4 ms·

Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

15 points by bandamo 10mo ago

zerosizedweasle 10mo ago
https://www.ft.com/content/d2fd7846-9e79-431c-a91e-06cea8c809b6 https://www.ft.com/content/d2fd7846-9e79-431c-a91e-06cea8c80... Morgan Stanley thinks you should short Oracle
- spwa4 10mo ago
  Don't the cross-investments mean that if any of the AI behemoths (of which, perhaps surprisingly, Oracle is one) goes down, they all go down? Sundar Pichai even went on the front page of the BBC to state as much, and that despite Google probably being the most insulated of the bunch. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo
jalapenos 10mo ago
Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...
- s1mplicissimus 10mo ago
  looking forward to recommendations - i assume it's not easy to come up with an objectifiable state of affairs for "bubble has popped"
- XzAeRosho 10mo ago
  An option trader would bet on the volatility index of the predictions, instead of the prediction itself.
- zerosizedweasle 10mo ago
  It's worthless now, the 'AI boosters or I go broke crowd' - a significant section of the posters here - got to it. It was a lot different a few minutes ago.
rvz 10mo ago
My very firm timeframe is an economic crash before 2030 and a 10% increase in global unemployment before 2035.
alex-moon 10mo ago
Point of curiosity: the community prediction is, presumably, an arithmetic mean, but I argue that is not a good model for a dataset that almost certainly gets more dense closer to the present, creating a gradient out into the future. It would be great to see the geometric mean as well.
jqpabc123 10mo ago
When it pops, you won't need to ask. The answer will be obvious to everyone. The current AI bubble is a case study in how capitalist markets can be rigged by large companies.
delichon 10mo ago
And any day now people will wise up and the industrial revolution bubble will burst and we'll all go back to pastoralism. Unfortunately I'm not finding an ETF for pastoralism.
josefritzishere 10mo ago
Is Polymarket taking bets on this yet?

15 points by bandamo 10mo ago

https://www.ft.com/content/d2fd7846-9e79-431c-a91e-06cea8c809b6 https://www.ft.com/content/d2fd7846-9e79-431c-a91e-06cea8c80... Morgan Stanley thinks you should short Oracle

spwa4 10mo ago
Don't the cross-investments mean that if any of the AI behemoths (of which, perhaps surprisingly, Oracle is one) goes down, they all go down? Sundar Pichai even went on the front page of the BBC to state as much, and that despite Google probably being the most insulated of the bunch. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo

jalapenos 10mo ago

Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...

s1mplicissimus 10mo ago
looking forward to recommendations - i assume it's not easy to come up with an objectifiable state of affairs for "bubble has popped"
XzAeRosho 10mo ago
An option trader would bet on the volatility index of the predictions, instead of the prediction itself.
zerosizedweasle 10mo ago
It's worthless now, the 'AI boosters or I go broke crowd' - a significant section of the posters here - got to it. It was a lot different a few minutes ago.

rvz 10mo ago

My very firm timeframe is an economic crash before 2030 and a 10% increase in global unemployment before 2035.

alex-moon 10mo ago

Point of curiosity: the community prediction is, presumably, an arithmetic mean, but I argue that is not a good model for a dataset that almost certainly gets more dense closer to the present, creating a gradient out into the future. It would be great to see the geometric mean as well.

jqpabc123 10mo ago

When it pops, you won't need to ask. The answer will be obvious to everyone. The current AI bubble is a case study in how capitalist markets can be rigged by large companies.

delichon 10mo ago

And any day now people will wise up and the industrial revolution bubble will burst and we'll all go back to pastoralism. Unfortunately I'm not finding an ETF for pastoralism.

josefritzishere 10mo ago

Is Polymarket taking bets on this yet?