3 ms·

>The bank's analysts then assumed Anthropic gross profit margins of 60%, and estimated that 75% of related costs are spent on AWS cloud services. Not estimate,

by 1shooner 10mo ago

>The bank's analysts then assumed Anthropic gross profit margins of 60%, and estimated that 75% of related costs are spent on AWS cloud services. Not estimate, assumption.

simonw 10mo ago
If Morgan Stanley are willing to stake their credibility on an assumption I'm going to take that assumption seriously.
- SiempreViernes 10mo ago
  Calling this unmotivated assumption an "estimate" is just plain lying though, regardless of the faith uou have in the source of the assumption.
  - simonw 10mo ago
    I've seen a bunch of other estimates / claims of a %50-60 margin for Anthropic on serving. This was just the first one I found a credible-looking link I could drop into this discussion. The best one is from the Information, but they're behind a paywall so not useful to link to. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-70-billion-revenue-17-billion-cash-flow-2028 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-7...
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
- skywhopper 10mo ago
  This is pretty silly thing to say. Investment banks suffer zero reputational damage when their analysts get this sort of thing wrong. They don’t even have to care about accuracy because there will never be a way to even check this number, if anyone even wanted to go back and rate their assumptions, which also never happens.
  - simonw 10mo ago
    Fair enough. I was looking for a shortcut way of saying "I find this guess credible", see also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126597 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126597
- copedetector 10mo ago
  Cope detected. Classification code: ANT
robotresearcher 10mo ago
Those are estimates. Notice they didn’t assume 0% or a million %. They chose numbers that are a plausible approximation of the true unknown values, also known as an estimate.

3 ms·

>The bank's analysts then assumed Anthropic gross profit margins of 60%, and estimated that 75% of related costs are spent on AWS cloud services. Not estimate,

by 1shooner 10mo ago

>The bank's analysts then assumed Anthropic gross profit margins of 60%, and estimated that 75% of related costs are spent on AWS cloud services. Not estimate, assumption.

simonw 10mo ago
If Morgan Stanley are willing to stake their credibility on an assumption I'm going to take that assumption seriously.
- SiempreViernes 10mo ago
  Calling this unmotivated assumption an "estimate" is just plain lying though, regardless of the faith uou have in the source of the assumption.
  - simonw 10mo ago
    I've seen a bunch of other estimates / claims of a %50-60 margin for Anthropic on serving. This was just the first one I found a credible-looking link I could drop into this discussion. The best one is from the Information, but they're behind a paywall so not useful to link to. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-70-billion-revenue-17-billion-cash-flow-2028 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-7...
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
- skywhopper 10mo ago
  This is pretty silly thing to say. Investment banks suffer zero reputational damage when their analysts get this sort of thing wrong. They don’t even have to care about accuracy because there will never be a way to even check this number, if anyone even wanted to go back and rate their assumptions, which also never happens.
  - simonw 10mo ago
    Fair enough. I was looking for a shortcut way of saying "I find this guess credible", see also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126597 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126597
- copedetector 10mo ago
  Cope detected. Classification code: ANT
robotresearcher 10mo ago
Those are estimates. Notice they didn’t assume 0% or a million %. They chose numbers that are a plausible approximation of the true unknown values, also known as an estimate.