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the hurdle to full autonomous driving was basically jumped by Tesla this year. Tesla doesn't have driverless operations anywhere, and their Austin fleet consis

the hurdle to full autonomous driving was basically jumped by Tesla this year. Tesla doesn't have driverless operations anywhere, and their Austin fleet consists of <30 vehicles with full time safety drivers that have a far worse safety record than Waymo vehicles. It's not nothing, but it's a long way from being a complete system (let alone the obviously superior one).

vardump 11mo ago
IIRC, Tesla's safety record is about 30% worse than Waymo. The gap has been closing rapidly. It's not that long time ago Tesla made an order of magnitude more mistakes than Waymo.
- AlotOfReading 11mo ago
  That's with safety drivers, a small fleet, and literally only the most recent data (since it wasn't broken out before). My experience with AV deployments is that your incident rate is significantly different once you remove humans, and small fleet sizes/deployment areas hide a lot of long tail issues. Waymo is operating at a much larger scale across a huge range of conditions with hardware that's generations behind their latest and still performing better.
  - vardump 11mo ago
    Ok, I guess we'll need to wait until Tesla removes the safety drivers to see the whole truth.
    - Zigurd 11mo ago
      No need to wait. It's got the same reliability as FSD. If people were sitting in the backseat while FSD is driving and taking a nap, I'd believe it's comparable to Waymo.
    - UltraSane 11mo ago
      You are going to be waiting a while.
- tziki 11mo ago
  If that was true they would've already released a full, no safety driver service. They have not.
- UltraSane 11mo ago
  That is WITH humans ready to take over! So it is really terrible.
jaimex2 11mo ago
2026 will be an interesting year for sure. I personally don't see a future where Waymo or any Lidar solution stick around till 2030. Tesla are on their final stretch now and can basically manufacture the entire Waymo fleet in Robotaxis in a week.
- UltraSane 11mo ago
  I really do not understand comments like this. Waymo cars are actually autonomous. They can drive around empty for thousands of miles with no issues. No Tesla has ever driven empty for any significant length of time.
  - jaimex2 11mo ago
    Yes, because Waymo is a specialist at it's geofenced area. Tesla's are generalists, they can self drive in places Waymo's simple cannot and never will be able to. One of these can scale, the other cannot.

vardump 11mo ago

IIRC, Tesla's safety record is about 30% worse than Waymo. The gap has been closing rapidly. It's not that long time ago Tesla made an order of magnitude more mistakes than Waymo.

AlotOfReading 11mo ago
That's with safety drivers, a small fleet, and literally only the most recent data (since it wasn't broken out before). My experience with AV deployments is that your incident rate is significantly different once you remove humans, and small fleet sizes/deployment areas hide a lot of long tail issues. Waymo is operating at a much larger scale across a huge range of conditions with hardware that's generations behind their latest and still performing better.
- vardump 11mo ago
  Ok, I guess we'll need to wait until Tesla removes the safety drivers to see the whole truth.
  - Zigurd 11mo ago
    No need to wait. It's got the same reliability as FSD. If people were sitting in the backseat while FSD is driving and taking a nap, I'd believe it's comparable to Waymo.
  - UltraSane 11mo ago
    You are going to be waiting a while.
tziki 11mo ago
If that was true they would've already released a full, no safety driver service. They have not.
UltraSane 11mo ago
That is WITH humans ready to take over! So it is really terrible.

jaimex2 11mo ago

2026 will be an interesting year for sure. I personally don't see a future where Waymo or any Lidar solution stick around till 2030. Tesla are on their final stretch now and can basically manufacture the entire Waymo fleet in Robotaxis in a week.

UltraSane 11mo ago
I really do not understand comments like this. Waymo cars are actually autonomous. They can drive around empty for thousands of miles with no issues. No Tesla has ever driven empty for any significant length of time.
- jaimex2 11mo ago
  Yes, because Waymo is a specialist at it's geofenced area. Tesla's are generalists, they can self drive in places Waymo's simple cannot and never will be able to. One of these can scale, the other cannot.