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> The EU will continue backing Ukraine How? Ukraine uses American intel for targeting, a significant amount of American munitions either bought directly from t

> The EU will continue backing Ukraine How? Ukraine uses American intel for targeting, a significant amount of American munitions either bought directly from the US or indirectly by member states, and more critically, we in the US can force Ukraine to the table by preventing access to these systems. > but exploration of Russian assets is quite probable (opposition isn't massive... How? Belgium has vetoed expropriating Russian assets [0] because the ECB rejected providing a backstop. And Hungary has vetoed the utilization of Eurobonds [1] If EU member states cannot expropriate Russian assets nor provide boots on the ground in Ukraine nor provide munitions and intel to replace American offerings in the next 1 year, what else is there that the EU can do? On top of that, we've given the 2027 deadline for NATO, so now what should the EU prioritize? > That lineage's next up is the GCAP 6th gen plane Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian. And that's my point. No EU joint defense project succeeds because inevitably individual states in the EU protect their champions > The US is not a reliable trade or anything partner, and there's no going back on that. Yep. And who else is there? The Chinese gave the exact same ultimatum as the US to European leadership, and so are the Indians as part of the FTA negotiation. And we can always put the squeeze on Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and LVMH and make both Germany and France squeal [2] and blunt any regulations coming out of the EU as a result - just like the China [3] and India [4]. > are world leaders in their respective fields They absolutely are in R&D and IP, but their production will not scale out until 2029-35, at which point it would be too late. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/belgium-rejects-eu-proposal-to-tap-russian-funds-for-ukraine-aid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/belgium-r... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-shoots-down-eurobonds-alternative-eu-commission-russian-asset-plan/ https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-shoots-down-eurobond... [2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/eu-fight-against-trump-s-tariffs-is-blunted-by-corporate-lobbying https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/eu-fight-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-eu-trade-spats-next-swipe-may-hit-lvmh-2024-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-eu-trade-spats-n... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-india-unit-faces-14-billion-tax-evasion-notice-2024-11-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...

sofixa 11mo ago
> Ukraine uses American intel for targeting They have been cut off already. But if you think that Ukraine was flying blind until now if not for US targeting, I don't know what to tell you. > Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian No, Leonardo is Italian with significant presence in the UK. But in any case the British component is provided by BAE Systems (which also heavily participate in F-35). And yes, it's not an EU project, it's a project in which European countries and companies are taking part. Does that change anything? > Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian. And that's my point > No EU joint defense project succeeds because inevitably individual states in the EU protect their champions Do I need to list the big successes again? This is categorically not true. > How? Belgium has vetoed expropriating Russian assets [0] because the ECB rejected providing a backstop. And Hungary has vetoed the utilization of Eurobonds [1] Belgium can be convinced potentially, and with any luck Orban would be heading to prison next year, so Hungary wouldn't be vetoing Eurobonds. > The Chinese gave the exact same ultimatum as the US to European leadership, and so are the Indians as part of the FTA negotiation. What ultimatum? To drop DSA? Source? > They absolutely are in R&D and IP, but their production will not scale out until 2029-35, at which point it would be too late. Production of what? This is so industry and company specific that I struggle taking you seriously just throwing random years like that for everything. And in any case one the major weapon of the war is drones, for which manufacturing is mostly local in Ukraine. There are a million other things that go into a war machine, but pretending that the second US cuts supplies Ukraine has to surrender is disingenuous.
- alephnerd 11mo ago
  > Belgium can be convinced potentially They cannot. The Belgian government has categorically rejected expropriation 3 days ago because the ECB rejected providing any funding, and Euroclear has announced it will fight the EU in Belgian court if any steps are taken to do so [2] with Belgian govenenent backing [4], so those funds would anyhow be frozen for years. You aren't even reading any of my citations. > Orban would be heading to prison next year, so Hungary wouldn't be vetoing Eurobonds We still have Slovakia [3]. > What ultimatum? To drop DSA? Source Over other regulations like CBAM [0]. The same way the US is playing hard ball over the DSA, China+India are playing hard ball over CBAM. > Leonardo is Italian with significant presence in the UK Yep, and as a result needs to continue to follow UK specific regulations and export controls [1], but being a single overarching conglomerate makes it significantly easier to manage the GCAP project, versus FCAS which became a Renault-Airbus spat which turned into a France-Germany spat. > but pretending that the second US cuts supplies Ukraine has to surrender is disingenuous. EU leadership has admitted this fact [5] and even best case projections [6] show it is a Herculean task in the next 1 year. [0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade/india-and-china-make-trade-a-climate-issue-as-eu-carbon-levy-looms https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade/india-and-china-make-t... [1] - https://www.leonardo.com/en/suppliers/supplier-portal/helicopters/trade-compliance https://www.leonardo.com/en/suppliers/supplier-portal/helico... [2] - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/11/15/euroclear-the-belgian-institution-managing-frozen-russian-assets-that-will-not-rule-out-suing-the-eu_6747484_19.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/11/15/eurocle... [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-08/slovakia-opposes-using-frozen-russian-assets-to-support-ukraine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-08/slovakia-... [4] - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/06/belgium-resists-unfreezing-russian-assets-held-in-brussels_6748200_4.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/06/b... [5] - https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/kaja-kallas-interview-trump-ukraine-war-00581253 https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/kaja-kallas-intervi... [6] - https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us...

