4 ms·

Sanctions just slightly increase the cost of obtaining an item, but don't make it impossible. Electronic components can be bought, oil can be sold, ChatGPT can

Sanctions just slightly increase the cost of obtaining an item, but don't make it impossible. Electronic components can be bought, oil can be sold, ChatGPT can be used via OpenRouter, sanctioned banks publish their apps under guise into App Store, etc. When there are 200 countries in the world, and money involved, you can get anything. Sanctioned goods could be used to spread propaganda though, imagine, for example, if installing a NVIDIA GPU driver required answering questions about Tiananmen square incident.

amarant 10mo ago
Imagine the correct answer being "what incident?"
kspacewalk2 10mo ago
I agree, except with the word "slightly". It can be so significant that this increased cost/friction is the very mechanism of the sanctions' effectiveness. Is it possible to police the Russian oil shadow fleet to extinction? Maybe, but even without doing so you can impose a decent haircut on their profits by issuing scary-sounding press releases and leaving it at that.
- codedokode 10mo ago
  Increased costs might be a factor in a competing commercial market, but for military purposes, you buy the components no matter the price or search for an alternative (China is now making lot of components - for example, resistors, transistors, logic chips - I have several 74HC chips of Chinese origin, and they are very cheap). Also, there are thousands ships and no legal basis for "policing" them in open sea.
littlecranky67 10mo ago
This. And it should be obvious. Drugs are banned and illegal in almost every country, yet they reach the US in vast amounts. Why would a ban on GPUs suddenly work - especially since owning a truckload of GPU is perfectly legal in most countries. Smuggling them to where the demand is, is probably easier than smuggling drugs.
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
- codedokode 10mo ago
  Maybe criminal cartels should switch to GPU trafficking?
  - bad_haircut72 10mo ago
    By now most Mafias of the world are probably trying to train their own models
  - sofixa 10mo ago
    Mexican cartels were branching out into the avocado trade, so why not.
    - zipy124 10mo ago
      Cartels, mafias and other criminal organisations have been involved in other industries for many generations now. Money laundering requires legitimate businesses and if that business happens to turn a profit. That's even better. Just look at the construction industry in new York or Italy many decades ago.
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
- stackskipton 10mo ago
  It is easier then smuggling drugs because US is not making it difficult to sidestep the sanctions. Hey, this random house in Delaware is buying a ton of GPUs, should we investigate? Nah, our donors don’t actually want Nvidia stock to go down so ignore it.
  - cj 10mo ago
    I don’t think the root problem is political corruption or donors. If anything, the hundreds of millions of dollars from AI lobbyists would overwhelmingly support anything that would prevent anyone outside of the US getting their hands on computer chips. The AI lobby in support of banning export of chips is way greater than anyone lobbying the opposite. > should we investigate? Nah, our donors […] The US government is a very slow moving bureaucracy. Slower to adapt than the slowest moving large public company. The GPU chip issue came about suddenly, out of the blue, and caught the government unprepared. When that happens, it typically takes government years to catch up and figure out how to adapt. Even in cases where incentives are aligned in favor of the government’s position, they still take forever to roll out meaningful change with effective enforcement - e.g. charging sales tax on software business, remember that Supreme Court case years ago? Or remember all the concern about engineer salaries being de-categorized as R&D? These are examples that are legally decided but gov is incredibly slow to enforce. The Wayfair supreme court case was back in 2018, right? Many years later, most SaaS companies are still getting away with not charging sales tax. Certain states are just now stating to enforce, 7 years later.
mcdow 10mo ago
This is tangential but the whole Tiananmen Square thing is kind of odd. When I visited China many people were more willing to discuss it than I had imagined. Some spoke about it unsolicited. It’s a tourist destination you have to buy tickets for. It’s rather subtle what can and cannot be discussed relating to it. Those I spoke to about it told me that most people have a good understanding of what happened, and many people speak negatively of the CCP. You just can’t do it if you have a major platform (e.g. you’re Jack Ma or you are an LLM). Not to discount how negative free speech restrictions are, but I’m not so sure how effective that particular propaganda campaign would be.
- whimsicalism 10mo ago
  A few things: In tourist areas they will feel comfortable talking about the protests/reprisal because they get inundated by American tourists wanting to ask them about it. "It’s a tourist destination you have to buy tickets for" -> Right, Tiananmen square has no stigma at all, but that is different from the 1989 incident. If you post about the 1989 incident on Weibo, it will absolutely get removed and you might get the local police visiting you -- depending on how much time they have on their hands and how incendiary your post was.
- SoftTalker 10mo ago
  > many people speak negatively of the CCP Probably true. Right up to the point where they attract a little too much attention, or annoy the wrong party official. Then all that they said becomes evidence of their crimes.

