading to more death and destruction and no victory for Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine can win with the way things are going unless the West joins the fighting or Russia collapses. Waiting until Russia collapses will quite possibly be a long time which will result in a Pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. They will have an entire generation of dead men at the rate things are going.
maxloh 10mo ago
The Taiwanese support for pro-independence actually skyrocketed in 2019. I don't think anything bad happening to Hong Kong activists would be a good look for China. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202506.png https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202506.png
- maxglute 10mo ago
  Yes in 2019, look what's happening to TW politics now, green fatigue, DPP anti PRC rhetoric secured a couple elections but now the island new gen is increasingly jaded and post political because they realize the DPP Anti PRC card isn't improving their QoL. VS a few years post getting crushed, HKers also post political who realized they can simply live much better lives by embracing mainland (SZ) and not be such nativist/supremecist. Reality is democratic and shitlib politics is structurally failling everywhere, if the authoritarian gives you a priveledged deal, many TWer might eventually take it. Just look at HK reaction to recent fire, HKers lamenting how much more SZ and mainland tier1s have their shit together. The vibe is changing. PRC needs carrot and stick for TW, like how it's always been. Let's be real, in a post TW crisis there will be winners and losers, TWers need to see how winners are treated (tier1 affordtable life style) and how losers are treated (Gaza). Nevermind DPP just banned XHS because they realize they're losing culture war to mainland.
  - dh2022 10mo ago
    The bubble is strong with this one...
    - maxglute 10mo ago
      [flagged]
      - consumer451 10mo ago
        This comment broke my brain. I have no idea what you are trying to say. It could be sarcasm, but that concept is now obsolete, so I have no idea. Care to explain?
random9749832 10mo ago
I personally would like to see East Asia more unified and less reliant on an increasingly unstable country like the US. They will collectively have to rely on foreigners more in the future anyway due to low birth rates as Japan already does. A lot of people serving food were Chinese when I went there. About 50% of the tourists were also Chinese.
- maxglute 10mo ago
  I think the sentiment is nice but historic greviences still strong. Utlimately the problem isn't more or less reliance on US security hedging but force balance being so lopsidded in PRC that US don't matter. Reminder TW use to have the largest airforce in East Asia. At somepoint (that we're probably well past), US not capable of east asia security gurantee. And whatever you think about recent PRC/JP tussle, and ignore takaichi picking fights with RU over sakahlin and SKR over dokodo within last few weeks, JP having maritime/territorial disputes with all her neighbours despite beign loser of WW2, where her borders should be prescribed by treaty, is going to lead to messy situations.
- beautiful_zhixu 10mo ago
  I would not like to see East Asia more unified. The current boundaries are fine and the US treats Japan quite well while China/Korea are not ready to tone down resentment yet. Full unification is similar to the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere (大東亜共栄圏). The foundation would probably be some ideology centered around the area’s 3000+ years of shared Buddhism and Confucianism, rewarding wealthy multi-lingual business families more than the average person. Something more realistic and beneficial to you (assuming you are Asian in an English-speaking country) would be world unification .

dh2022 10mo ago

I am still waiting for the widely advertised and announced China attack on Taiwan. And I do not think Taiwan will become Gaza if China eventually attacks - unlike Israel, China has quite a lot of enemies in the West.

