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Doubt it. If as rumored, Apple releases an iPad 'mini', I think this is going to be an iPod situation, where the iPad grabs the majority of the market, with a l

Doubt it. If as rumored, Apple releases an iPad 'mini', I think this is going to be an iPod situation, where the iPad grabs the majority of the market, with a lot of smaller manufacturers picking up the bits. The thing is, Android phones were pushed by carriers. For tablets, this hardly happens, although I've seen "free tablet" promotions when getting a new internet connection, but that has hardly done anything as far as I know. The Kindle fire might be a contender, but I don't really see that as a real competitor, and that's hardly Android. The software quality also seems to be very low to me. And then you have Microsoft, who is making the same mistakes they made the first time they attempted a tablet. They will maybe sell a few, but if the sales of the 'ultrabooks' are a good indication, expensive tablets running Windows 8 won't be the success they're hoping for. I know dozens of people having an iPad, including complete non-techies - and they love it. I know 1 guy with an Asus transformer, and 1 with a Galaxy tab 10", both IT guys. The Asus's build quality surprised me in the positive way, the galaxy tab in a negative way. In both cases, I thought the software was useless, and web-browsing slow and sluggish compared to my iPad 2. That said, the moment I can order a Nexus 7 here in Belgium, I'm getting one.

w1ntermute 14y ago
> I know 1 guy with an Asus transformer I don't know why people are making such a big deal about Samsung tablets and Kindle Fires but completely ignoring the Asus Transformer line. The Asus Transformer Pad Infinity is an amazing tablet with good hardware that runs stock Jelly Bean. I've had a Transformer Prime for almost a year and it's been a great device, but it's like no one has even heard of it. It's a really weird situation, perhaps caused by a lack of advertising (much like the Galaxy Nexus).
- manojlds 14y ago
  Nah, people were going crazy about the Prime pre-launch. And Asus messed it up with delays and poor WiFi, non-existant GPS and then srewing customers who did buy it by announcing "better" model soon after.
  - w1ntermute 14y ago
    I kept hearing about these issues, but never saw them myself. Maybe those people having the issues were holding the tablet wrong? Besides, the Transformer Pad Infinity hasn't had these issues, has it?
    - bergie 14y ago
      I didn't have any major problems with the Transformer Prime. GPS on that big tablet is pretty much useless anyway, and the battery life given my the keyboard was awesome on conference trips. Here is a liveblog I wrote with vim on the Prime: http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/symfony-live/ http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/symfony-live/ I even had a Ubuntu chroot on the machine for Node.js projects, and if the keyboard hadn't been so bad that could be now my primary computer. Instead, I switched it to Nexus 7 and again do any longer writing on my 11" MBA...
- StavrosK 14y ago
  I don't know, I bought one months ago and I love it to bits. It's the best tablet I've ever owned, hands down, and I used to have an iPad before.
enraged_camel 14y ago
Not only is iPad popular, it also has an incredible amount of market penetration in a large variety of industries. You have airlines talking about giving their pilots iPads, you have schools giving their teachers and even students iPads for classroom learning, you have car manufacturers designing iPad docks for their cars with integrated controls... it is extremely unlikely that a competitor is going to be able to dislodge Apple from their leadership position anytime soon. If I were an Apple competitor, I'd forget about tablets and smartphones and invest all my resources into developing the next "big thing". The reason is simple: Apple cannot be beat in its own game. So the smart thing to do is to innovate a new revolutionary device, something that will create its own category. I'd say that the only tech company who has the potential for a feat of this magnitude is Google. However, even they seem to lack focus. That's one huge advantage that Apple had: Steve Jobs' extraordinary focus and vision. If you look at Google, you see that they are working on cool projects like self-driving cars and Google Glass, but what they need is a technology that converges these inventions in one physical device. And that's possible only with a visionary who will set a clear and ambitious direction for all the various product teams at Google.
- bdcravens 14y ago
  I think there's a ton of room at the bottom. There was a time when DVD players and home computers were out of the reach of the poor or lower middle class. Most (responsible) people can't afford a $500+ tablet, but the promise of tablet computing still applies to them. It's a lie to say that the promise of tablet computing can only be accomplished in a $500+ package. There's tons of room for tablets that are $250 or less - see all the "low end" phone providers that now have Android offerings.
  - enraged_camel 14y ago
    There's room at the bottom in terms of market share, but not in terms of profits. Android has captured a bigger chunk of the market, but Apple is reaping most of the profits (since their devices are high margin) and is therefore in a much better position to innovate or leap on opportunities that come up. I mean, who wouldn't want to sit on a $120+ billion warchest? What's going to be really interesting is when (if) the "iPad Mini" comes out. There was an article on Ars Technica last month where a reputable analyst claimed Apple found a way to manufacture iPad Minis with the last generation iPad's components. What that means is that even at $250, the device would be extremely high margin. Not only would it allow Apple to lock down the lower market segment, but also result in a huge increase in profits. From a business standpoint it seems like a no-brainer, because a cheap and yet high margin device is not something that other manufacturers can imitate.
myspy 14y ago
Doubt it too. What underwhelms me the most are the apps/general software. I have a Nexus 7 and I don't really know what to do with it anymore. I played around with it a lot, and put some emulators on it, but having to go back to a file browser for reading a book or putting on music is giving me a PC feeling, and I don't really want a tablet to feel like a PC. Furthermore, it's no fun to do web browsing, because the browser has very small touch targets and I have to take a lot of steps accessing my bookmarks I sync via Chrome for Mac. Listening to music is bad. The player software sucks, it lacks any finish and small subtle things I like on the iOS version. And the headphone jack delivers bad sound quality. Apps are generally blown up phone versions. The bigger screen is not really used. I don't like the software buttons, they tempt me to get accidentally touched. I would prefer a physical button. And another mild annoyance is the button to switch it on, which is on the site and I very often touch it when trying to make it louder. Also you always have to touch that small button instead of having a button under the screen to activate the device which is very slow. When you have kids, get them an iPad, especially with the "boring" grid layout of icons, its easier for them to access apps. And they stay in a app, without touching one of the always on software buttons. Maybe my general problem is, I don't want to use Googles ecosystem. I don't think it's very likable. For instance the music app. For Google it's something they put on there, because you need it, but they put no real effort behind it. From Apple I get the impression, people are working on it, who want to achieve a great music listening experience. It's the same with buying content. I don't really feel it at Google. It caters more to the nerd, where is the humanity? This should not prevent you from getting one. But I very much doubt that an Android tablet is as useful for the average user as an iPad and therefore gaining as much market share. Maybe Amazon will find a way to gain marketshare with their ecosystem, but the software appears to suck. And Microsoft, they will struggle first to get decent applications for their tablets, and who will do RT software, when the full desktop version could be right around the corner? The Nexus 7, I handed it over to my wife, she uses it as an e-reader, the screen is great for that. Personally I'm looking forward to a smaller iPad 3 or iPad mini. Maybe a Surface in the near future.
MatthewPhillips 14y ago
I see tablets and PCs merging more in the future, as the current trends indicate. Tablets will become smarter, PCs dumber. They'll meet somewhere in the middle. That being the case, the market is too big, and too important, to have 1 single hardware/software vendor dominate it in the way iPod dominated the music player market. The iPod's dominance had a negative effect on that market; it effectively killed it. And once Apple found something more profitable, they stopped innovating on it as well.
- bergie 14y ago
  I wrote something about this in http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/tablet-productivity/ http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/tablet-productivity/ Basically I see the culture (especially in business apps and communication) slowly adapt to tablets and smartphones, instead of them converging with text-based PC ideas
adestefan 14y ago
If the iPad mini rumors end up being true, I'll sell my Nexus 7 for the iPad mini. I've had a terrible experience with both the hardware and tablet versions of Android apps. I'd be happy to get $100 out of my Nexus 7 that's how unhappy I've been.
- robocat 14y ago
  If you are happy to ship to New Zealand I am keen (Nexus 7 is expensive here). I already bought one second hand for my brother but I want one for myself (now I found out I love Nexus 7 more than an iPad!) c d r c a t A T g m a i l . c o m PS: This thread already removed from HN, so hopefully it is OK that I am adding irrelevant comment noise?

