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The US also pivoted to de facto allying with China by the 1970s. In the eyes of contemporary NatSec leadership like Kissinger (Nixon, Ford) and Brzezinski (LBJ

The US also pivoted to de facto allying with China by the 1970s. In the eyes of contemporary NatSec leadership like Kissinger (Nixon, Ford) and Brzezinski (LBJ, Carter), leveraging the Sino-Soviet split to box in the Soviets was the ideal option. As such, from 1972-1992 the US posted soldiers in Xinjiang monitoring the USSR [0], sponsored govenrnent led tech transfers and scientific collaboration [1], provided support for Chinese military modernization [2][3], and expanded economic cooperation [4]. This also played a role as to why US intel in the 2000s assumed Xi Jinping would be pro-American [5], as he started his career working on the US supported modernization of the PLA as a junior secretary to Geng Biao [6] - who was the primary reason the Maoist regime was overthrown in the 1970s. By the 1970s, the primary NatSec goal was blocking the USSR, and as a result realism became the primary foreign policy strategy used by the US. As such, you ended up seeing policies like ditching India and Taiwan in favor of Pakistan and China, supporting communist Somalia over not-really-communist Dergist Ethiopia during the Ogaden War, and swaying then Soviet-aligned Egypt in favor of the US by cultivating Anwar Sadat and culminating in the Camp David Accords. [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/us-and-peking-join-in-tracking-missiles-in-soviet.html https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/us-and-peking-join-... [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93China_Agreement_on_Cooperation_in_Science_and_Technology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93China_Agreement_o... [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/17/world/us-decides-to-sell-weapons-to-china-in-policy-reversal.html https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/17/world/us-decides-to-sell-... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1979/10/04/archives/study-urges-us-aid-to-chinese-military-staff-paper-sees-peking-as-a.html https://www.nytimes.com/1979/10/04/archives/study-urges-us-a... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1983/05/26/business/us-china-investment-talks.html https://www.nytimes.com/1983/05/26/business/us-china-investm... [5] - https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BEIJING3128_a.html https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BEIJING3128_a.html [6] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geng_Biao https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geng_Biao

mmooss 11mo ago
Thanks. To pick on one important word ... > ditching ... Taiwan in favor of ... China Is that really an accurate description? The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). The change was that the US had formerly recognized Taiwan as the government of all China and therefore possesor of China's UN Security Council seat, and in their deal with Mao switched to recognizing China. The following is my understanding: The civil war ended 1949; the Communists won, and the Nationalists fled to Taiwan. That is well-known; the following is a bit of speculation: For awhile, arguably it might have been plausible to deny Communist rule and imagine the Nationalists could govern China, maybe by reinvading and another uprising like those China had experienced since 1911 - the Communists were very weak. But by 1970 the result of the civil war must have been clear and the idea of the Taiwanese Nationalists as government of mainland China was a pointless fiction. But it was very important to the Communists and a valuable chit in a negotiation. Taiwan's hurt feelings were irrelevant - they were dependent on the US and couldn't do anything about it. Recognizing the reality of Communist mainland control had little cost and great gain.
- alephnerd 11mo ago
  > Is that really an accurate description? Yes. The Taiwanese reaction [0] to US-led modernization of the PLA in the 1980s [1], the Reagan admin's snub of the Taiwanese military regime [2], it's retaliation against Taiwan for assasinating Henry Liu in Daly City [3][4], and Trump-style tariffs against Taiwan [5] that ended up [6] becoming a sanctions regime [7] lead to a sense of distrust of the US by 1980s-90s Taiwanese leadership and it's international isolation [8]. Looking back, the playbook Trump is using against China today is almost the exact same as the one the Reagan administration used against Taiwan. > The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). This became a US policy under the Clinton administration, with it's support for Tibetan sovereignty [10], it's rehabilitation of American ties to Taiwan [11] during collapsing ties with China [12], and the US Navy's show of force in the Taiwan Straits [13] which lead to the current Taiwan policy [14] [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-tech-sale-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-t... [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-arms-policy.html https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-a... [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.h... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-t... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-killing-of-us-journalist.html https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-... [5] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-trade-gap-with-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-t... [6] - https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-sanctions.html https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-... [7] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanctions-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanction... [8] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-rebuild-its-position-in-global-community.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-re... [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-the-us-on-taiwan-arms-and-tibet.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-t... [10] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [11] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [12] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-states-and-china-are-on-a-collision-course.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-st... [13] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-ships-to-taiwan-area-in-warning-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-shi... [14] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan...

mmooss 11mo ago

Thanks. To pick on one important word ... > ditching ... Taiwan in favor of ... China Is that really an accurate description? The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). The change was that the US had formerly recognized Taiwan as the government of all China and therefore possesor of China's UN Security Council seat, and in their deal with Mao switched to recognizing China. The following is my understanding: The civil war ended 1949; the Communists won, and the Nationalists fled to Taiwan. That is well-known; the following is a bit of speculation: For awhile, arguably it might have been plausible to deny Communist rule and imagine the Nationalists could govern China, maybe by reinvading and another uprising like those China had experienced since 1911 - the Communists were very weak. But by 1970 the result of the civil war must have been clear and the idea of the Taiwanese Nationalists as government of mainland China was a pointless fiction. But it was very important to the Communists and a valuable chit in a negotiation. Taiwan's hurt feelings were irrelevant - they were dependent on the US and couldn't do anything about it. Recognizing the reality of Communist mainland control had little cost and great gain.

alephnerd 11mo ago
> Is that really an accurate description? Yes. The Taiwanese reaction [0] to US-led modernization of the PLA in the 1980s [1], the Reagan admin's snub of the Taiwanese military regime [2], it's retaliation against Taiwan for assasinating Henry Liu in Daly City [3][4], and Trump-style tariffs against Taiwan [5] that ended up [6] becoming a sanctions regime [7] lead to a sense of distrust of the US by 1980s-90s Taiwanese leadership and it's international isolation [8]. Looking back, the playbook Trump is using against China today is almost the exact same as the one the Reagan administration used against Taiwan. > The US continued to explicitly support Taiwan's political and military separation from China, and compelled China to agree to it - as long as Taiwan didn't try to leave China and form another country, they could remain as they were (and are). This became a US policy under the Clinton administration, with it's support for Tibetan sovereignty [10], it's rehabilitation of American ties to Taiwan [11] during collapsing ties with China [12], and the US Navy's show of force in the Taiwan Straits [13] which lead to the current Taiwan policy [14] [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-tech-sale-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/09/world/big-military-high-t... [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-arms-policy.html https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/18/world/taiwan-assails-us-a... [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.html https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/28/world/reagan-s-reversal.h... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/11/opinion/the-long-arm-of-t... [4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-killing-of-us-journalist.html https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/31/us/taiwan-held-liable-in-... [5] - https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-trade-gap-with-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/24/business/correcting-the-t... [6] - https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-sanctions.html https://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/19/business/taiwan-may-face-... [7] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanctions-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/12/business/us-puts-sanction... [8] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-rebuild-its-position-in-global-community.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/26/world/taiwan-pushes-to-re... [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-the-us-on-taiwan-arms-and-tibet.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/06/world/china-protests-to-t... [10] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [11] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward-taiwan-needs-a-clinton-redo.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/30/opinion/IHT-policy-toward... [12] - https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-states-and-china-are-on-a-collision-course.html https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/18/opinion/IHT-the-united-st... [13] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-ships-to-taiwan-area-in-warning-to-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/11/world/us-sending-more-shi... [14] - https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/ambiguity-on-taiwan...