4 ms·

Thanks. To pick on one important word ... > ditching ... Taiwan in favor of ... China Is that really an accurate description? The US continued to explicitly s

by mmooss 11mo ago

Thanks. To pick on one important word ... > ditching ... Taiwan in favor of ... China Is that really an accurate description? The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). The change was that the US had formerly recognized Taiwan as the government of all China and therefore possesor of China's UN Security Council seat, and in their deal with Mao switched to recognizing China. The following is my understanding: The civil war ended 1949; the Communists won, and the Nationalists fled to Taiwan. That is well-known; the following is a bit of speculation: For awhile, arguably it might have been plausible to deny Communist rule and imagine the Nationalists could govern China, maybe by reinvading and another uprising like those China had experienced since 1911 - the Communists were very weak. But by 1970 the result of the civil war must have been clear and the idea of the Taiwanese Nationalists as government of mainland China was a pointless fiction. But it was very important to the Communists and a valuable chit in a negotiation. Taiwan's hurt feelings were irrelevant - they were dependent on the US and couldn't do anything about it. Recognizing the reality of Communist mainland control had little cost and great gain.

alephnerd 11mo ago
> Is that really an accurate description? Yes. The Taiwanese reaction [0] to US-led modernization of the PLA in the 1980s [1], the Reagan admin's snub of the Taiwanese military regime [2], it's retaliation against Taiwan for assasinating Henry Liu in Daly City [3][4], and Trump-style tariffs against Taiwan [5] that ended up [6] becoming a sanctions regime [7] lead to a sense of distrust of the US by 1980s-90s Taiwanese leadership and it's international isolation [8]. Looking back, the playbook Trump is using against China today is almost the exact same as the one the Reagan administration used against Taiwan. > The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). This became a US policy under the Clinton administration, with it's support for Tibetan sovereignty [10], it's rehabilitation of American ties to Taiwan [11] during collapsing ties with China [12], and the US Navy's show of force in the Taiwan Straits [13] which lead to the current Taiwan policy [14] [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-tech-sale-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-t... [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-arms-policy.html https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-a... [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.h... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-t... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-killing-of-us-journalist.html https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-... [5] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-trade-gap-with-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-t... [6] - https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-sanctions.html https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-... [7] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanctions-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanction... [8] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-rebuild-its-position-in-global-community.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-re... [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-the-us-on-taiwan-arms-and-tibet.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-t... [10] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [11] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [12] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-states-and-china-are-on-a-collision-course.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-st... [13] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-ships-to-taiwan-area-in-warning-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-shi... [14] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan...
- mmooss 11mo ago
  I don't doubt what you're saying. I didn't know about Reagan's sanctions; that is very interesting. I do know well Clinton's move in the Taiwan Strait and its consequences. > This became a US policy under the Clinton administration What about Carter's Taiwan Relations Act? Or was that not really implemented by Reagan? And how did Taiwan remain independent for 20 years from Nixon to Clinton? I assumed it had to be our support. I understand the PLA was weak and inward-focused and couldn't mount a cross-Strait invasion, but someone had to trade with and arm Taiwan. Japan seems implausible for historical reasons and for their pacificism; South Korea wasn't powerful enough then, probably very focused north, and wouldn't want to antagonize the Communists; I doubt Europeans were involved so far afield ...
  - alephnerd 11mo ago
    > What about Carter's Taiwan Relations Act? Or was that not really implemented by Reagan? It was enacted by the "China Lobby" [0] in Congress, and Carter had no choice but to ratify it due to his crumbling popularity during his reelection campaign. Before Israel developed staunch bipartisan support in Congress in the 1990s, the most powerful foreign lobby was the ROC's due to Chiang Kai Shek's wife Soong Mei Ling and her family - they were all products of the New England boarding school-to-Ivy League pipeline and her brother T.V. Soong was one of the largest shareholders in General Motors and DuPont and was one of the richest people in the world from the 1940s-60s [1] and was personal friends with the future Senator (and Republican presidential candidate) Barry Goldwater back when T.V. Soong helped bankroll the "Hump" during WW2 [8] (I recommend reading "The Soong Dynasty" by Seagrave to learn more). > And how did Taiwan remain independent for 20 years from Nixon to Clinton? I assumed it had to be our support It was partially because of the China Lobby, the PLA's de facto loss of institutional capacity due to the Cultural Revolution and the subsequent purge due to it's failure in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War [2], military pressure from India [3], Vietnam [4], North Korea [5], and the Soviet Union [6] making the PRC feel encircled, and Taiwanese attempts at economic diplomacy in then poverty stricken PRC that needed foreign capital to rebuild [9][10]. > I doubt Europeans were involved so far afield They supported PLA modernization [7]. > probably very focused north, and wouldn't want to antagonize the Communists The South Korean military junta in the 1980s was pro-America and aligned with the US policy to mend ties with China. > Japan seems implausible for historical reasons Japan aligned with US policy at the time and began mending ties with China in the early 1980s which lead to a massive counter-reaction that became the seeds of Nippon Kaigi (the nationalist movement that every Japanese PM has been a member of since the late 1990s) [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_lobby_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_lobby_in_the_United_Stat... [1] - https://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/mill-1-timeline-soong.htm?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeySXw5htbBRusdMndinTA9J0xBzOA0zp8DLSaE9RVV1T0sykfxTpgF&gaa_ts=693f68be&gaa_sig=s7wdw56t_ZrUaXZkSRer4DCLXD-_V5xgEnktXKLqXVd5eXOBQ66Z7wBJowXj4-VnZ7ItKCnfsXicGbjfE4d5Lg%3D%3D https://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/mill-1-timeli... [2] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10670564.2019.1580430 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10670564.2019.15... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1987/05/08/world/india-and-china-cite-each-other-for-massing-troops-in-himalayas.html https://www.nytimes.com/1987/05/08/world/india-and-china-cit... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/07/14/world/peking-hanoi-interests-split-after-vietnam-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/07/14/world/peking-hanoi-intere... [5] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/05/05/world/china-turns-attention-to-ties-with-soviet-and-north-korea.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/05/05/world/china-turns-attenti... [6] - https://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/21/world/soviet-china-talks-end-with-2-sides-at-odds.html https://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/21/world/soviet-china-talks-... [7] - https://www.nytimes.com/1978/04/14/archives/china-looking-to-western-europe-for-arms-supplies-military-analysis.html https://www.nytimes.com/1978/04/14/archives/china-looking-to... [8] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hump [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/05/20/world/first-china-taiwan-talks-yield-accord.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/05/20/world/first-china-taiwan-... [10] - https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/13/world/taiwan-to-allow-more-china-links.html https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/13/world/taiwan-to-allow-mor...

