6 ms·

That's a bit revisionist. Network effects were obvious when Google acquired Youtube. Google Video had the edge technically, but it didn't matter because Youtube

That's a bit revisionist. Network effects were obvious when Google acquired Youtube. Google Video had the edge technically, but it didn't matter because Youtube had the users/content and Google saw that very clearly in their user growth before they made their offer.

usef- 10mo ago
I'm not sure about it having the edge, I thought Google video had a worse interface between them at the time. But that point feels eerily relevant anyway: a lot of normal people I see don't care if Claude/Gemini/etc are better models technically, they're comfortable with ChatGPT already. A lot of YT's growth at the time was word of mouth and brand among the population, which is currently ChatGPT's position.
- verdverm 10mo ago
  ChatGPT is losing their brand positioning to Google, Anthropic, and Chinese Open Source Altman knows this and why he called code red. If OpenAI hasn't produce a fully new model in 1.5 years, how much longer can they hang on before people will turn to alternatives that are technically better? How long before they could feasibly put out a new model if they are having issues in pre-training?
  - rsanek 10mo ago
    They're losing their benchmark lead to those companies. But no chance that your average user is even aware of Anthropic, much less OSS models. The brand is mostly fine IMO, it's the product that needs to catch up.
    - deaux 10mo ago
      You conveniently left out their main competitor, Google, there.
    - verdverm 10mo ago
      The problem for the brand is that the product is lagging, I've already heard it from people IRL Their brand is not ok based on what I've heard, certainly no moat
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
  - AbstractH24 10mo ago
    Do you have any proof of this? Still feels like ChatGPT is synonymous with the current wave of generative ai Even if they aren’t the market lead and it’s main offering is being commodified
- golfer 10mo ago
  Maybe ChatGPT is sticky enough that people won't switch. But since we're talking about something as old as Google Video, we could also talk about AltaVista, which was "good enough" until people discovered a better and more useful alternative. A lot of "normal people" are learning fast about ChatGPT alternatives now. Gemini in particular is getting a lot of mainstream buzz. Things like this [1] with 14k likes are happening everyday on social. Marc Benioff's love for Gemini broke through into the mainstream also. [1] https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1995900344224907500 https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1995900344224907500 [2] https://x.com/Benioff/status/1992726929204760661 https://x.com/Benioff/status/1992726929204760661
- AbstractH24 10mo ago
  This is why Anthropic is likely the Netscape of this era. Not OpenAI

usef- 10mo ago

I'm not sure about it having the edge, I thought Google video had a worse interface between them at the time. But that point feels eerily relevant anyway: a lot of normal people I see don't care if Claude/Gemini/etc are better models technically, they're comfortable with ChatGPT already. A lot of YT's growth at the time was word of mouth and brand among the population, which is currently ChatGPT's position.

verdverm 10mo ago
ChatGPT is losing their brand positioning to Google, Anthropic, and Chinese Open Source Altman knows this and why he called code red. If OpenAI hasn't produce a fully new model in 1.5 years, how much longer can they hang on before people will turn to alternatives that are technically better? How long before they could feasibly put out a new model if they are having issues in pre-training?
- rsanek 10mo ago
  They're losing their benchmark lead to those companies. But no chance that your average user is even aware of Anthropic, much less OSS models. The brand is mostly fine IMO, it's the product that needs to catch up.
  - deaux 10mo ago
    You conveniently left out their main competitor, Google, there.
  - verdverm 10mo ago
    The problem for the brand is that the product is lagging, I've already heard it from people IRL Their brand is not ok based on what I've heard, certainly no moat
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
- AbstractH24 10mo ago
  Do you have any proof of this? Still feels like ChatGPT is synonymous with the current wave of generative ai Even if they aren’t the market lead and it’s main offering is being commodified
golfer 10mo ago
Maybe ChatGPT is sticky enough that people won't switch. But since we're talking about something as old as Google Video, we could also talk about AltaVista, which was "good enough" until people discovered a better and more useful alternative. A lot of "normal people" are learning fast about ChatGPT alternatives now. Gemini in particular is getting a lot of mainstream buzz. Things like this [1] with 14k likes are happening everyday on social. Marc Benioff's love for Gemini broke through into the mainstream also. [1] https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1995900344224907500 https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1995900344224907500 [2] https://x.com/Benioff/status/1992726929204760661 https://x.com/Benioff/status/1992726929204760661
AbstractH24 10mo ago
This is why Anthropic is likely the Netscape of this era. Not OpenAI