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I hate to repeat this old adage, but in case it helps to see it here: if you've been wanting to buy something, and you see yourself staying in the area and the

I hate to repeat this old adage, but in case it helps to see it here: if you've been wanting to buy something, and you see yourself staying in the area and the place itself for many years, and you have some savings buffer if things go south, then buy. Don't do it because you want to magically have paper equity gains in the next 12 months. Do it because you like the place you're looking at, the neighborhood it's in, and because you have enough funds in place to get through a downturn if a layoff happened. Of course I say all of that and it's good to know what could happen if a terrible downturn does happen like in 2008 (even the nicest Bay Area hoods prices dropped 25%+). Last thing, single family houses, especially in the Bay Area, are typically more insulated from price drops (insulated not immune). If you can afford a small single family then it might be worth it, especially if there's expansion potential (either for yourself or the next buyer if you decide to move on). And even better if there are some cosmetic problems that are tractable because let's say you do get laid off there's nothing like building some sweat equity in the downtime. Just my two cents having gone through similar in the past.

deadbabe 10mo ago
So what you’re saying is, if you want a condo, just wait, because a price drop soon means your money will go a lot further. If you want a SFH, buy now, price drop will be small.
- harmmonica 10mo ago
  Not quite what I was saying, but now that you've put that so succinctly, if it were me, knowing the Bay Area and what's happening in tech/AI at the moment, I would hold off on the condo. The single family with some grit I'd probably say have at it assuming the most important part of what I said holds true: it's not for equity upside, it's because you want to own that place, and in that location because that's where you will be happy living. If someone reads this thread once there's been another 2008-level reckoning in 2026 I'm not surprised the reckoning occurred.
kakacik 10mo ago
FOMO is a powerful emotion, but like all emotions its a bad idea to make it a primary decision maker for any important matters. Reading all this from distant Europe, its interesting (and logical) how in US the swings in prices are so extreme in both directions. In fact, most things in any regard are way more extreme in US compared to Europe. May be good for the lucky ones but long term stability or dependability this ain't.
- harmmonica 10mo ago
  If you're taking what I said as FOMO I didn't intend it that way. The opposite in fact unless your sentiment is that anyone who wants to buy and live in property in the US is solely doing so because of FOMO. If you're saying that then that's a tautology and so how can I argue with it? But if that's not what you meant then there are few things we as people can do for "stability and dependability" that better accomplish those goals than owning property that you actually want to live in. Most importantly it puts a permanent roof over your head, which we all need in some way, shape or form to survive (no exaggeration there I don't think). And it makes the cost of that necessity predictable, especially in California where property taxes are almost perfectly-predictable. It pretty much de-risks the largest expense most people will have in their lifetimes. That's not to say that you don't lose something in the proposition, but calling that FOMO seems inaccurate.
  - kakacik 10mo ago
    There are entire nations which mostly spend their whole lives renting. Ie where I live - Switzerland, many nordics. Maybe correlation with highest happiness levels in the world is coincidental, maybe its not. Happiness simply comes from other things in life than 'my castle my kingdom'. I know its a typical US mindset (and far from US only) to have a house on your own, but its still an emotion in same vein what you describe. Mixed with rationale of course since proper social net in US is nearly non-existing, if you fail out with you on the street. Also a rationale would be about very high chance of good return on such investment so don't take this as some sort of attack. I also own my place (apartment) but took it as a location & social bonds stability point for kids mostly, whether it will earn something compared to inflation is not that important to me, it probably won't or very little. Good bigger apartment close to nature trumps a crappy house in my view but thats personal opinion. Even when owning, its almost impossible to retire here in Switzerland, the costs are prohibitive even on Swiss pensions. Unless you want to live as relatively poor, same money gets you much further almost everywhere else. So that stability is always temporary.
oxag3n 10mo ago
I know a lot of people in the Bay Area who did exactly the opposite in 2017-19, looking at how prices doubled, they assured me in 5 years their investment would double as well.
- harmmonica 10mo ago
  Do you mean the opposite as in they purchased because they wanted to make some money? If so, that makes sense since one of the many reasons people buy homes is to invest in them. Here's hoping you didn't follow their lead, though, given https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE6075 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE6075. But even having said that, people will buy houses or condos in SF today and make a profit in spite of any broader market conditions. But that seems dumb for someone who has a full-time gig that's anything other than identifying underpriced residential investment opportunities given how crazy both housing prices and equity (tech in particular) prices are.
  - oxag3n 10mo ago
    Yes, opposite meaning they purchased to make some money. I'm happy I didn't follow their lead and it made me way more mobile during the pandemic and investments that would be paid as a fat down-payment grew significantly (even if considering leverage housing enables).

