3 ms·

You're still not explaining how the DSA is supposedly a negotiating tactic from the EU any more than you could say that about GDPR. It's a new legal framewo tac

by sofixa 11mo ago

You're still not explaining how the DSA is supposedly a negotiating tactic from the EU any more than you could say that about GDPR. It's a new legal framewo tackling a relatively new set of problems. If any of them get watered down because of deals with the US, then you could make that sort of claim. > Anyhow, we've unofficially signalled we are leaving the responsibility of Europe's defenses to Europe by 2027 [6] - meaning member states have no choice but to end up buying American gear or completely vacillate to Russia on Ukraine. Or just buying from the existing European providers? Most American gear has a (sometimes better, cf. all the stuff even the US buys from European companies) European based equivalent. The only major exception is the F-35, but at least one 6th gen European jet is in the works, and unless fighting with the US, an 5th gen stealth fighter isn't really that needed. European manufacturers need to increase output, and they have been working on it and have done so quite a lot already.

alephnerd 11mo ago
> Or just buying from the existing European providers? Most American gear has a (sometimes better, cf. all the stuff even the US buys from European companies) European based equivalent. That might happen over the long term (I still have doubts given that whenever a joint EU project is formed between two countries with vendors, they inevitabely end up collapsing due to domestic political considerations such as the European MBT and FCAS - no leader wants to be the leader who shut down a factory with 1200 high paying unionized jobs for the greater good), but cannot happen in the 1 year timeframe given. The reality is, if we the US make a deal with Russia over the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next 12 months, the EU will have no choice but to accept it if you do not put boots on the ground and if you do not expropriate Russian government assets in the EU. But your leadership class has rejected [2] both [3]. > European manufacturers need to increase output, and they have been working on it and have done so quite a lot already. Not enough for the 1 year time frame needed > how the DSA is supposedly a negotiating tactic from the EU any more than you could say that about GDPR We view the DSA as a non-tariff barrier to American services companies. This is both a Trump admin view [0] as well as a Biden-era admin view [1]. We held similarly negative views about the GDPR until Ireland, Czechia, Poland, and Luxembourg accommodated us by hiring our lobbyists as their commissioners. And this is why every single pan-EU project fails - every major country like the US (previously listed) and China [4][5] cultivated economic and political ties with members that act as vetos in decisions that have a unanimity requirements. This is why I gave the comparison to the Qing and Mughal Empire - the English, French, and other European nations broke both empires by leveraging one-sided economic deals with subnational units (eg. the Bengal Subah in the Mughal Empire and the unequal treaties in the Qing Empire), which slowly gnawed away at unity. We in the US, China, Russia, India, and others are starting to do the same to you - not out of explicit strategy, but due to the return of multipolarity and most European state's failure to recover from the Eurozone crisis. [0] - https://www.ft.com/content/3f67b6ca-7259-4612-8e51-12b497128552 https://www.ft.com/content/3f67b6ca-7259-4612-8e51-12b497128... [1] - https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/-wyden-and-crapo-call-on-biden-administration-to-fight-eu-digital-trade-policies-that-discriminate-against-us-workers-and-employers https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/-wyden-and-cra... [2] - https://tvn24.pl/polska/szczyt-w-paryzu-donald-tusk-przed-wylotem-nie-przewidujemy-wyslania-zolnierzy-do-ukrainy-st8309570 https://tvn24.pl/polska/szczyt-w-paryzu-donald-tusk-przed-wy... [3] - https://www.ft.com/content/616c79ee-34de-425a-865e-e94ba10be788 https://www.ft.com/content/616c79ee-34de-425a-865e-e94ba10be... [4] - http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm [5] - https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83c6d0868f4e8e6eb0.html https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83...
- sofixa 11mo ago
  > whenever a joint EU project is formed between two countries with vendors, they inevitabely end up collapsing due to domestic political considerations such as the European MBT and FCAS - no leader wants to be the leader who shut down a factory with 1200 high paying unionized jobs for the greater good Eurofighter Typhoon and before that the Panavia Tornado. That lineage's next up is the GCAP 6th gen plane. Horizon/Orizonte and after that the FREMM (which is so good even the US are buying it). In general Italian/French naval cooperation is very strong. The whole of MBDA and hell even Airbus were created for inter-country cooperation. There are plenty of successful examples on which to build on, as well as failures from which to learn. But again, today very few military things cannot be sourced from a European supplier. BAE, Leonardo, Dassault, Thales, Rheinmetall, KNDS, Saab, Fincantieri, Naval Group, Indra, Airbus, MBDA etc. are world leaders in their respective fields. > The reality is, if we the US make a deal with Russia over the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next 12 months, the EU will have no choice but to accept it if you do not put boots on the ground and if you do not expropriate Russian government assets in the EU No? US can sign whatever bootlicking deal it wants with Russia, but it's up to Ukraine what happens actually. The EU will continue backing Ukraine. Boots on the ground are highly unlikely, but exploration of Russian assets is quite probable (opposition isn't massive, and as time goes on, will only whither). > We view the DSA as a non-tariff barrier to American services companies. This is both a Trump admin view [0] as well as a Biden-era admin view [1]. Cool, nobody cares. The US has put in sufficient actual tariffs that it cannot scream "unfair". EU leaders will try to negotiate whatever they can to lower short term economic damage, but the long term damage is done. The US is not a reliable trade or anything partner, and there's no going back on that. Regarding your Mughal and Qing comparisons... Damn, where do I even start? EU isn't a country, so the comparison is off from the start.
  - alephnerd 11mo ago
    > The EU will continue backing Ukraine How? Ukraine uses American intel for targeting, a significant amount of American munitions either bought directly from the US or indirectly by member states, and more critically, we in the US can force Ukraine to the table by preventing access to these systems. > but exploration of Russian assets is quite probable (opposition isn't massive... How? Belgium has vetoed expropriating Russian assets [0] because the ECB rejected providing a backstop. And Hungary has vetoed the utilization of Eurobonds [1] If EU member states cannot expropriate Russian assets nor provide boots on the ground in Ukraine nor provide munitions and intel to replace American offerings in the next 1 year, what else is there that the EU can do? On top of that, we've given the 2027 deadline for NATO, so now what should the EU prioritize? > That lineage's next up is the GCAP 6th gen plane Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian. And that's my point. No EU joint defense project succeeds because inevitably individual states in the EU protect their champions > The US is not a reliable trade or anything partner, and there's no going back on that. Yep. And who else is there? The Chinese gave the exact same ultimatum as the US to European leadership, and so are the Indians as part of the FTA negotiation. And we can always put the squeeze on Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and LVMH and make both Germany and France squeal [2] and blunt any regulations coming out of the EU as a result - just like the China [3] and India [4]. > are world leaders in their respective fields They absolutely are in R&D and IP, but their production will not scale out until 2029-35, at which point it would be too late. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/belgium-rejects-eu-proposal-to-tap-russian-funds-for-ukraine-aid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/belgium-r... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-shoots-down-eurobonds-alternative-eu-commission-russian-asset-plan/ https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-shoots-down-eurobond... [2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/eu-fight-against-trump-s-tariffs-is-blunted-by-corporate-lobbying https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/eu-fight-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-eu-trade-spats-next-swipe-may-hit-lvmh-2024-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-eu-trade-spats-n... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-india-unit-faces-14-billion-tax-evasion-notice-2024-11-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...

