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This is not really the same level of argument. The post is arguing against the idea that software is incredibly cheap to make through AI right now, not that AI
by vouwfietsman 10mo ago
This is not really the same level of argument. The post is arguing against the idea that software is incredibly cheap to make through AI right now, not that AI cannot ever make complete software products from scratch in the future.
- falcor84 10mo agoOk, well, rereading TFA again, it does seem to say that, but I took it as hyperbole. I'm not familiar with any of even the staunchest GenAI visionaries claiming: > Why buy a CRM solution or a ERM system when “AI” can generate one for you in hours or even minutes? Obviously that's a strawman argument that shouldn't be taken at face-value. AI-generated software is rapidly improving, but it will take some time until it can do that sort of work without human intervention. Extrapolating from METR's chart[0], we should expect a SotA AI to one-shot a modern commercial CRM in around the early 2030s. It's then up to anyone here to decide if that's something we should actively prepare for already (I personally think we should). [0] https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...
- vouwfietsman 10mo agoAlthough that particular claim is sensational, the main argument does not depend on sensational claims. The article is not straw-manning the AI argument, its steel-manning it: show me any improvement in software delivery after the invention of generative AI. Apparently even that bar cannot be cleared....