3 ms·

I'm lost. What are some of his latest predictions that came true?

• wtallis 14y ago
  Why do you only care about his recent predictions? What's unconvincing about the track record of the rest of his career?
  • spindritf 14y ago
    If he has a good method, if he's on a right track, that method should generally be improving with more work and data so recent predictions should generally be better than distant ones. Also, "You're only as good as your last envelope."
• paulgb 14y ago
  From Wikipedia[1]: > Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). As his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race. The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad,[49] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator.[50] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#2008_U.S._elections http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#2008_U.S._elections