4 ms·

This comment just indicates the difficulty of making accurate conclusions based on casual analysis like you're doing.

by shuckles 10mo ago

doctorpangloss 10mo ago
haha i misread casual as causal, but i guess, here are the "accurate conclusions" you are looking for, that is to say, what does rent control cause, as opposed to the vibes and correlations people are talking about? it's the "credibility revolution" and someone has won a nobel prize for it. rent control causes limited mobility (read: displacement out of town) by 20 percent; it causes reduced rental housing supply by 15 percent: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181289 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181289 rent control causes reduced property values: https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/housing%20market%202014.pdf https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/h...
- shuckles 10mo ago
  Did you write an entire comment by misreading "casual", the word I used, with "causal"? Otherwise, I have no idea how your reply relates to mine, as I didn't make any claims about the existence of such research.
  - ambicapter 10mo ago
    You called his analysis "casual" so he gave you in-depth research? Otherwise, what was the purpose of calling him casual? Just drive-by insults?
    - shuckles 10mo ago
      Casual is a perfectly reasonable descriptor of economic conclusions based on vibes and anecdotes about apartment building in Montreal. I don't think it's reasonable to read it as an insult.
- antisthenes 10mo ago
  You don't need a study to tell you that if you make things more difficult and worse for landlords, the housing supply will decrease. Courts actually need to do their jobs here for an optimal solution - e.g. it should be easy to punish shitty landlords AND easy to kick out shitty tenants. It shouldn't take a 1+ year wait (as during COVID) to get a landlord-tenant court date to resolve issues. The housing issue is multi-faceted however, so that's only 1 piece of the puzzle. But thanks to NIMBYs and building code overreach, it's literally impossible to build affordable housing that would rent at its own depreciation schedule.
  - jimnotgym 10mo ago
    > You don't need a study to tell you that if you make things more difficult and worse for landlords, the housing supply will decrease. That doesn't need to be true. In post WW2 UK the government built lots of rental property. That increased the housing supply and hurt private landlords at the same time.
    - shuckles 10mo ago
      This is right. More supply is bad for landlords. In particular, housing developers and landlords are different economic actors!
- bpt3 10mo ago
  You forgot to include the rest of the abstract: "Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law."

This comment just indicates the difficulty of making accurate conclusions based on casual analysis like you're doing.

haha i misread casual as causal, but i guess, here are the "accurate conclusions" you are looking for, that is to say, what does rent control cause, as opposed to the vibes and correlations people are talking about? it's the "credibility revolution" and someone has won a nobel prize for it. rent control causes limited mobility (read: displacement out of town) by 20 percent; it causes reduced rental housing supply by 15 percent: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181289 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181289 rent control causes reduced property values: https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/housing%20market%202014.pdf https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/h...

shuckles 10mo ago
Did you write an entire comment by misreading "casual", the word I used, with "causal"? Otherwise, I have no idea how your reply relates to mine, as I didn't make any claims about the existence of such research.
- ambicapter 10mo ago
  You called his analysis "casual" so he gave you in-depth research? Otherwise, what was the purpose of calling him casual? Just drive-by insults?
  - shuckles 10mo ago
    Casual is a perfectly reasonable descriptor of economic conclusions based on vibes and anecdotes about apartment building in Montreal. I don't think it's reasonable to read it as an insult.
antisthenes 10mo ago
You don't need a study to tell you that if you make things more difficult and worse for landlords, the housing supply will decrease. Courts actually need to do their jobs here for an optimal solution - e.g. it should be easy to punish shitty landlords AND easy to kick out shitty tenants. It shouldn't take a 1+ year wait (as during COVID) to get a landlord-tenant court date to resolve issues. The housing issue is multi-faceted however, so that's only 1 piece of the puzzle. But thanks to NIMBYs and building code overreach, it's literally impossible to build affordable housing that would rent at its own depreciation schedule.
- jimnotgym 10mo ago
  > You don't need a study to tell you that if you make things more difficult and worse for landlords, the housing supply will decrease. That doesn't need to be true. In post WW2 UK the government built lots of rental property. That increased the housing supply and hurt private landlords at the same time.
  - shuckles 10mo ago
    This is right. More supply is bad for landlords. In particular, housing developers and landlords are different economic actors!
bpt3 10mo ago
You forgot to include the rest of the abstract: "Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law."