6 ms·

Why isn't the field extremely competitive now? The demand has been strong for a decade and a half; it seems like a lot of time. (I'm not sure I have an explana

• plinkplonk 14y ago
  "Why isn't the field extremely competitive now? " Visas. Most programming work (of the type talked about in the OP) originates in the USA, and most companies, even startups, need employees to come in the door everyday. (not taking on the question of whether this is ideal or not, that is the just the way it is, right now) . Imagine (as a thought experiment) a scenario where a smart kid who lives in India or Ukraine or Africa is just able to get on a plane and land in SF for an interview or a job irrespective of whether he has the right degree, paperwork etc and without jumping through hoops at the consulate and rolling the dice. The (edit: thanks @daladd for correction) supply would go way up and hence average salary would go down (which is why large companies are trying for more H1 Bs - they like easier availability of devs and lower salaries) Or imagine the border with Mexico being completely officially open. See what happens to the dishwasher/fruit picker payment structure.
  • pyre 14y ago
    > The demand (and hence average salary) in SF for > programmers would go way down Wouldn't this be detrimental to the SF area, considering as the high cost of living? I realize that cost of living will probably lower to meet what people can afford, but not without growing (or shrinking) pains, I imagine.
    • eru 14y ago
      The effects on the cost of living would be harder to predict, I believe. Because even if you have less wealthy individuals, if they are more of them, they will still drive prices up. Perhps, for say land or houses, people will still pay the same price or more per square meter. But they will get by with less area.
    • hindsightbias 14y ago
      Detrimental for whom? The changes to the cost of living are primarily a function of the now thousands of google and apple commuters. Not that that is stopping them from complaining when they wonder why moving up to a 2BR costs $4k/month now.
      • pyre 14y ago
        The growing pains associated with pay not meeting (or barely meeting) the cost of living.
  • veemjeem 14y ago
    That perspective is from someone who lives in the USA. If you live in China, programmers are as hot a commodity as they are in the USA, but it's hard to find good programmers. I know of several companies in China trying to hire developers in the USA because it's easier to source high quality talent than locally in Shanghai. Every time there is a tech meetup talk in shanghai, around 300 people show up, but only 20 of them know what they're talking about. Maybe computing isn't a field that chinese people study hard to become good at. The companies in the USA are competing with companies in China for essentially the same talent pool. It's a good time to be in software.
    • EwanG 14y ago
      I just have to ask, where do I contact these companies in China looking for US programmers, and is Mandarin a requirement? This sounds a bit like the offers to make a good living teaching English overseas, where the reality is a bit different.
      • veemjeem 14y ago
        Surprisingly, they source them here by visiting the States and finding people the same way Zynga & Google would. I was recently recruited for a project for a startup in Shanghai recently -- the most complicated part is the compensation part as most USA based services don't accept payments from China, including Google Wallet. And no, mandarin isn't a requirement. I'm not really teaching english like those stories from japanese blogs -- I'll be coding in coffeescript for my wages.
  • daladd 14y ago
    > The demand (and hence average salary) in SF for programmers would go way down I think you mean the supply would go way up, and thus the market-clearing salary for new hires would go way down. Also (all other things being equal) the number of programmers employed would go up as the equilibrium shifts to a lower-wage, higher-number-employed point on the demand curve.
    • plinkplonk 14y ago
      yes you are right. Thanks for the correction. fixed in the original.
  • guard-of-terra 14y ago
    All this would do is a short-term depression of SF programmer wages coupled to short-term surge in worldwide programmer wages. Because guess what, smart guy in Ukraine was already employed there and when he moves the next guy coming to fill the gap will either cost more or be less smart. Programmer talent is sparse worldwide, not just in the Valley.
    • randomdata 14y ago
      Programmer talent is sparse worldwide And yet, when I look around at the job postings in Canada, a job with requirements that go on endlessly tops out at about $80,000/year. Expect less if you are an average programmer. Such a low income, relative to what US-based companies are offering, doesn't really speak to a shortage in my mind. I admit, there could be some kind of survivorship bias here: I'm only seeing the lower-paying jobs because the good jobs are less likely to be hanging around on the job boards. But then if an $80,000/yr. job is failing to attract talent, should it even be considered a real position with respect to shortage counting? I could hire dozens of programmers if they would only do it for $10/hr., but I don't think it is fair to count those as unfilled positions or a shortage surrounding that. Nobody with talent is ever going to do it for that kind of pay.
