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Interesting that in an article entitled "Why I'm betting against AGI hype", the author doesn't actually say what bet he is making - i.e. what specific decisions
by JuniperMesos 11mo ago
Interesting that in an article entitled "Why I'm betting against AGI hype", the author doesn't actually say what bet he is making - i.e. what specific decisions is he making, based on his prediction that AGI is much less likely to arise from LLMs than the probability the market is implicitly pricing in suggests. What assets is he investing in or shorting? What life decisions is he making differently than he otherwise would?
I say this not because I think his prediction as stated here is necessarily wrong or unreasonable, but because I myself might want to make investment decisions based upon this prediction, and translating a prediction about the future into the correct executions today is not trivial.
Without addressing his argument about AGI-from-LLMs - because I don't have any better information myself than listening to Sutskever on Dwarkesh's podcast - I am somewhat skeptical that the current market price of AI-related assets is actually pricing in a "60-80%" chance of AGI from LLMs specifically, rather than all the useful applications of LLMs that are not AGI. But this isn't a prediction I'm very confident in myself.
- karmakaze 11mo agoArmchair commentary. > I’ve listened to the optimists—the researchers and executives claiming [...] Actually researchers close to the problem are the first ones to give farther out target dates. And Yann LeCun is very vocal about LLMs being a dead end.
- klysm 11mo agoHe is starting a business that depends on them being a dead end
- techblueberry 11mo agoSounds like he’s putting his money where his mouth is.
- nomel 11mo ago> farther out target dates And, that's why there's so much investment. It's more of a "when" question, not an "if" question (although I have seen people claim that only meat can think).
- arisAlexis 11mo agoSame guy that predicted LLMs couldn't do something in 5000 years and they did it next year? (Google this, seriously)
- sidereal1 11mo agoCouldn't do what? You haven't told us what to search for.
- arisAlexis 11mo agoOpen browser and write "lecunn 5000"