by sofixa 11mo ago

alephnerd 11mo ago

> Or just buying from the existing European providers? Most American gear has a (sometimes better, cf. all the stuff even the US buys from European companies) European based equivalent. That might happen over the long term (I still have doubts given that whenever a joint EU project is formed between two countries with vendors, they inevitabely end up collapsing due to domestic political considerations such as the European MBT and FCAS - no leader wants to be the leader who shut down a factory with 1200 high paying unionized jobs for the greater good), but cannot happen in the 1 year timeframe given. The reality is, if we the US make a deal with Russia over the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next 12 months, the EU will have no choice but to accept it if you do not put boots on the ground and if you do not expropriate Russian government assets in the EU. But your leadership class has rejected [2] both [3]. > European manufacturers need to increase output, and they have been working on it and have done so quite a lot already. Not enough for the 1 year time frame needed > how the DSA is supposedly a negotiating tactic from the EU any more than you could say that about GDPR We view the DSA as a non-tariff barrier to American services companies. This is both a Trump admin view [0] as well as a Biden-era admin view [1]. We held similarly negative views about the GDPR until Ireland, Czechia, Poland, and Luxembourg accommodated us by hiring our lobbyists as their commissioners. And this is why every single pan-EU project fails - every major country like the US (previously listed) and China [4][5] cultivated economic and political ties with members that act as vetos in decisions that have a unanimity requirements. This is why I gave the comparison to the Qing and Mughal Empire - the English, French, and other European nations broke both empires by leveraging one-sided economic deals with subnational units (eg. the Bengal Subah in the Mughal Empire and the unequal treaties in the Qing Empire), which slowly gnawed away at unity. We in the US, China, Russia, India, and others are starting to do the same to you - not out of explicit strategy, but due to the return of multipolarity and most European state's failure to recover from the Eurozone crisis. [0] - https://www.ft.com/content/3f67b6ca-7259-4612-8e51-12b497128552 https://www.ft.com/content/3f67b6ca-7259-4612-8e51-12b497128... [1] - https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/-wyden-and-crapo-call-on-biden-administration-to-fight-eu-digital-trade-policies-that-discriminate-against-us-workers-and-employers https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/-wyden-and-cra... [2] - https://tvn24.pl/polska/szczyt-w-paryzu-donald-tusk-przed-wylotem-nie-przewidujemy-wyslania-zolnierzy-do-ukrainy-st8309570 https://tvn24.pl/polska/szczyt-w-paryzu-donald-tusk-przed-wy... [3] - https://www.ft.com/content/616c79ee-34de-425a-865e-e94ba10be788 https://www.ft.com/content/616c79ee-34de-425a-865e-e94ba10be... [4] - http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm [5] - https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83c6d0868f4e8e6eb0.html https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83...