deadbabe 10mo ago

So what you’re saying is, if you want a condo, just wait, because a price drop soon means your money will go a lot further. If you want a SFH, buy now, price drop will be small.

harmmonica 10mo ago
Not quite what I was saying, but now that you've put that so succinctly, if it were me, knowing the Bay Area and what's happening in tech/AI at the moment, I would hold off on the condo. The single family with some grit I'd probably say have at it assuming the most important part of what I said holds true: it's not for equity upside, it's because you want to own that place, and in that location because that's where you will be happy living. If someone reads this thread once there's been another 2008-level reckoning in 2026 I'm not surprised the reckoning occurred.

kakacik 10mo ago

FOMO is a powerful emotion, but like all emotions its a bad idea to make it a primary decision maker for any important matters. Reading all this from distant Europe, its interesting (and logical) how in US the swings in prices are so extreme in both directions. In fact, most things in any regard are way more extreme in US compared to Europe. May be good for the lucky ones but long term stability or dependability this ain't.

harmmonica 10mo ago
If you're taking what I said as FOMO I didn't intend it that way. The opposite in fact unless your sentiment is that anyone who wants to buy and live in property in the US is solely doing so because of FOMO. If you're saying that then that's a tautology and so how can I argue with it? But if that's not what you meant then there are few things we as people can do for "stability and dependability" that better accomplish those goals than owning property that you actually want to live in. Most importantly it puts a permanent roof over your head, which we all need in some way, shape or form to survive (no exaggeration there I don't think). And it makes the cost of that necessity predictable, especially in California where property taxes are almost perfectly-predictable. It pretty much de-risks the largest expense most people will have in their lifetimes. That's not to say that you don't lose something in the proposition, but calling that FOMO seems inaccurate.
- kakacik 10mo ago
  There are entire nations which mostly spend their whole lives renting. Ie where I live - Switzerland, many nordics. Maybe correlation with highest happiness levels in the world is coincidental, maybe its not. Happiness simply comes from other things in life than 'my castle my kingdom'. I know its a typical US mindset (and far from US only) to have a house on your own, but its still an emotion in same vein what you describe. Mixed with rationale of course since proper social net in US is nearly non-existing, if you fail out with you on the street. Also a rationale would be about very high chance of good return on such investment so don't take this as some sort of attack. I also own my place (apartment) but took it as a location & social bonds stability point for kids mostly, whether it will earn something compared to inflation is not that important to me, it probably won't or very little. Good bigger apartment close to nature trumps a crappy house in my view but thats personal opinion. Even when owning, its almost impossible to retire here in Switzerland, the costs are prohibitive even on Swiss pensions. Unless you want to live as relatively poor, same money gets you much further almost everywhere else. So that stability is always temporary.

oxag3n 10mo ago

I know a lot of people in the Bay Area who did exactly the opposite in 2017-19, looking at how prices doubled, they assured me in 5 years their investment would double as well.

harmmonica 10mo ago
Do you mean the opposite as in they purchased because they wanted to make some money? If so, that makes sense since one of the many reasons people buy homes is to invest in them. Here's hoping you didn't follow their lead, though, given https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE6075 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE6075. But even having said that, people will buy houses or condos in SF today and make a profit in spite of any broader market conditions. But that seems dumb for someone who has a full-time gig that's anything other than identifying underpriced residential investment opportunities given how crazy both housing prices and equity (tech in particular) prices are.
- oxag3n 10mo ago
  Yes, opposite meaning they purchased to make some money. I'm happy I didn't follow their lead and it made me way more mobile during the pandemic and investments that would be paid as a fat down-payment grew significantly (even if considering leverage housing enables).