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We know over the long term it is exceptionally hard to beat the market, timing the market is near impossible. Everyone keeps talking about a bubble but we don’t

by infecto 11mo ago

We know over the long term it is exceptionally hard to beat the market, timing the market is near impossible. Everyone keeps talking about a bubble but we don’t know how big of one it is or when/if it will pop. You are better off being in the market than betting on an idea that you don’t know will even happen or when. I definitely think there is over enthusiasm in the space but at the same time I am not convinced that the demand for compute has let off yet. My take is always you could build up some cash reserve in treasuries or somewhere like that and deploy it if a pop does happen. You will miss out on the potential growth but if you wanted to participate that is one way imo.

spwa4 11mo ago
But isn't that in the past? Look at stocks: everything is synchronizing, for years now. Either something like 85% of stocks all go up, with a predictable difference between them (meaning, e.g. META moves about double GOOG does, whichever way it goes, up or down), or 85% of stocks all go down. SPY, VOO. And in fact the only ones that make a move to speak of are the MAG7. It isn't just that they're the fastest to rise, they're the only ones that beat the market. Zoom out and you'll see that in recent years you can include even non-stock-market assets in this argument. Housing ... same (of course there I understand), Gold, surprisingly, same. And that's ignoring the warnings European authorities are issuing these days. It's pretty public information at this point that European authorities expect open ("kinetic" if you will) hostilities between Germany, France and Russia to open somewhere between March 2026 and Jan 2027. That will crash the stock market. That will crash the housing market. That will probably even crash the gold market, AI or no AI. Imho, that will crash the value of fucking Trump tower. The places these warnings are coming from are very serious and not known for joking on these matters (like the German chancillary, which if anything is far too conservative, or the French department of health, which has literally never issued a warning like this)
- infecto 11mo ago
  But isn’t what in the past? The market has always over time gone up to the right. Very serious and not joking? Ok go time the market. My point stands market timing is impossible. Historically you have always been best suited by being in the market. Could that change? Sure but I don’t think you can time that or be prepared for it.
  - spwa4 11mo ago
    > But isn’t what in the past? The idea that you can build in safety against stock market crashes by investing in treasury funds or the more general stocks vs bonds. They have synchronized and if something goes wrong it will be a total disaster for people and pension funds regardless of the traditional wisdom.
square_usual 11mo ago
> You are better off being in the market than betting on an idea that you don’t know will even happen or when. This is true if you're willing to wait forever, but if you have near- and medium-term goals, you should not be investing money in the market if you believe there will be a crash. I have such goals and I'm putting my money into treasuries instead of putting more into what I believe is a very overvalued market.
- infecto 11mo ago
  Being in the market does not specify what market. It’s more about you being unable to predict movements and it’s better to always be in than out.

by infecto 11mo ago

spwa4 11mo ago

But isn't that in the past? Look at stocks: everything is synchronizing, for years now. Either something like 85% of stocks all go up, with a predictable difference between them (meaning, e.g. META moves about double GOOG does, whichever way it goes, up or down), or 85% of stocks all go down. SPY, VOO. And in fact the only ones that make a move to speak of are the MAG7. It isn't just that they're the fastest to rise, they're the only ones that beat the market. Zoom out and you'll see that in recent years you can include even non-stock-market assets in this argument. Housing ... same (of course there I understand), Gold, surprisingly, same. And that's ignoring the warnings European authorities are issuing these days. It's pretty public information at this point that European authorities expect open ("kinetic" if you will) hostilities between Germany, France and Russia to open somewhere between March 2026 and Jan 2027. That will crash the stock market. That will crash the housing market. That will probably even crash the gold market, AI or no AI. Imho, that will crash the value of fucking Trump tower. The places these warnings are coming from are very serious and not known for joking on these matters (like the German chancillary, which if anything is far too conservative, or the French department of health, which has literally never issued a warning like this)

infecto 11mo ago
But isn’t what in the past? The market has always over time gone up to the right. Very serious and not joking? Ok go time the market. My point stands market timing is impossible. Historically you have always been best suited by being in the market. Could that change? Sure but I don’t think you can time that or be prepared for it.
- spwa4 11mo ago
  > But isn’t what in the past? The idea that you can build in safety against stock market crashes by investing in treasury funds or the more general stocks vs bonds. They have synchronized and if something goes wrong it will be a total disaster for people and pension funds regardless of the traditional wisdom.

square_usual 11mo ago

> You are better off being in the market than betting on an idea that you don’t know will even happen or when. This is true if you're willing to wait forever, but if you have near- and medium-term goals, you should not be investing money in the market if you believe there will be a crash. I have such goals and I'm putting my money into treasuries instead of putting more into what I believe is a very overvalued market.

infecto 11mo ago
Being in the market does not specify what market. It’s more about you being unable to predict movements and it’s better to always be in than out.