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Would love to hear more about your answer to the fictional theories of psychohistory. I have not read the Foundation series in a long time, and I've never quite

by Jd 14y ago

Would love to hear more about your answer to the fictional theories of psychohistory. I have not read the Foundation series in a long time, and I've never quite understood the predictive mechanism, how possible Asimov actually thought it was, or the wrinkle introduced by the Mule.

crag 14y ago
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29: Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory.) Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms: 1. that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large 2. that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses I believe we are already laying the "foundation for this study. Look at the market. The foundation of the market is us - our consumption (which I believe is ultimately unsustainable - but that's another discussion). At it's core, that's what the market is all about. Right now I suspect Goldman (and the other investment houses) have stopped trying to predict the market. They are trying to control the market. Which leads to many of the problems we have now. Without accurate data, predictions, you can't completely control risk. So risk remains. Anyway to answer your question; I just repeated the theory of Asimov and argued why I thought the theories of psychohistory were already in practice. Which of course they were, since everyone was trying to predict the course of the market; which meant predicting the course of the herd. So if you studied people (all of the people), you could win in the market. But much of the market has changed in the last 20 years. I believe, today it's more about control then prediction.
- Jd 14y ago
  Hmmm. But the Mule operated outside the Seldon plan.
  - desas 14y ago
    Psychohistory involves predicting the effects of large numbers of people and assumed that single individuals could not significantly change the future of the galaxy. Without giving too much away, The Mule was a unique being who could not have been predicted, who could significantly change the future of a whole galaxy. The Seldon Plan did have contingencies for this kind of thing, hence the Second Foundation novel.
desas 14y ago
Interestingly enough some historians believe in the central premise of psycho-history, that the actions of a large group of people are inevitable. Ian Morris touches on it in "Why the West Rules - For Now"

by Jd 14y ago

crag 14y ago

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29: Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory.) Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms: 1. that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large 2. that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses I believe we are already laying the "foundation for this study. Look at the market. The foundation of the market is us - our consumption (which I believe is ultimately unsustainable - but that's another discussion). At it's core, that's what the market is all about. Right now I suspect Goldman (and the other investment houses) have stopped trying to predict the market. They are trying to control the market. Which leads to many of the problems we have now. Without accurate data, predictions, you can't completely control risk. So risk remains. Anyway to answer your question; I just repeated the theory of Asimov and argued why I thought the theories of psychohistory were already in practice. Which of course they were, since everyone was trying to predict the course of the market; which meant predicting the course of the herd. So if you studied people (all of the people), you could win in the market. But much of the market has changed in the last 20 years. I believe, today it's more about control then prediction.

Jd 14y ago
Hmmm. But the Mule operated outside the Seldon plan.
- desas 14y ago
  Psychohistory involves predicting the effects of large numbers of people and assumed that single individuals could not significantly change the future of the galaxy. Without giving too much away, The Mule was a unique being who could not have been predicted, who could significantly change the future of a whole galaxy. The Seldon Plan did have contingencies for this kind of thing, hence the Second Foundation novel.

desas 14y ago

Interestingly enough some historians believe in the central premise of psycho-history, that the actions of a large group of people are inevitable. Ian Morris touches on it in "Why the West Rules - For Now"