> I've been hearing that China will hit a plateau, like Japan, for at least 20 years now... Chinese growth is slowing permanently. GDP growth trend in 2000s w

> I've been hearing that China will hit a plateau, like Japan, for at least 20 years now... Chinese growth is slowing permanently. GDP growth trend in 2000s was 10-12% p.a. In the 2010s it was 6-8%. In the 2020a expected to be 3-4%. This slowdown is structural, not cyclical. China is aging faster than the west. Real estate in China at one point represented 25-30% of GDP, but this model has collapsed. Manufacturing remains strong, but is shifting upmarket, eg EVs, batteries, solar panels, robotics, semiconductors. China’s strategy is to move up the value chain faster than competitors can catch them. Consumption is weak, but has strong potential. China had high technological innovation, but political constraints are rising for them. China’s growth will be more state driven, less entrepreneurial, but formidable in industrial capacity.