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How can the predictive market bros quantifiably turn this into a bet? At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop?

VectorLock 11mo ago
When investors start pulling Waring Hudsuckers.
purplelemons 11mo ago
> How can the predictive market bros quantifiably turn this into a bet? Put options trading.[^1] > At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop? Definitely after the fact. Maybe months, maybe years. I have personally been following the parallels with the dot-com bubble burst, but it's impossible to time the market. Financial data is always too slow when you want it fast and too fast when you need to watch it carefully. [^1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.asp https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...
rsynnott 11mo ago
> At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop? Usually, well after the fact. Especially in a case like this, where most of the money is being spent by the hyperscalers, who are unlikely to outright _collapse_ or anything. There are exceptions, where a bubble popping is accompanied by a massive single-day market crash, but that's not _really_ the norm.
tim333 11mo ago
Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. Current odds - 35% by end 2026.

VectorLock 11mo ago

When investors start pulling Waring Hudsuckers.

purplelemons 11mo ago

> How can the predictive market bros quantifiably turn this into a bet? Put options trading.[^1] > At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop? Definitely after the fact. Maybe months, maybe years. I have personally been following the parallels with the dot-com bubble burst, but it's impossible to time the market. Financial data is always too slow when you want it fast and too fast when you need to watch it carefully. [^1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.asp https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...

rsynnott 11mo ago

> At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop? Usually, well after the fact. Especially in a case like this, where most of the money is being spent by the hyperscalers, who are unlikely to outright _collapse_ or anything. There are exceptions, where a bubble popping is accompanied by a massive single-day market crash, but that's not _really_ the norm.

tim333 11mo ago

Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. Current odds - 35% by end 2026.