sofixa 11mo ago
> whenever a joint EU project is formed between two countries with vendors, they inevitabely end up collapsing due to domestic political considerations such as the European MBT and FCAS - no leader wants to be the leader who shut down a factory with 1200 high paying unionized jobs for the greater good Eurofighter Typhoon and before that the Panavia Tornado. That lineage's next up is the GCAP 6th gen plane. Horizon/Orizonte and after that the FREMM (which is so good even the US are buying it). In general Italian/French naval cooperation is very strong. The whole of MBDA and hell even Airbus were created for inter-country cooperation. There are plenty of successful examples on which to build on, as well as failures from which to learn. But again, today very few military things cannot be sourced from a European supplier. BAE, Leonardo, Dassault, Thales, Rheinmetall, KNDS, Saab, Fincantieri, Naval Group, Indra, Airbus, MBDA etc. are world leaders in their respective fields. > The reality is, if we the US make a deal with Russia over the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next 12 months, the EU will have no choice but to accept it if you do not put boots on the ground and if you do not expropriate Russian government assets in the EU No? US can sign whatever bootlicking deal it wants with Russia, but it's up to Ukraine what happens actually. The EU will continue backing Ukraine. Boots on the ground are highly unlikely, but exploration of Russian assets is quite probable (opposition isn't massive, and as time goes on, will only whither). > We view the DSA as a non-tariff barrier to American services companies. This is both a Trump admin view [0] as well as a Biden-era admin view [1]. Cool, nobody cares. The US has put in sufficient actual tariffs that it cannot scream "unfair". EU leaders will try to negotiate whatever they can to lower short term economic damage, but the long term damage is done. The US is not a reliable trade or anything partner, and there's no going back on that. Regarding your Mughal and Qing comparisons... Damn, where do I even start? EU isn't a country, so the comparison is off from the start.
- alephnerd 11mo ago
  > The EU will continue backing Ukraine How? Ukraine uses American intel for targeting, a significant amount of American munitions either bought directly from the US or indirectly by member states, and more critically, we in the US can force Ukraine to the table by preventing access to these systems. > but exploration of Russian assets is quite probable (opposition isn't massive... How? Belgium has vetoed expropriating Russian assets [0] because the ECB rejected providing a backstop. And Hungary has vetoed the utilization of Eurobonds [1] If EU member states cannot expropriate Russian assets nor provide boots on the ground in Ukraine nor provide munitions and intel to replace American offerings in the next 1 year, what else is there that the EU can do? On top of that, we've given the 2027 deadline for NATO, so now what should the EU prioritize? > That lineage's next up is the GCAP 6th gen plane Which isn't really an EU project - it's a Leonardo SA - Mitsubishi project as Leonardo is dual British-Italian. And that's my point. No EU joint defense project succeeds because inevitably individual states in the EU protect their champions > The US is not a reliable trade or anything partner, and there's no going back on that. Yep. And who else is there? The Chinese gave the exact same ultimatum as the US to European leadership, and so are the Indians as part of the FTA negotiation. And we can always put the squeeze on Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and LVMH and make both Germany and France squeal [2] and blunt any regulations coming out of the EU as a result - just like the China [3] and India [4]. > are world leaders in their respective fields They absolutely are in R&D and IP, but their production will not scale out until 2029-35, at which point it would be too late. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/belgium-rejects-eu-proposal-to-tap-russian-funds-for-ukraine-aid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/belgium-r... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-shoots-down-eurobonds-alternative-eu-commission-russian-asset-plan/ https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-shoots-down-eurobond... [2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/eu-fight-against-trump-s-tariffs-is-blunted-by-corporate-lobbying https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/eu-fight-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-eu-trade-spats-next-swipe-may-hit-lvmh-2024-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-eu-trade-spats-n... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-india-unit-faces-14-billion-tax-evasion-notice-2024-11-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...