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I don't doubt the increase in efficiency. I doubt the "drastically". We already see models become more and more capable per weight and per unit of compute. I d

I don't doubt the increase in efficiency. I doubt the "drastically". We already see models become more and more capable per weight and per unit of compute. I don't expect a state-change breakthrough. I expect: more of the same. A SOTA 30B model from 2026 is going to be ~30% better than one from 2025. Now, expecting that to hurt Nvidia? Delusional. No one is going to stop and say "oh wow, we got more inference efficiency - now we're going to use less compute". A lot of people are going to say "now we can use larger and more powerful models for the same price" or "with cheaper inference for the same quality, we can afford to use more inference".

colechristensen 11mo ago
Eh. Right now, Claude is good enough. If LLM development hit a magical wall and never got any better, Claude is good enough to be terrifically useful and there's diminishing returns on how much good we get out of it being at $benchmark. Saying we're satisfied with that... well how many years until efficiency gains from one side and consumer hardware from the other meet in the middle so "good enough for everybody" open models are available for anyone who wants to pay for a $4000 MacBook (and after another couple of years a $1000 MacBook, and several more and a fancy wristwatch). Point being, unless we get to a point where we start developing "models" that deserve civil rights and citizenship, the years are numbered to where we NEED cloud infrastructure and datacenters full of racks and racks of $x0,000 hardware. I strongly believe the top end of the S curve is nigh, and with it we're going to see these trillion dollar ambitions crumble. Everybody is going to want a big-ass GPU and a ton of RAM but that's going to quickly become boring because open models are going to exist that eat everybody's lunch and the trillion dollar companies trying to beat them with a premium product aren't going to stack up outside of niche cases and much more ordinary cloud compute motivations.
- ACCount37 11mo ago
  Good enough? There's no such thing. People said that "good enough" about GPT-4. Now you say that about Claude Opus 4.5. How long before the treadmill turns, and the very same Opus 4.5 becomes "the bare minimum" - the least capable AI you would actually consider using for simple and unimportant tasks? We have miles and miles of AI advancements ahead of us. The end of that road isn't "good enough". It's "too powerful to be survivable".
  - cyanydeez 11mo ago
    Elon will boil the oceans if it means not having to deal with poor people.
    - cindyllm 11mo ago
      [dead]
  - colechristensen 11mo ago
    I can build fully functional applications without writing a single line of code with Claude. In my free time. On a weekend. I'm going to release one of them pretty soon. A toddler being able to do this instead of an industry veteran isn't that compelling. Avoiding the few pitfalls of the LLM getting stuck and taking a while to get out isn't that valuable. >Good enough? There's no such thing. This is just wrong. Maybe you can't imagine good enough, I can. And I think "better" is going to start getting diminishing returns as the velocity of improvements I expect to slow and the value of improvements are going to become less meaningful. The "cost" of a LLM making mistakes is already pretty low, cutting it in half is better, sure, but it's so low already I don't particularly care if it gets some multiple more rare.
    - grogers 11mo ago
      LLM only fairly recently underwent a step change from "maybe someday" to actually useful now. That opened many new doors that people didn't even think were possible. Getting incrementally better at something they are already pretty good at isn't that impressive. But getting drastically better at something they are currently bad at, will drive new models and new research.
  - YouAreWRONGtoo 11mo ago
    [dead]
- buu700 11mo ago
  Coding capability in and of itself may be "good enough" or close to it, but there's a long way to go before AI can build and operate a product end-to-end. In fairness, a lot of the gap may be tooling. But the end state in my mind is telling an AI "build me XYZ", having it ask all the important questions over the course of a 30-minute chat while making reasonable decisions on all lower-level issues, then waking up the next morning to a live cloud-hosted test environment at a subdomain of the domain it said it would buy along with test builds of native apps for Android, iOS, Linux, macOS, and Windows, all with near-100% automated test coverage and passing tests. Coding agents feel like magic, but we're clearly not there yet. And that's just coding. If someone wanted to generate a high-quality custom feature-length movie within the usage limits of a $20/mo AI plan, they'd be sorely disappointed.
  - colechristensen 11mo ago
    >But the end state in my mind is telling an AI "build me XYZ", having it ask all the important questions over the course of a 30-minute chat while making reasonable decisions on all lower-level issues, then waking up the next morning to a live cloud-hosted test environment at a subdomain of the domain it said it would buy along with test builds of native apps for Android, iOS, Linux, macOS, and Windows, all with near-100% automated test coverage and passing tests. Coding agents feel like magic, but we're clearly not there yet. I'm pretty sure we're there. I'm not sure how interested I am in completely closing that loop and completely removing the human from the loop. But I'm also pretty confident that I could do it with nothing but existing models and software built around them.
    - buu700 11mo ago
      I'm not aware that we are there, but would be very interested if you have information to the contrary. Even if we were there, the product/service that does it would have to be at a reasonable cost in order to be useful for most people. As I said, a lot of the gap may be tooling. But I'm skeptical that even the models themselves are capable of that given sufficiently advanced tooling. I'm not saying we're not close (certainly much closer than we were at the start of the decade), but if we were actually there, you would have zero reservations about removing the human from the loop of an initial prototype.