amarant 10mo ago

Imagine the correct answer being "what incident?"

kspacewalk2 10mo ago

I agree, except with the word "slightly". It can be so significant that this increased cost/friction is the very mechanism of the sanctions' effectiveness. Is it possible to police the Russian oil shadow fleet to extinction? Maybe, but even without doing so you can impose a decent haircut on their profits by issuing scary-sounding press releases and leaving it at that.

codedokode 10mo ago
Increased costs might be a factor in a competing commercial market, but for military purposes, you buy the components no matter the price or search for an alternative (China is now making lot of components - for example, resistors, transistors, logic chips - I have several 74HC chips of Chinese origin, and they are very cheap). Also, there are thousands ships and no legal basis for "policing" them in open sea.

littlecranky67 10mo ago

This. And it should be obvious. Drugs are banned and illegal in almost every country, yet they reach the US in vast amounts. Why would a ban on GPUs suddenly work - especially since owning a truckload of GPU is perfectly legal in most countries. Smuggling them to where the demand is, is probably easier than smuggling drugs.

deleted 10mo ago
[deleted]
codedokode 10mo ago
Maybe criminal cartels should switch to GPU trafficking?
- bad_haircut72 10mo ago
  By now most Mafias of the world are probably trying to train their own models
- sofixa 10mo ago
  Mexican cartels were branching out into the avocado trade, so why not.
  - zipy124 10mo ago
    Cartels, mafias and other criminal organisations have been involved in other industries for many generations now. Money laundering requires legitimate businesses and if that business happens to turn a profit. That's even better. Just look at the construction industry in new York or Italy many decades ago.
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
stackskipton 10mo ago
It is easier then smuggling drugs because US is not making it difficult to sidestep the sanctions. Hey, this random house in Delaware is buying a ton of GPUs, should we investigate? Nah, our donors don’t actually want Nvidia stock to go down so ignore it.
- cj 10mo ago
  I don’t think the root problem is political corruption or donors. If anything, the hundreds of millions of dollars from AI lobbyists would overwhelmingly support anything that would prevent anyone outside of the US getting their hands on computer chips. The AI lobby in support of banning export of chips is way greater than anyone lobbying the opposite. > should we investigate? Nah, our donors […] The US government is a very slow moving bureaucracy. Slower to adapt than the slowest moving large public company. The GPU chip issue came about suddenly, out of the blue, and caught the government unprepared. When that happens, it typically takes government years to catch up and figure out how to adapt. Even in cases where incentives are aligned in favor of the government’s position, they still take forever to roll out meaningful change with effective enforcement - e.g. charging sales tax on software business, remember that Supreme Court case years ago? Or remember all the concern about engineer salaries being de-categorized as R&D? These are examples that are legally decided but gov is incredibly slow to enforce. The Wayfair supreme court case was back in 2018, right? Many years later, most SaaS companies are still getting away with not charging sales tax. Certain states are just now stating to enforce, 7 years later.

mcdow 10mo ago

This is tangential but the whole Tiananmen Square thing is kind of odd. When I visited China many people were more willing to discuss it than I had imagined. Some spoke about it unsolicited. It’s a tourist destination you have to buy tickets for. It’s rather subtle what can and cannot be discussed relating to it. Those I spoke to about it told me that most people have a good understanding of what happened, and many people speak negatively of the CCP. You just can’t do it if you have a major platform (e.g. you’re Jack Ma or you are an LLM). Not to discount how negative free speech restrictions are, but I’m not so sure how effective that particular propaganda campaign would be.

whimsicalism 10mo ago
A few things: In tourist areas they will feel comfortable talking about the protests/reprisal because they get inundated by American tourists wanting to ask them about it. "It’s a tourist destination you have to buy tickets for" -> Right, Tiananmen square has no stigma at all, but that is different from the 1989 incident. If you post about the 1989 incident on Weibo, it will absolutely get removed and you might get the local police visiting you -- depending on how much time they have on their hands and how incendiary your post was.
SoftTalker 10mo ago
> many people speak negatively of the CCP Probably true. Right up to the point where they attract a little too much attention, or annoy the wrong party official. Then all that they said becomes evidence of their crimes.