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> Does that leave India as the only alternative? > Because it doesn’t appear to me that European leaders or its citizens are very friendly towards them either

> Does that leave India as the only alternative? > Because it doesn’t appear to me that European leaders or its citizens are very friendly towards them either There's a reason the EU is finalizing an FTA with India [0], with the backing of France, Italy, Germany, Denmark, and others. India also has a multiple veto in the EU now thanks to France, Greece [1], and Cyprus [2]. India is also heavily investing in France's MIC leading to Safran [3], Thales [4], and Dassault [5] transferring IP to Indian SoEs and setting up shop in India. But this inevitably gives India an indirect veto position like China and the US, because of India's hard anti-Turkiye stance aligns with Greece and Cyprus' national security needs (ambivalent/indifferent about Russia but antagonistic to Turkiye) and subsidizes a large portion of France's industrial base. Essentially, it allows India to use pressure on Greece and Cyprus to influence the EU the same way China uses pressure on Spain and Hungary to influence the EU, and the US uses the CEE and Ireland. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-eu-trade-talks-enter-crucial-phase-aiming-seal-deal-by-year-end-2025-09-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-eu-trade-talks-ent... [1] - https://www.eliamep.gr/en/syndeontas-efkairies-o-stratigikos-rolos-tis-elladas-ston-oikonomiko-diadromo-indias-mesis-anatolis-evropis-imec/ https://www.eliamep.gr/en/syndeontas-efkairies-o-stratigikos... [2] - https://m.kathimerini.com.cy/gr/politiki/ptb-endeixi-dynamikis-kyproy-indias-i-episimi-episkepsi-sti-xwra https://m.kathimerini.com.cy/gr/politiki/ptb-endeixi-dynamik... [3] - https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/safran-india-fighter-jet-engine-amca/ https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/safran-india-fighter-je... [4] - https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/news-centre/press-releases/thales-and-bharat-dynamics-ltd-agree-initial-supply-man-portable-air https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/news-centre/press-releases/th... [5] - https://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/group/press/press-kits/dassault-aviation-partners-with-tata-advanced-systems-to-manufacture-rafale-fighter-aircraft-fuselage-for-india-and-other-global-markets/ https://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/group/press/press-kits/...

SilverElfin 11mo ago
I’m not an expert on India-Europe relations, but online I’ve seen a lot of hateful talk towards them from content creators and politicians. I don’t know if that is a misrepresentation but I’ve got the sense that there is hostility. Some of this is cultural animosity but I think it’s also economic - like around having to compete on labor costs. Is it really viable for European politicians to partner with India in that environment? And will India go for it or will they distrust Europe? I think the same question could be asked for Southeast Asian countries too but they’re smaller and maybe are less of a focus in geopolitics.
- alephnerd 11mo ago
  > I’ve seen a lot of hateful talk towards them from content creators and politicians. I don’t know if that is a misrepresentation but I’ve got the sense that there is hostility... > Is it really viable for European politicians to partner with India in that environment? And will India go for it or will they distrust Europe? It doesn't matter. The decisions that matter to India can be forced through the European Council, and even in those countries with nativist sentiments like Croatia [0], Greece, Cyprus and Italy [1], India increasingly uses it's monetary power to extract the deals it wants - especially because China has decided to increasingly consolidate it's investments in Hungary and Spain instead and OBOR funding in much of Europe has been scaled down [2][3] so the only large economy left that can help. On top of that, European countries like France are using India as a backdoor for continuing business operations on dual use technology like Safran-UAC's SJ-100 commercial jet project [4]. Essentially, those politically unpopular decisions that require public consent go through the European Council, and everything else is done via business and state-level engagements. It's the same model China used in the late 2000s and early 2010s when it was at the stage that India is at today. > I think the same question could be asked for Southeast Asian countries too but they’re smaller and maybe are less of a focus in geopolitics ASEAN nations like Vietnam already have FTAs with the EU [5] and are conducting influence ops within Europe with impunity [6] This is why I made an earlier comparison to the EU with the Qing and Mughal Empires - both federal empires collapsed because individual European states made deals with those empires subnational units, which undermined both empires. [0] - https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-06-26/modi-visits-zagreb-croatias-dreams-a-mediterranean-hub https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-06-26/mod... [1] - https://orionpolicy.org/imec-and-the-battle-for-connectivity-why-trieste-matters/ https://orionpolicy.org/imec-and-the-battle-for-connectivity... [2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67634959 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67634959 [3] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/greeces-policy-on-china-debt-era-deals-and-recalibration/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/re... [4] - https://idrw.org/original-sam146-engine-likely-to-power-indian-superjet-100-variant/ https://idrw.org/original-sam146-engine-likely-to-power-indi... [5] - https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/viet-nam/eu-viet-nam-agreements_en https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-cou... [6] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/berlin-kidnapping-accusation-hangs-over-rise-of-vietnam-enforcer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/berlin-ki...

SilverElfin 11mo ago

I’m not an expert on India-Europe relations, but online I’ve seen a lot of hateful talk towards them from content creators and politicians. I don’t know if that is a misrepresentation but I’ve got the sense that there is hostility. Some of this is cultural animosity but I think it’s also economic - like around having to compete on labor costs. Is it really viable for European politicians to partner with India in that environment? And will India go for it or will they distrust Europe? I think the same question could be asked for Southeast Asian countries too but they’re smaller and maybe are less of a focus in geopolitics.

alephnerd 11mo ago
> I’ve seen a lot of hateful talk towards them from content creators and politicians. I don’t know if that is a misrepresentation but I’ve got the sense that there is hostility... > Is it really viable for European politicians to partner with India in that environment? And will India go for it or will they distrust Europe? It doesn't matter. The decisions that matter to India can be forced through the European Council, and even in those countries with nativist sentiments like Croatia [0], Greece, Cyprus and Italy [1], India increasingly uses it's monetary power to extract the deals it wants - especially because China has decided to increasingly consolidate it's investments in Hungary and Spain instead and OBOR funding in much of Europe has been scaled down [2][3] so the only large economy left that can help. On top of that, European countries like France are using India as a backdoor for continuing business operations on dual use technology like Safran-UAC's SJ-100 commercial jet project [4]. Essentially, those politically unpopular decisions that require public consent go through the European Council, and everything else is done via business and state-level engagements. It's the same model China used in the late 2000s and early 2010s when it was at the stage that India is at today. > I think the same question could be asked for Southeast Asian countries too but they’re smaller and maybe are less of a focus in geopolitics ASEAN nations like Vietnam already have FTAs with the EU [5] and are conducting influence ops within Europe with impunity [6] This is why I made an earlier comparison to the EU with the Qing and Mughal Empires - both federal empires collapsed because individual European states made deals with those empires subnational units, which undermined both empires. [0] - https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-06-26/modi-visits-zagreb-croatias-dreams-a-mediterranean-hub https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-06-26/mod... [1] - https://orionpolicy.org/imec-and-the-battle-for-connectivity-why-trieste-matters/ https://orionpolicy.org/imec-and-the-battle-for-connectivity... [2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67634959 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67634959 [3] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/greeces-policy-on-china-debt-era-deals-and-recalibration/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/re... [4] - https://idrw.org/original-sam146-engine-likely-to-power-indian-superjet-100-variant/ https://idrw.org/original-sam146-engine-likely-to-power-indi... [5] - https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/viet-nam/eu-viet-nam-agreements_en https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-cou... [6] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/berlin-kidnapping-accusation-hangs-over-rise-of-vietnam-enforcer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/berlin-ki...