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Anything that can't continue forever must eventually stop, but the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I don't think there's a proble
by immibis 11mo ago
Anything that can't continue forever must eventually stop, but the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I don't think there's a problem saying that there will be a crash but it's impossible to know when.
The longer a bubble grows, though, the worse it gets when it pops. According to Fed stats, we might still be postponing most of the crash that was going to happen in 2008.
- johncolanduoni 11mo agoIf the AI boosters are right about what the technology will be capable of in 5 years, at least some of the big player’s investments will be literally the most profitable investments that ever happened. This is a potential mispricing, not a system inherently incapable of paying off long term like the subprime mortgages were. I don’t think another step-change like we saw with GPT2/3 is likely in the mid-term future, but I don't think anyone has shown it’s virtually impossible.
- immibis 11mo agoThat's betting, basically, that there will be an oligarchy (multiple dictatorship) and the oligarchs (dictators) will be whoever owns OpenAI shares. If AI turns the world into a dictatorship, what gives anyone the idea they'll just agree to share that dictatorship with their shareholders? They could just ignore company law - they're dictators!