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Seems like a well written article and after I read it, I can't help but think there is definitely a bubble. The question is... as someone who's invested in the

by johng 11mo ago

Seems like a well written article and after I read it, I can't help but think there is definitely a bubble. The question is... as someone who's invested in the stock market, what do you do? If the bubble bursts, I don't want to be in stocks. Do I want to be in bonds? Other than shorting the market which I'm not keen on doing, what's the best way to profit from the bubble bursting?

chillel 11mo ago
diversify
bsder 11mo ago
> The question is... as someone who's invested in the stock market, what do you do? Nothing, unfortunately. The problem is that the bubble is a stretch of time while the burst is an instant. So, you lose all the benefits of participating in the runup because you exited at the wrong time while you catch all the downside of the burst because it took out all the markets simultaneously.
not_the_fda 11mo ago
Treasuries. Take a steady guaranteed 4% and sleep tight. "Safe" bonds are less than treasuries, and a big funder of the AI bubble is bonds , so you will be they one holding the bag when they bust.
neilgsmith 11mo ago
My approach is to invest for the long term, diversify a year's worth of living expenses into assets inversely correlated to tech, hold a diversified portfolio across different tech-oriented future scenarios and attempt to take a systematic, unemotional approach in domains that I understand and where I have expert knowledge. Tech and NVIDIA in particular have seen very significant draw-downs in the past and yet have been (in my experience) good investments since I started in 2008. Specifically, NVIDIA has seen extended draw-downs in the 60% to 90% range multiple times in the past. You just have to be (financially and emotionally) prepared for the ride and don't imagine you can time them. Anecdotally, Berkshire plays the safe haven / inversely correlated role for me though I've not proved it. There are always segments in tech doing well so I research beyond the Mag 7 and infrastructure. See bio for my research. [My opinion and not investment advice].

by johng 11mo ago

chillel 11mo ago

diversify

bsder 11mo ago

> The question is... as someone who's invested in the stock market, what do you do? Nothing, unfortunately. The problem is that the bubble is a stretch of time while the burst is an instant. So, you lose all the benefits of participating in the runup because you exited at the wrong time while you catch all the downside of the burst because it took out all the markets simultaneously.

not_the_fda 11mo ago

Treasuries. Take a steady guaranteed 4% and sleep tight. "Safe" bonds are less than treasuries, and a big funder of the AI bubble is bonds , so you will be they one holding the bag when they bust.

neilgsmith 11mo ago

My approach is to invest for the long term, diversify a year's worth of living expenses into assets inversely correlated to tech, hold a diversified portfolio across different tech-oriented future scenarios and attempt to take a systematic, unemotional approach in domains that I understand and where I have expert knowledge. Tech and NVIDIA in particular have seen very significant draw-downs in the past and yet have been (in my experience) good investments since I started in 2008. Specifically, NVIDIA has seen extended draw-downs in the 60% to 90% range multiple times in the past. You just have to be (financially and emotionally) prepared for the ride and don't imagine you can time them. Anecdotally, Berkshire plays the safe haven / inversely correlated role for me though I've not proved it. There are always segments in tech doing well so I research beyond the Mag 7 and infrastructure. See bio for my research. [My opinion and not investment advice].