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Would think that blue origin and project kuiper launching for amazon that would put downward pressure on SpaceX, as they are about to have a huge amount of comp

by bfeynman 10mo ago

Would think that blue origin and project kuiper launching for amazon that would put downward pressure on SpaceX, as they are about to have a huge amount of competition for starlink, as Amazon has massive distribution advantages - wouldn't be surprised introductory bundling with Prime etc...

saubeidl 10mo ago
> as they are about to have a huge amount of competition for starlink Don't forget about IRIS2!
- panick21_ 10mo ago
  Your joking right? IRIS2 is mostly for government and has nowhere near the capacity or ground infrastructure necessary. Lets alone the advanced laser links to compete for shipping and planes. Let alone the manufacturing of ground terminals.
  - saubeidl 10mo ago
    Iris2 doesn't require ground terminals, it uses good ol 5G
    - vardump 10mo ago
      Starlink will soon be (probably already is) 4G/5G capable. I'd be surprised if Kuiper won't get the same capability.
    - panick21_ 10mo ago
      Iris2 might will support 5G-NTN. But that doesn't many any phone can use it no problem. Even if you use 5G-NTN you want some dedicated terminals, and there are prototypes for that. The exact details for Iris2 is not yet known publicly and there are many vendors trying to get in on it. The specification basically says support 5G-NTN (3GPP) “to the maximum extent possible”. And maybe future handsets will support it better. But we are decently far from a situation where Iris2 has a dedicated consumer arm that spits out millions of consumer grade standard terminals that people can set up within minutes. We are still very early, with contracts just signed and many questions still open. And ESA not exactly having a track record of great execution. Lets remember this system even if you are insane optimistic will not exist fully before 2031. Likely years after that if you take into account all the ongoing issues. And even when it finally arrives, the capacity isn't really designed for mass users against Starlink anyway.
gsibble 10mo ago
What are you joking? Amazon is super far behind and unlikely to be able to launch its satellites in time to meet its FCC licensing requirements. They won't even be only for 24+ months. Meanwhile Starlink is growing very quickly. Amazon is not a competitor until they actually have a viable product which they may never achieve.
- standardUser 10mo ago
  China will match Starlink in ~5 years and will push adoption hard through it's Belt and Road initiative, just as it has with it's (admittedly superior) GPS system. Starlink may become the de facto option in the Western world, but it won't have a chance at a global monopoly.
  - ben_w 10mo ago
    > Starlink may become the de facto option in the Western world, but it won't have a chance at a global monopoly. Well, the US sphere of influence, at least. Musk's aggravating enough of Europe that he may find that door is closing and locking.
- danny_codes 10mo ago
  Starlink is not going to be a monopoly. The other big countries won’t allow it. Like Tesla, SpaceX was ahead of the game by making big bets on new technology. Over time, that lead erodes when other players start competing. Tesla is now a declining player in EVs rapidly falling behind market leaders in AV and battery tech. I suspect spaceX will have a similar trajectory
  - panick21_ 10mo ago
    Tesla never had unique technology, except maybe the 'software defined car' but that wasn't the big sellers on its own. Tesla integrated other peoples cells into a nice system, but they were never uniquely good at that. They were successful because they invested a huge amount into scaling battery manufacture faster then anybody in the beginning. Something that everybody could replicate. SpaceX on the other hand has a true technical advantage. But its also a much smaller market.

saubeidl 10mo ago

> as they are about to have a huge amount of competition for starlink Don't forget about IRIS2!

panick21_ 10mo ago
Your joking right? IRIS2 is mostly for government and has nowhere near the capacity or ground infrastructure necessary. Lets alone the advanced laser links to compete for shipping and planes. Let alone the manufacturing of ground terminals.
- saubeidl 10mo ago
  Iris2 doesn't require ground terminals, it uses good ol 5G
  - vardump 10mo ago
    Starlink will soon be (probably already is) 4G/5G capable. I'd be surprised if Kuiper won't get the same capability.
  - panick21_ 10mo ago
    Iris2 might will support 5G-NTN. But that doesn't many any phone can use it no problem. Even if you use 5G-NTN you want some dedicated terminals, and there are prototypes for that. The exact details for Iris2 is not yet known publicly and there are many vendors trying to get in on it. The specification basically says support 5G-NTN (3GPP) “to the maximum extent possible”. And maybe future handsets will support it better. But we are decently far from a situation where Iris2 has a dedicated consumer arm that spits out millions of consumer grade standard terminals that people can set up within minutes. We are still very early, with contracts just signed and many questions still open. And ESA not exactly having a track record of great execution. Lets remember this system even if you are insane optimistic will not exist fully before 2031. Likely years after that if you take into account all the ongoing issues. And even when it finally arrives, the capacity isn't really designed for mass users against Starlink anyway.

gsibble 10mo ago

What are you joking? Amazon is super far behind and unlikely to be able to launch its satellites in time to meet its FCC licensing requirements. They won't even be only for 24+ months. Meanwhile Starlink is growing very quickly. Amazon is not a competitor until they actually have a viable product which they may never achieve.

standardUser 10mo ago
China will match Starlink in ~5 years and will push adoption hard through it's Belt and Road initiative, just as it has with it's (admittedly superior) GPS system. Starlink may become the de facto option in the Western world, but it won't have a chance at a global monopoly.
- ben_w 10mo ago
  > Starlink may become the de facto option in the Western world, but it won't have a chance at a global monopoly. Well, the US sphere of influence, at least. Musk's aggravating enough of Europe that he may find that door is closing and locking.
danny_codes 10mo ago
Starlink is not going to be a monopoly. The other big countries won’t allow it. Like Tesla, SpaceX was ahead of the game by making big bets on new technology. Over time, that lead erodes when other players start competing. Tesla is now a declining player in EVs rapidly falling behind market leaders in AV and battery tech. I suspect spaceX will have a similar trajectory
- panick21_ 10mo ago
  Tesla never had unique technology, except maybe the 'software defined car' but that wasn't the big sellers on its own. Tesla integrated other peoples cells into a nice system, but they were never uniquely good at that. They were successful because they invested a huge amount into scaling battery manufacture faster then anybody in the beginning. Something that everybody could replicate. SpaceX on the other hand has a true technical advantage. But its also a much smaller market.