5 ms·

> Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality… Don't assume. https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html "When

by ceejayoz 11mo ago

> Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality… Don't assume. https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html "When evaluating data from VAERS, it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established." > What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit? He gets to restrict vaccines, which is a thing he's wanted to do for decades. (And not just COVID ones; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-acip-vaccine-panel-hepatitis-b-birth-dose/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-acip-vaccine-panel-hepatiti... happened this morning. Or the spurious claims about Tylenol and autism.) What about this administration makes you think they care about having their false claims "shredded in 24 hours"?

andreygrehov 11mo ago
Duh. VAERS guide says raw reports dont 100% prove causality. Nobody claims they do. That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. They could've just said "VAERS proves nothing" and left the recommendation unchanged. Instead they wrote it up, leaked it early, and invited the exact scrutiny you're giving it now. If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. They only take that risk if the OBPV analysis actually held up internally. Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978 https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978
- ceejayoz 11mo ago
  > That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. And we're back at the "Hitler provided free things to Jews" technical truth again. This is likely an accurate statement! But it'd deeply missing important context. > If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. This is likely meaningless to the guy who leaves dead bears in Central Park. The biggest political innovation in the last 50 years or so is the discovery that you can look like a clown without much consequence. > Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978 https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978 I don't recommend eating poop, but that doesn't mean it causes autism.
  - andreygrehov 11mo ago
    Your arguments in a nutshell: 1. Hitler gave Jews free stuff (technical truth used to mislead) 2. Dead bear guy doesn’t care about looking like a clown 3. Therefore the OBPV causality review must be deceptive sleight-of-hand That's literally a conspiracy theory. On Tylenol, FDA did add a "possible association" warning in Sept 2025 (RFK’s call), but even the new label says evidence is only _suggestive_, not proven. Poop analogy fits the anti side better: no, avoiding fever meds won't prevent autism, but it could harm pregnancies. What exactly is the "important context"?
    - ceejayoz 11mo ago
      The sleight of hand is pretending ten kids dying of a rare vaccine side effect is at all surprising when we gave it to billions of people. Eating pretzels has a more dangerous safety profile than that. People choke to death.
      - andreygrehov 11mo ago
        Is there a strong evidence that kids need it in the first place? A stricter protocol does not dismiss the kids, right?
        ceejayoz 11mo ago
        > Is there a strong evidence that kids need it in the first place? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/fda-officials-have-said-without-evidence-that-covid-19-vaccines-have-killed-children-heres-what-you-should-know https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/fda-officials-have-said... "U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows that since the start of the pandemic, more than 2,000 children age 18 and younger in the U.S. have died from COVID-19. Nearly 700, or about 33%, were less than 1 year old." Given the effectiveness at preventing death, I'll happily trade 2,000 COVID deaths for 10 myocarditis deaths.
        andreygrehov 11mo ago
- magicalist 11mo ago
  > That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. We don't actually know who at the OBPV did the review (Prasad only referred to the results coming from "the team") and the causal ranking they used included any case where causality was subjectively rated between "certain" and "possible/likely". We also know that two orders of magnitude more children died from covid than that, and we have strong studies suggesting that myocarditis from covid is both more common and more severe than the observed cases tied to the covid vaccines, two inconvenient stances that Prasad waves away as insufficiently studied, even as he bases his entire position on a subjective review of something by someone, and doesn't bother filling in those blanks. > If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown He beclowns himself all the time. He himself walked back the Tylenol claim after convincing Trump to talk about it so publicly and standing by him while he did it. Clearly he's not bothered by it.

andreygrehov 11mo ago

Duh. VAERS guide says raw reports dont 100% prove causality. Nobody claims they do. That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. They could've just said "VAERS proves nothing" and left the recommendation unchanged. Instead they wrote it up, leaked it early, and invited the exact scrutiny you're giving it now. If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. They only take that risk if the OBPV analysis actually held up internally. Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978 https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978

ceejayoz 11mo ago
> That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. And we're back at the "Hitler provided free things to Jews" technical truth again. This is likely an accurate statement! But it'd deeply missing important context. > If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. This is likely meaningless to the guy who leaves dead bears in Central Park. The biggest political innovation in the last 50 years or so is the discovery that you can look like a clown without much consequence. > Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978 https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978 I don't recommend eating poop, but that doesn't mean it causes autism.
- andreygrehov 11mo ago
  Your arguments in a nutshell: 1. Hitler gave Jews free stuff (technical truth used to mislead) 2. Dead bear guy doesn’t care about looking like a clown 3. Therefore the OBPV causality review must be deceptive sleight-of-hand That's literally a conspiracy theory. On Tylenol, FDA did add a "possible association" warning in Sept 2025 (RFK’s call), but even the new label says evidence is only _suggestive_, not proven. Poop analogy fits the anti side better: no, avoiding fever meds won't prevent autism, but it could harm pregnancies. What exactly is the "important context"?
  - ceejayoz 11mo ago
    The sleight of hand is pretending ten kids dying of a rare vaccine side effect is at all surprising when we gave it to billions of people. Eating pretzels has a more dangerous safety profile than that. People choke to death.
    - andreygrehov 11mo ago
      Is there a strong evidence that kids need it in the first place? A stricter protocol does not dismiss the kids, right?
      - ceejayoz 11mo ago
        > Is there a strong evidence that kids need it in the first place? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/fda-officials-have-said-without-evidence-that-covid-19-vaccines-have-killed-children-heres-what-you-should-know https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/fda-officials-have-said... "U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows that since the start of the pandemic, more than 2,000 children age 18 and younger in the U.S. have died from COVID-19. Nearly 700, or about 33%, were less than 1 year old." Given the effectiveness at preventing death, I'll happily trade 2,000 COVID deaths for 10 myocarditis deaths.
        andreygrehov 11mo ago
magicalist 11mo ago
> That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. We don't actually know who at the OBPV did the review (Prasad only referred to the results coming from "the team") and the causal ranking they used included any case where causality was subjectively rated between "certain" and "possible/likely". We also know that two orders of magnitude more children died from covid than that, and we have strong studies suggesting that myocarditis from covid is both more common and more severe than the observed cases tied to the covid vaccines, two inconvenient stances that Prasad waves away as insufficiently studied, even as he bases his entire position on a subjective review of something by someone, and doesn't bother filling in those blanks. > If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown He beclowns himself all the time. He himself walked back the Tylenol claim after convincing Trump to talk about it so publicly and standing by him while he did it. Clearly he's not bothered by it.