by mmooss 11mo ago

alephnerd 11mo ago

> Is that really an accurate description? Yes. The Taiwanese reaction [0] to US-led modernization of the PLA in the 1980s [1], the Reagan admin's snub of the Taiwanese military regime [2], it's retaliation against Taiwan for assasinating Henry Liu in Daly City [3][4], and Trump-style tariffs against Taiwan [5] that ended up [6] becoming a sanctions regime [7] lead to a sense of distrust of the US by 1980s-90s Taiwanese leadership and it's international isolation [8]. Looking back, the playbook Trump is using against China today is almost the exact same as the one the Reagan administration used against Taiwan. > The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). This became a US policy under the Clinton administration, with it's support for Tibetan sovereignty [10], it's rehabilitation of American ties to Taiwan [11] during collapsing ties with China [12], and the US Navy's show of force in the Taiwan Straits [13] which lead to the current Taiwan policy [14] [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-tech-sale-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-t... [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-arms-policy.html https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-a... [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.h... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-t... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-killing-of-us-journalist.html https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-... [5] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-trade-gap-with-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-t... [6] - https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-sanctions.html https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-... [7] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanctions-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanction... [8] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-rebuild-its-position-in-global-community.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-re... [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-the-us-on-taiwan-arms-and-tibet.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-t... [10] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [11] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [12] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-states-and-china-are-on-a-collision-course.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-st... [13] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-ships-to-taiwan-area-in-warning-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-shi... [14] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan...