      • veemjeem 14y ago
        I'm guessing the payment scales depend on the cost of living in your area. They pay more in Silicon Valley compared to Toronto because a 1500 sqft single family home in SV is around $1M.
        • yxhuvud 14y ago
          And then there are Stockholm where I paid about $300k for roughly 365 square feet a month ago or so...
        • typicalrunt 14y ago
          You'd be surprised at the house prices in Toronto or Vancouver (2 of the top tech cities in Canada). Yes, we're undergoing a housing bubble here, but $1M is the average price of a detached home in Vancouver...and that's for a 50+ year old hunk of junk (or 'crack shack' as we call it here). One of the reasons that the housing bubble is starting to pop in Canada is that the incomes can no longer support the housing prices. We tend to have lower incomes than the US, but our houses are more expensive, cost of living is here, higher taxes, goods are more expensive, etc etc. I wonder if SV incomes are higher simply because people expect them to be higher, or maybe there are more fundamentals to it.
  • brendonjohn 14y ago
    "Visas." I live on a small island in a small city and I wont be short of work for the next 20 years. Developers/programmers are hard to find. Finding good ones that pass the interview process are even harder.
• rsaarelm 14y ago
  There's definitely more you could do with education. A lot of professional programmers are people who started doing programming as a hobby as kids. Attempting to teach programming to 20-year-olds entering an university seems to not work terribly well, while the basics can be picked by a 10-year old. If you waited until people are 20 to start teaching them to read and write, you would probably also get poor results, while the weird kids who learned to read for fun when they were 12 would end up outperforming the regular students when they grew up.
  • jeremyjh 14y ago
    This is a very interesting idea. It certainly seems plausible, I wonder if anyone has studied it.
  • suby 14y ago
    On the other side of the coin, people who picked up programming as a hobby while they were 10 might have picked up some rather nasty habits that need to be unlearned, where as someone who is learning in school at age 20 won't have those problems.
    • eru 14y ago
      Depends on the schooling, too.
• guard-of-terra 14y ago
  Programmer is like the modern villager. Villagers grew food and made stuff and that's what you ever needed. The programmer writes code and everything in our civilization is already code or it will be. Therefore, programmer is a much broader occupation than almost any other. It's still a seller's marker because of that. Look at everything around you, and while there is at least one item that doesn't execute code inside, we haven't hit peak coder yet.
  • dmorgan 14y ago
    >Programmer is like the modern villager. Villagers grew food and made stuff and that's what you ever needed. The programmer writes code and everything in our civilization is already code or it will be. That's an extremely short-sighted way to look at it. In fact, take out the non-programmers, and all programming will collapse -- literally come to a halt. You know, guys like those that grow and transport out food, clean up the streets and the garbage, cook our meals, mine our coal, produce our energy, drill our petrol, build our houses, etc etc. People seem to think that because he have the "information superhighway" (sic) we're, say, above actual highways. Where the fact is that without truckers and highways and oil and the like, the "information superhighway" will collapse in a few days. In fact, you can take programming out of the picture, and the whole world will keep on turning, at least as well as it did in the sixties or fifties. The reverse, not so much. Programming is indeed a pervasive but insignificant in the grand scheme of things addition to the workings of our society.
    • guard-of-terra 14y ago
      There would be computerized food transport, real world garbage collectors, pizza machines, miner droids and 3D plotters handling bricks for building. There is no reason you can't replace most of those human tasks with machines. And while we gradually do that, we'll need more and more programmers. Or maybe we will fail horribly, but not because it could not be done; and somebody will do this a few centuries later.
      • dmorgan 14y ago
• speleding 14y ago
  People smart enough to be programmers have more options than being a programmer. Most of the people in my CS class ended up as managers, 15 years after graduation.