3 ms·

Make a bug out plan. Assume roads and cars are not an option. Assume you will be able to claim political asylum in another nation. Pack a bag.

ericmcer 11mo ago
What nation? All the "democratic" western nations are moving in this direction.
- willis936 11mo ago
  This is a survivalist exercise. You're not going to fix the world's problems while trying to avoid being put into a labor camp.
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quesera 11mo ago
> Assume roads and cars are not an option Walk to Canada? That works from some areas.
- willis936 11mo ago
  Yes. Or Mexico. It's a longer walk for some more than others, but almost all of the political targets live near coastal cities that are within a month of a border. This would not be a trivial journey, but it would also not be insurmountable for many determined people. Survival ends up being a strong motivator.
  - quesera 11mo ago
    I think this is just an appealing fantasy. 80% of modern Americans would not survive and successfully complete a month-long walk of hundreds of miles. Add in the logistical challenges, necessary supplies, and secrecy ... and of course the possibility of harsh seasonal weather ... and I think we're talking about a 5% survival rate, at the absolute max. People might think they are more likely to be in that 5% than their neighbors, but I suspect most of the dangers are random or universal enough that this would not be true. Fortune favors the prepared, certainly. But that only gets you so far. There is no viable bug out strategy, after a certain point (and that point is far from today, and will likely never be reached). But there are midterm elections, and those are important.
    - willis936 11mo ago
      That's why I'm saying make a plan and pack a bag. That rate goes up by many factors with preparation. That is a fact, not a fantasy.
      - quesera 11mo ago
        I agree that having a plan and a bag raises your rate. I just think the variables outside of your control, once your scenario starts unfolding in earnest, are vastly larger than those inside it. But again, I don't think it matters. The current insanity has an expiration date, and I think the useful calculation is to ask yourself whether "badly damaged but slowly recovering to a new but lesser plateau" is where you want to spend the next couple decades, or not. If that's an acceptable compromise for the benefits of staying, then stay. If it is not, then get out now while it's easy. I've done this math for myself, and it was a very close call, but I'm in a highly advantaged physical location. Most people are not. [Edit: And, I reserve the right (ha) to make a new decision at any time I feel necessary. To that end, I have arrangements, and plans, but I have not yet packed a bag. :) ]

ericmcer 11mo ago

What nation? All the "democratic" western nations are moving in this direction.

willis936 11mo ago
This is a survivalist exercise. You're not going to fix the world's problems while trying to avoid being put into a labor camp.
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quesera 11mo ago

> Assume roads and cars are not an option Walk to Canada? That works from some areas.

willis936 11mo ago
Yes. Or Mexico. It's a longer walk for some more than others, but almost all of the political targets live near coastal cities that are within a month of a border. This would not be a trivial journey, but it would also not be insurmountable for many determined people. Survival ends up being a strong motivator.
- quesera 11mo ago
  I think this is just an appealing fantasy. 80% of modern Americans would not survive and successfully complete a month-long walk of hundreds of miles. Add in the logistical challenges, necessary supplies, and secrecy ... and of course the possibility of harsh seasonal weather ... and I think we're talking about a 5% survival rate, at the absolute max. People might think they are more likely to be in that 5% than their neighbors, but I suspect most of the dangers are random or universal enough that this would not be true. Fortune favors the prepared, certainly. But that only gets you so far. There is no viable bug out strategy, after a certain point (and that point is far from today, and will likely never be reached). But there are midterm elections, and those are important.
  - willis936 11mo ago
    That's why I'm saying make a plan and pack a bag. That rate goes up by many factors with preparation. That is a fact, not a fantasy.
    - quesera 11mo ago
      I agree that having a plan and a bag raises your rate. I just think the variables outside of your control, once your scenario starts unfolding in earnest, are vastly larger than those inside it. But again, I don't think it matters. The current insanity has an expiration date, and I think the useful calculation is to ask yourself whether "badly damaged but slowly recovering to a new but lesser plateau" is where you want to spend the next couple decades, or not. If that's an acceptable compromise for the benefits of staying, then stay. If it is not, then get out now while it's easy. I've done this math for myself, and it was a very close call, but I'm in a highly advantaged physical location. Most people are not. [Edit: And, I reserve the right (ha) to make a new decision at any time I feel necessary. To that end, I have arrangements, and plans, but I have not yet packed a bag. :) ]