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At current run rates, China sells more NEVs (EVs and plug in hybrids) domestically every year than total US light vehicle sales, while also exporting 6M NEV un
by toomuchtodo 1y ago
At current run rates, China sells more NEVs (EVs and plug in hybrids) domestically every year than total US light vehicle sales, while also exporting 6M NEV units globally. As of 2025, EVs are 1/4 (~20M units) of all light vehicles sold globally annually. EVs are expensive in the US because the US prioritizes profits for incumbents, not because it is expensive or we cannot do it. They would just rather fossil fuels, SUVs, and light pickup trucks be sold.
The best part is it doesn't matter what the US does: China will transform global light vehicle mobility for us as they continue to scale manufacturing both domestically and internationally. As this piece mentions, US vehicles are stagnant because new vehicles prices are near ~$50k; US automakers have no incentives to innovate or increase supply to push prices down when tariffs make imports of cheaper cars economically unviable. US consumers are trapped in an extraction box. You want a car? You must buy it from the oligopoly. It's not "EVs are too expensive" but instead "the US system is structured to extract dollars and profits from consumers for fossil fuel and auto industry interests" while China ruthlessly innovates and scales.
TLDR Short term profits will be taken from this arrangement, old people in power in the US will keep aging out, and China will keep scaling up. Observe trajectories and rate of change, think in systems.
Side quest: What happens to US automakers when their export market demand is diminished, perhaps entirely, by Chinese exports?
Citations:
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-us-ev-race/ https://restofworld.org/2025/china-us-ev-race/
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/executive...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/electric-vehicle-sales-in-china/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/electric-vehicle-sales-i...
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/07/21/53-ev-share-in-china-june-2025-sales-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2025/07/21/53-ev-share-in-china-ju...
https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_industry_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_industry_in_C...
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300/chinese-ev-makers-step-gas-abroad-hedge-against-weaker-mainland-sales https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300...
https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-october-nev-sales-set-yet-more-records/ https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob...
https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-Rolls-off-the-Line-in-Brazil https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-...
https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expansion-industry-update/ https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-make-their-cars/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...
(tangentially, China is 1/3rd of total global manufacturing capacity, as of this comment)
- toomuchtodo 1y agoCitation of my thesis confirmed in this piece by Bloomberg: If Cars Are Too Expensive, Just Pump More Gas. What? - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-04/new-fuel-economy-rules-won-t-save-drivers-much https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-04/new-fu... | https://archive.today/ELhbL https://archive.today/ELhbL - December 4th, 2025