sofixa 11mo ago

> Ukraine uses American intel for targeting They have been cut off already. But if you think that Ukraine was flying blind until now if not for US targeting, I don't know what to tell you. > Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian No, Leonardo is Italian with significant presence in the UK. But in any case the British component is provided by BAE Systems (which also heavily participate in F-35). And yes, it's not an EU project, it's a project in which European countries and companies are taking part. Does that change anything? > Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian. And that's my point > No EU joint defense project succeeds because inevitably individual states in the EU protect their champions Do I need to list the big successes again? This is categorically not true. > How? Belgium has vetoed expropriating Russian assets [0] because the ECB rejected providing a backstop. And Hungary has vetoed the utilization of Eurobonds [1] Belgium can be convinced potentially, and with any luck Orban would be heading to prison next year, so Hungary wouldn't be vetoing Eurobonds. > The Chinese gave the exact same ultimatum as the US to European leadership, and so are the Indians as part of the FTA negotiation. What ultimatum? To drop DSA? Source? > They absolutely are in R&D and IP, but their production will not scale out until 2029-35, at which point it would be too late. Production of what? This is so industry and company specific that I struggle taking you seriously just throwing random years like that for everything. And in any case one the major weapon of the war is drones, for which manufacturing is mostly local in Ukraine. There are a million other things that go into a war machine, but pretending that the second US cuts supplies Ukraine has to surrender is disingenuous.

alephnerd 11mo ago
> Belgium can be convinced potentially They cannot. The Belgian government has categorically rejected expropriation 3 days ago because the ECB rejected providing any funding, and Euroclear has announced it will fight the EU in Belgian court if any steps are taken to do so [2] with Belgian govenenent backing [4], so those funds would anyhow be frozen for years. You aren't even reading any of my citations. > Orban would be heading to prison next year, so Hungary wouldn't be vetoing Eurobonds We still have Slovakia [3]. > What ultimatum? To drop DSA? Source Over other regulations like CBAM [0]. The same way the US is playing hard ball over the DSA, China+India are playing hard ball over CBAM. > Leonardo is Italian with significant presence in the UK Yep, and as a result needs to continue to follow UK specific regulations and export controls [1], but being a single overarching conglomerate makes it significantly easier to manage the GCAP project, versus FCAS which became a Renault-Airbus spat which turned into a France-Germany spat. > but pretending that the second US cuts supplies Ukraine has to surrender is disingenuous. EU leadership has admitted this fact [5] and even best case projections [6] show it is a Herculean task in the next 1 year. [0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade/india-and-china-make-trade-a-climate-issue-as-eu-carbon-levy-looms https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade/india-and-china-make-t... [1] - https://www.leonardo.com/en/suppliers/supplier-portal/helicopters/trade-compliance https://www.leonardo.com/en/suppliers/supplier-portal/helico... [2] - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/11/15/euroclear-the-belgian-institution-managing-frozen-russian-assets-that-will-not-rule-out-suing-the-eu_6747484_19.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/11/15/eurocle... [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-08/slovakia-opposes-using-frozen-russian-assets-to-support-ukraine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-08/slovakia-... [4] - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/06/belgium-resists-unfreezing-russian-assets-held-in-brussels_6748200_4.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/06/b... [5] - https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/kaja-kallas-interview-trump-ukraine-war-00581253 https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/kaja-kallas-intervi... [6] - https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us...