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But isn't that in the past? Look at stocks: everything is synchronizing, for years now. Either something like 85% of stocks all go up, with a predictable diffe
by spwa4 11mo ago
But isn't that in the past?
Look at stocks: everything is synchronizing, for years now. Either something like 85% of stocks all go up, with a predictable difference between them (meaning, e.g. META moves about double GOOG does, whichever way it goes, up or down), or 85% of stocks all go down. SPY, VOO. And in fact the only ones that make a move to speak of are the MAG7. It isn't just that they're the fastest to rise, they're the only ones that beat the market.
Zoom out and you'll see that in recent years you can include even non-stock-market assets in this argument. Housing ... same (of course there I understand), Gold, surprisingly, same.
And that's ignoring the warnings European authorities are issuing these days. It's pretty public information at this point that European authorities expect open ("kinetic" if you will) hostilities between Germany, France and Russia to open somewhere between March 2026 and Jan 2027. That will crash the stock market. That will crash the housing market. That will probably even crash the gold market, AI or no AI. Imho, that will crash the value of fucking Trump tower. The places these warnings are coming from are very serious and not known for joking on these matters (like the German chancillary, which if anything is far too conservative, or the French department of health, which has literally never issued a warning like this)
- infecto 11mo agoBut isn’t what in the past? The market has always over time gone up to the right. Very serious and not joking? Ok go time the market. My point stands market timing is impossible. Historically you have always been best suited by being in the market. Could that change? Sure but I don’t think you can time that or be prepared for it.
- spwa4 11mo ago> But isn’t what in the past? The idea that you can build in safety against stock market crashes by investing in treasury funds or the more general stocks vs bonds. They have synchronized and if something goes wrong it will be a total disaster for people and pension funds regardless of the traditional wisdom.