maxglute 10mo ago
PRC never advertised a timeline outside of implying national rejuvenation (which can't happen without reincorporating TW) by PLA centennial by 2049. If you depend on western propaganda like Davidson Window 2027 then you can keep thumb twiddling. What's likely going to happen is some inciting event or some engineered out of blue casus belli. PRC doesn't have any capable enemies in the west, including US, that can prevent PRC from turning TW into a Gaza. Which PRC can do with purely mainland based fires at this point. The force balance is too lopsided off PRC shores now. PRC's fleet of PL191 can basically level all of Taiwan urban areas in a few months, weeks considering other munition stockpiles. They can build a few hundred more chasis and frankyl TW->Gaza would take a couple weeks. Otherwise every inch of TW is within a few minute strikes from mainland, so resupply is out of question. There's nothing preventing TW from becoming Gaza except Xi is kind of nice bro.
- dh2022 10mo ago
  "Xi is kind of nice bro." - hopefully you are sarcastic. Xi is definitely not a nice bro. To your narrow point of view focused on military destruction - there are other ways the West will counter a Chinese attack on Taiwan. If China does attack Taiwan, China will be the second biggest loser.
  - maxglute 10mo ago
    He's nice enough all things considered, nelson mandella kind of person in LKW words. It is statistically remarkable how dovish he has been given size of PRC military now, all historic hegemons even local were up to more violence by this stage of rise. There really aren't anything substantial, nothing the west can sustain anymore let alone in 5/10 years or 2049. It may very well be PRC is poised to be the least biggest loser, aka relative winner. IMO we're in stage where the longer PRC waits and accumulates the harder they win and frankly there's shit all west is able to do about it (on procurement side over next 10-20 years) with gap extending in PRC favor.
random9749832 10mo ago
A lot of those "enemies" can't protect Ukraine which they are much more geographically positioned to defend. Plus a lot of morals go out of the window when there is a real threat and a lot on the line. Even between the new tensions with China and Japan, the US appears to be quiet: https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3189 https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3...
- ImJamal 10mo ago
  Ukraine could easily be protect if there was a will to do so in the West. Very few people want to go die fighting for a country they can't even point to on a map so the the most effective solution to defending Ukraine is off the table.
  - random9749832 10mo ago
    Not sure about "easily" but I believe the idea at this point is to not escalate, drag out the war and win on economic grounds. Of course dragging things out also comes at a huge price for Ukraine but the EU/US seem to have accepted that as the price to be paid despite the moral posturing. This is definitely not the sort of "protection" I would rely on.
    - dh2022 10mo ago
      On the flip side though see how badly things are working out for Russia. I think EU will not do business with Russia for a generation. Russia is really fucked. PRC sees the writing on the wall and, being the pragmatic bunch that they are, will probably not invade Taiwan. Unless Xi really controls the country 100% (this I do not know since I am not a Chinese observer) and goes crazy like Putin did.
    - ImJamal 10mo ago
      I agree that it is just dragging on and that is what I meant by describing the alternative as easy. Sending money and weapons is just leading to more death and destruction and no victory for Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine can win with the way things are going unless the West joins the fighting or Russia collapses. Waiting until Russia collapses will quite possibly be a long time which will result in a Pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. They will have an entire generation of dead men at the rate things are going.

maxloh 10mo ago

The Taiwanese support for pro-independence actually skyrocketed in 2019. I don't think anything bad happening to Hong Kong activists would be a good look for China. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202506.png https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202506.png

maxglute 10mo ago
Yes in 2019, look what's happening to TW politics now, green fatigue, DPP anti PRC rhetoric secured a couple elections but now the island new gen is increasingly jaded and post political because they realize the DPP Anti PRC card isn't improving their QoL. VS a few years post getting crushed, HKers also post political who realized they can simply live much better lives by embracing mainland (SZ) and not be such nativist/supremecist. Reality is democratic and shitlib politics is structurally failling everywhere, if the authoritarian gives you a priveledged deal, many TWer might eventually take it. Just look at HK reaction to recent fire, HKers lamenting how much more SZ and mainland tier1s have their shit together. The vibe is changing. PRC needs carrot and stick for TW, like how it's always been. Let's be real, in a post TW crisis there will be winners and losers, TWers need to see how winners are treated (tier1 affordtable life style) and how losers are treated (Gaza). Nevermind DPP just banned XHS because they realize they're losing culture war to mainland.
- dh2022 10mo ago
  The bubble is strong with this one...
  - maxglute 10mo ago
    [flagged]
    - consumer451 10mo ago
      This comment broke my brain. I have no idea what you are trying to say. It could be sarcasm, but that concept is now obsolete, so I have no idea. Care to explain?

random9749832 10mo ago

I personally would like to see East Asia more unified and less reliant on an increasingly unstable country like the US. They will collectively have to rely on foreigners more in the future anyway due to low birth rates as Japan already does. A lot of people serving food were Chinese when I went there. About 50% of the tourists were also Chinese.

maxglute 10mo ago
I think the sentiment is nice but historic greviences still strong. Utlimately the problem isn't more or less reliance on US security hedging but force balance being so lopsidded in PRC that US don't matter. Reminder TW use to have the largest airforce in East Asia. At somepoint (that we're probably well past), US not capable of east asia security gurantee. And whatever you think about recent PRC/JP tussle, and ignore takaichi picking fights with RU over sakahlin and SKR over dokodo within last few weeks, JP having maritime/territorial disputes with all her neighbours despite beign loser of WW2, where her borders should be prescribed by treaty, is going to lead to messy situations.
beautiful_zhixu 10mo ago
I would not like to see East Asia more unified. The current boundaries are fine and the US treats Japan quite well while China/Korea are not ready to tone down resentment yet. Full unification is similar to the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere (大東亜共栄圏). The foundation would probably be some ideology centered around the area’s 3000+ years of shared Buddhism and Confucianism, rewarding wealthy multi-lingual business families more than the average person. Something more realistic and beneficial to you (assuming you are Asian in an English-speaking country) would be world unification .