mmooss 11mo ago
I don't doubt what you're saying. I didn't know about Reagan's sanctions; that is very interesting. I do know well Clinton's move in the Taiwan Strait and its consequences. > This became a US policy under the Clinton administration What about Carter's Taiwan Relations Act? Or was that not really implemented by Reagan? And how did Taiwan remain independent for 20 years from Nixon to Clinton? I assumed it had to be our support. I understand the PLA was weak and inward-focused and couldn't mount a cross-Strait invasion, but someone had to trade with and arm Taiwan. Japan seems implausible for historical reasons and for their pacificism; South Korea wasn't powerful enough then, probably very focused north, and wouldn't want to antagonize the Communists; I doubt Europeans were involved so far afield ...
- alephnerd 11mo ago
  > What about Carter's Taiwan Relations Act? Or was that not really implemented by Reagan? It was enacted by the "China Lobby" [0] in Congress, and Carter had no choice but to ratify it due to his crumbling popularity during his reelection campaign. Before Israel developed staunch bipartisan support in Congress in the 1990s, the most powerful foreign lobby was the ROC's due to Chiang Kai Shek's wife Soong Mei Ling and her family - they were all products of the New England boarding school-to-Ivy League pipeline and her brother T.V. Soong was one of the largest shareholders in General Motors and DuPont and was one of the richest people in the world from the 1940s-60s [1] and was personal friends with the future Senator (and Republican presidential candidate) Barry Goldwater back when T.V. Soong helped bankroll the "Hump" during WW2 [8] (I recommend reading "The Soong Dynasty" by Seagrave to learn more). > And how did Taiwan remain independent for 20 years from Nixon to Clinton? I assumed it had to be our support It was partially because of the China Lobby, the PLA's de facto loss of institutional capacity due to the Cultural Revolution and the subsequent purge due to it's failure in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War [2], military pressure from India [3], Vietnam [4], North Korea [5], and the Soviet Union [6] making the PRC feel encircled, and Taiwanese attempts at economic diplomacy in then poverty stricken PRC that needed foreign capital to rebuild [9][10]. > I doubt Europeans were involved so far afield They supported PLA modernization [7]. > probably very focused north, and wouldn't want to antagonize the Communists The South Korean military junta in the 1980s was pro-America and aligned with the US policy to mend ties with China. > Japan seems implausible for historical reasons Japan aligned with US policy at the time and began mending ties with China in the early 1980s which lead to a massive counter-reaction that became the seeds of Nippon Kaigi (the nationalist movement that every Japanese PM has been a member of since the late 1990s) [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_lobby_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_lobby_in_the_United_Stat... [1] - https://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/mill-1-timeline-soong.htm?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeySXw5htbBRusdMndinTA9J0xBzOA0zp8DLSaE9RVV1T0sykfxTpgF&gaa_ts=693f68be&gaa_sig=s7wdw56t_ZrUaXZkSRer4DCLXD-_V5xgEnktXKLqXVd5eXOBQ66Z7wBJowXj4-VnZ7ItKCnfsXicGbjfE4d5Lg%3D%3D https://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/mill-1-timeli... [2] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10670564.2019.1580430 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10670564.2019.15... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1987/05/08/world/india-and-china-cite-each-other-for-massing-troops-in-himalayas.html https://www.nytimes.com/1987/05/08/world/india-and-china-cit... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/07/14/world/peking-hanoi-interests-split-after-vietnam-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/07/14/world/peking-hanoi-intere... [5] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/05/05/world/china-turns-attention-to-ties-with-soviet-and-north-korea.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/05/05/world/china-turns-attenti... [6] - https://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/21/world/soviet-china-talks-end-with-2-sides-at-odds.html https://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/21/world/soviet-china-talks-... [7] - https://www.nytimes.com/1978/04/14/archives/china-looking-to-western-europe-for-arms-supplies-military-analysis.html https://www.nytimes.com/1978/04/14/archives/china-looking-to... [8] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hump [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/05/20/world/first-china-taiwan-talks-yield-accord.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/05/20/world/first-china-taiwan-... [10] - https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/13/world/taiwan-to-allow-more-china-links.html https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/13/world/taiwan-to-allow-mor...