w1ntermute 14y ago

> I know 1 guy with an Asus transformer I don't know why people are making such a big deal about Samsung tablets and Kindle Fires but completely ignoring the Asus Transformer line. The Asus Transformer Pad Infinity is an amazing tablet with good hardware that runs stock Jelly Bean. I've had a Transformer Prime for almost a year and it's been a great device, but it's like no one has even heard of it. It's a really weird situation, perhaps caused by a lack of advertising (much like the Galaxy Nexus).

manojlds 14y ago
Nah, people were going crazy about the Prime pre-launch. And Asus messed it up with delays and poor WiFi, non-existant GPS and then srewing customers who did buy it by announcing "better" model soon after.
- w1ntermute 14y ago
  I kept hearing about these issues, but never saw them myself. Maybe those people having the issues were holding the tablet wrong? Besides, the Transformer Pad Infinity hasn't had these issues, has it?
  - bergie 14y ago
    I didn't have any major problems with the Transformer Prime. GPS on that big tablet is pretty much useless anyway, and the battery life given my the keyboard was awesome on conference trips. Here is a liveblog I wrote with vim on the Prime: http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/symfony-live/ http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/symfony-live/ I even had a Ubuntu chroot on the machine for Node.js projects, and if the keyboard hadn't been so bad that could be now my primary computer. Instead, I switched it to Nexus 7 and again do any longer writing on my 11" MBA...
StavrosK 14y ago
I don't know, I bought one months ago and I love it to bits. It's the best tablet I've ever owned, hands down, and I used to have an iPad before.

