In this plot http://imgur.com/BAEie http://imgur.com/BAEie you can see the difference between a gaussian model and the model I use for the translating state pol

In this plot http://imgur.com/BAEie http://imgur.com/BAEie you can see the difference between a gaussian model and the model I use for the translating state poll differences into probabilities of winning that state. I prefer to have the flat region of 50% probability when the state poll difference is small, which the gaussian model doesn't have, to take into account (a) the various errors in the polling data and (b) the likelihood that people's minds can change by the time the election comes. As to how much difference it would make, with the current model, Obama's probability is now at 81%, whereas with the Gaussian model it would be around 95%.