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>> Your theory doesn't work in real world timeline where we have to factor in actual execution time. ... That stuff takes years, (no "reply" button in your l

by tooltalk 10mo ago

>> Your theory doesn't work in real world timeline where we have to factor in actual execution time. ... That stuff takes years, (no "reply" button in your last comment) Sure, doesn't really matter. I just have to demonstrate that your "local competition" theory in pre-Xi era doesn't hold water and the real world data don't bear that out, which I already have. Whether Samsung China's sudden sales collapse came 1 day, or 1 year after Xi? not very relevant. That being said, in Apple's case, the Chinese media's coordinated attack started on Consumer Day in March 2013, just a day after Xi became president, but because of Apple's quick response and bold risky bet, suffered no damage. Samsung China's first sales decline since 2009 on the other hand became evident in Q1 2014 and after, or some 3 quarters after Xi. Or roughly equal to a 50% drop in market share and unit sales for the entire year 2014 and more significant drops in subsequent years. So we are talking 4+ years to go from 20% to less than 1%, so there goes your timeline arg out the window, too -- it's plenty time to implement informal anti-market policies and destroy a foreign competitor completely. Again, this dramatic drop was not seen elsewhere, but in only China, indicating that the problem wasn't inherent to Samsung's product offering, competitiveness, or market. In open markets, such as EU, Samsung maintained a steady ~32+% market share post-Xi and wasn't affected at all by the rise or fall of Huawei, before or after the ban. Samsung EU's market share dipped below 30% in 2021 for the first time in 8+ years, after Huawei's ban which further undermines the narrative that Samsung somehow benefited from it.

maxglute 10mo ago
E: last comment Real world data bares out that local competition theory holds. You've demonstrated questionable ability to intrepret data in real world context. Of course it's relevant when Samsung sales collapse happens if it happens in time period where policy changes (which again does not exist) simply could not have effect. The fact that collapse happened when Xi cannot have causative effect means Xi's policies (or lack of) was not responsible. If Xi entered office, made policy to kill Samsung, and 4-5 years later PRC built up domestic mobile players to do so, then sure. But those players already existed and had scaling plans to supplant Samsung domestically pre Xi. Samsung markshare dropping in subsequent years was because domestic PRC brands who built factories pre Xi started doing their natural scaling hence execution years prior to Xi resulted in capturing more marketshare in subsequent years, which entirely comports with timeline. Your theory also simply doesn't comport on the fundmental level that there weren't any anti-market policies in smart phone domain, because it was mature domain where pre Xi PRC competitors were already in place. Anti-market policies was for nacent industries, i.e. MIC2025. Dramatic drop was seen first in PRC then globally which fits customary trend of PRC players establishing in PRC first then expand globally. We have global data that Samsung sales went from stalling to negative while Huawei scaling as global player to rising after Huawei ban, i.e. Samsung share went from stalling to jumping to 40% in EU after Huawei ban from 30%. Like this is all very well established history, there's no need to entertain alternative / revisionist theories when plenty of market analysis at the time already discussed Huawei eating lunch of Samsung and Apple pre ban while Samsung being primarily benefitiary of HW ban. And again it entire avoids the fact that Samsung went backc to PRC for ODMs for the same reason PRC manufactures displaced Samsung, because PRC had the most cost competitor manufacturers for low-medium end devices that accounted for most sales. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/samsung-gains-huaweis-pain-central-eastern-europes-smartphone-market-q2-2019 https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/samsung-gains-h...
- tooltalk 10mo ago
  Sure, thx for playing, but really no point in talking in circles. I find your last cherrypicked "Central and Eastern" EU smartphone data another stroke of desperation/genius, though it is not totally unexpected. Quite revealing!

maxglute 10mo ago

E: last comment Real world data bares out that local competition theory holds. You've demonstrated questionable ability to intrepret data in real world context. Of course it's relevant when Samsung sales collapse happens if it happens in time period where policy changes (which again does not exist) simply could not have effect. The fact that collapse happened when Xi cannot have causative effect means Xi's policies (or lack of) was not responsible. If Xi entered office, made policy to kill Samsung, and 4-5 years later PRC built up domestic mobile players to do so, then sure. But those players already existed and had scaling plans to supplant Samsung domestically pre Xi. Samsung markshare dropping in subsequent years was because domestic PRC brands who built factories pre Xi started doing their natural scaling hence execution years prior to Xi resulted in capturing more marketshare in subsequent years, which entirely comports with timeline. Your theory also simply doesn't comport on the fundmental level that there weren't any anti-market policies in smart phone domain, because it was mature domain where pre Xi PRC competitors were already in place. Anti-market policies was for nacent industries, i.e. MIC2025. Dramatic drop was seen first in PRC then globally which fits customary trend of PRC players establishing in PRC first then expand globally. We have global data that Samsung sales went from stalling to negative while Huawei scaling as global player to rising after Huawei ban, i.e. Samsung share went from stalling to jumping to 40% in EU after Huawei ban from 30%. Like this is all very well established history, there's no need to entertain alternative / revisionist theories when plenty of market analysis at the time already discussed Huawei eating lunch of Samsung and Apple pre ban while Samsung being primarily benefitiary of HW ban. And again it entire avoids the fact that Samsung went backc to PRC for ODMs for the same reason PRC manufactures displaced Samsung, because PRC had the most cost competitor manufacturers for low-medium end devices that accounted for most sales. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/samsung-gains-huaweis-pain-central-eastern-europes-smartphone-market-q2-2019 https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/samsung-gains-h...

tooltalk 10mo ago
Sure, thx for playing, but really no point in talking in circles. I find your last cherrypicked "Central and Eastern" EU smartphone data another stroke of desperation/genius, though it is not totally unexpected. Quite revealing!