enraged_camel 14y ago

Not only is iPad popular, it also has an incredible amount of market penetration in a large variety of industries. You have airlines talking about giving their pilots iPads, you have schools giving their teachers and even students iPads for classroom learning, you have car manufacturers designing iPad docks for their cars with integrated controls... it is extremely unlikely that a competitor is going to be able to dislodge Apple from their leadership position anytime soon. If I were an Apple competitor, I'd forget about tablets and smartphones and invest all my resources into developing the next "big thing". The reason is simple: Apple cannot be beat in its own game. So the smart thing to do is to innovate a new revolutionary device, something that will create its own category. I'd say that the only tech company who has the potential for a feat of this magnitude is Google. However, even they seem to lack focus. That's one huge advantage that Apple had: Steve Jobs' extraordinary focus and vision. If you look at Google, you see that they are working on cool projects like self-driving cars and Google Glass, but what they need is a technology that converges these inventions in one physical device. And that's possible only with a visionary who will set a clear and ambitious direction for all the various product teams at Google.

bdcravens 14y ago
I think there's a ton of room at the bottom. There was a time when DVD players and home computers were out of the reach of the poor or lower middle class. Most (responsible) people can't afford a $500+ tablet, but the promise of tablet computing still applies to them. It's a lie to say that the promise of tablet computing can only be accomplished in a $500+ package. There's tons of room for tablets that are $250 or less - see all the "low end" phone providers that now have Android offerings.
- enraged_camel 14y ago
  There's room at the bottom in terms of market share, but not in terms of profits. Android has captured a bigger chunk of the market, but Apple is reaping most of the profits (since their devices are high margin) and is therefore in a much better position to innovate or leap on opportunities that come up. I mean, who wouldn't want to sit on a $120+ billion warchest? What's going to be really interesting is when (if) the "iPad Mini" comes out. There was an article on Ars Technica last month where a reputable analyst claimed Apple found a way to manufacture iPad Minis with the last generation iPad's components. What that means is that even at $250, the device would be extremely high margin. Not only would it allow Apple to lock down the lower market segment, but also result in a huge increase in profits. From a business standpoint it seems like a no-brainer, because a cheap and yet high margin device is not something that other manufacturers can imitate.

myspy 14y ago

Doubt it too. What underwhelms me the most are the apps/general software. I have a Nexus 7 and I don't really know what to do with it anymore. I played around with it a lot, and put some emulators on it, but having to go back to a file browser for reading a book or putting on music is giving me a PC feeling, and I don't really want a tablet to feel like a PC. Furthermore, it's no fun to do web browsing, because the browser has very small touch targets and I have to take a lot of steps accessing my bookmarks I sync via Chrome for Mac. Listening to music is bad. The player software sucks, it lacks any finish and small subtle things I like on the iOS version. And the headphone jack delivers bad sound quality. Apps are generally blown up phone versions. The bigger screen is not really used. I don't like the software buttons, they tempt me to get accidentally touched. I would prefer a physical button. And another mild annoyance is the button to switch it on, which is on the site and I very often touch it when trying to make it louder. Also you always have to touch that small button instead of having a button under the screen to activate the device which is very slow. When you have kids, get them an iPad, especially with the "boring" grid layout of icons, its easier for them to access apps. And they stay in a app, without touching one of the always on software buttons. Maybe my general problem is, I don't want to use Googles ecosystem. I don't think it's very likable. For instance the music app. For Google it's something they put on there, because you need it, but they put no real effort behind it. From Apple I get the impression, people are working on it, who want to achieve a great music listening experience. It's the same with buying content. I don't really feel it at Google. It caters more to the nerd, where is the humanity? This should not prevent you from getting one. But I very much doubt that an Android tablet is as useful for the average user as an iPad and therefore gaining as much market share. Maybe Amazon will find a way to gain marketshare with their ecosystem, but the software appears to suck. And Microsoft, they will struggle first to get decent applications for their tablets, and who will do RT software, when the full desktop version could be right around the corner? The Nexus 7, I handed it over to my wife, she uses it as an e-reader, the screen is great for that. Personally I'm looking forward to a smaller iPad 3 or iPad mini. Maybe a Surface in the near future.

MatthewPhillips 14y ago

I see tablets and PCs merging more in the future, as the current trends indicate. Tablets will become smarter, PCs dumber. They'll meet somewhere in the middle. That being the case, the market is too big, and too important, to have 1 single hardware/software vendor dominate it in the way iPod dominated the music player market. The iPod's dominance had a negative effect on that market; it effectively killed it. And once Apple found something more profitable, they stopped innovating on it as well.

bergie 14y ago
I wrote something about this in http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/tablet-productivity/ http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/tablet-productivity/ Basically I see the culture (especially in business apps and communication) slowly adapt to tablets and smartphones, instead of them converging with text-based PC ideas

adestefan 14y ago

If the iPad mini rumors end up being true, I'll sell my Nexus 7 for the iPad mini. I've had a terrible experience with both the hardware and tablet versions of Android apps. I'd be happy to get $100 out of my Nexus 7 that's how unhappy I've been.

robocat 14y ago
If you are happy to ship to New Zealand I am keen (Nexus 7 is expensive here). I already bought one second hand for my brother but I want one for myself (now I found out I love Nexus 7 more than an iPad!) c d r c a t A T g m a i l . c o m PS: This thread already removed from HN, so hopefully it is OK that I am adding irrelevant comment noise?