colechristensen 11mo ago

Eh. Right now, Claude is good enough. If LLM development hit a magical wall and never got any better, Claude is good enough to be terrifically useful and there's diminishing returns on how much good we get out of it being at $benchmark. Saying we're satisfied with that... well how many years until efficiency gains from one side and consumer hardware from the other meet in the middle so "good enough for everybody" open models are available for anyone who wants to pay for a $4000 MacBook (and after another couple of years a $1000 MacBook, and several more and a fancy wristwatch). Point being, unless we get to a point where we start developing "models" that deserve civil rights and citizenship, the years are numbered to where we NEED cloud infrastructure and datacenters full of racks and racks of $x0,000 hardware. I strongly believe the top end of the S curve is nigh, and with it we're going to see these trillion dollar ambitions crumble. Everybody is going to want a big-ass GPU and a ton of RAM but that's going to quickly become boring because open models are going to exist that eat everybody's lunch and the trillion dollar companies trying to beat them with a premium product aren't going to stack up outside of niche cases and much more ordinary cloud compute motivations.

ACCount37 11mo ago
Good enough? There's no such thing. People said that "good enough" about GPT-4. Now you say that about Claude Opus 4.5. How long before the treadmill turns, and the very same Opus 4.5 becomes "the bare minimum" - the least capable AI you would actually consider using for simple and unimportant tasks? We have miles and miles of AI advancements ahead of us. The end of that road isn't "good enough". It's "too powerful to be survivable".
- cyanydeez 11mo ago
  Elon will boil the oceans if it means not having to deal with poor people.
  - cindyllm 11mo ago
    [dead]
- colechristensen 11mo ago
  I can build fully functional applications without writing a single line of code with Claude. In my free time. On a weekend. I'm going to release one of them pretty soon. A toddler being able to do this instead of an industry veteran isn't that compelling. Avoiding the few pitfalls of the LLM getting stuck and taking a while to get out isn't that valuable. >Good enough? There's no such thing. This is just wrong. Maybe you can't imagine good enough, I can. And I think "better" is going to start getting diminishing returns as the velocity of improvements I expect to slow and the value of improvements are going to become less meaningful. The "cost" of a LLM making mistakes is already pretty low, cutting it in half is better, sure, but it's so low already I don't particularly care if it gets some multiple more rare.
  - grogers 11mo ago
    LLM only fairly recently underwent a step change from "maybe someday" to actually useful now. That opened many new doors that people didn't even think were possible. Getting incrementally better at something they are already pretty good at isn't that impressive. But getting drastically better at something they are currently bad at, will drive new models and new research.
- YouAreWRONGtoo 11mo ago
  [dead]
buu700 11mo ago
Coding capability in and of itself may be "good enough" or close to it, but there's a long way to go before AI can build and operate a product end-to-end. In fairness, a lot of the gap may be tooling. But the end state in my mind is telling an AI "build me XYZ", having it ask all the important questions over the course of a 30-minute chat while making reasonable decisions on all lower-level issues, then waking up the next morning to a live cloud-hosted test environment at a subdomain of the domain it said it would buy along with test builds of native apps for Android, iOS, Linux, macOS, and Windows, all with near-100% automated test coverage and passing tests. Coding agents feel like magic, but we're clearly not there yet. And that's just coding. If someone wanted to generate a high-quality custom feature-length movie within the usage limits of a $20/mo AI plan, they'd be sorely disappointed.
- colechristensen 11mo ago
  >But the end state in my mind is telling an AI "build me XYZ", having it ask all the important questions over the course of a 30-minute chat while making reasonable decisions on all lower-level issues, then waking up the next morning to a live cloud-hosted test environment at a subdomain of the domain it said it would buy along with test builds of native apps for Android, iOS, Linux, macOS, and Windows, all with near-100% automated test coverage and passing tests. Coding agents feel like magic, but we're clearly not there yet. I'm pretty sure we're there. I'm not sure how interested I am in completely closing that loop and completely removing the human from the loop. But I'm also pretty confident that I could do it with nothing but existing models and software built around them.
  - buu700 11mo ago
    I'm not aware that we are there, but would be very interested if you have information to the contrary. Even if we were there, the product/service that does it would have to be at a reasonable cost in order to be useful for most people. As I said, a lot of the gap may be tooling. But I'm skeptical that even the models themselves are capable of that given sufficiently advanced tooling. I'm not saying we're not close (certainly much closer than we were at the start of the decade), but if we were actually there, you would have zero reservations about removing the human from the loop of an initial prototype.