6 ms·

Total cost of ownership is 4 years x $15k-$25k (for a cheap public school) + missed income from working that same four years ($35k x 4 years). This is equal to

Total cost of ownership is 4 years x $15k-$25k (for a cheap public school) + missed income from working that same four years ($35k x 4 years). This is equal to $220k +/- $20k of lost money. Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years. My math comes out to the college grad is still making more money despite the initial sunk cost.

deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]
AxiomaticSpace 11mo ago
This assumes that every college grad is guaranteed a decent starting income. It seems that on average new grads are struggling more now than they used to to get jobs in their fields, especially higher paying jobs. And that perception is probably magnified by internet horror stories such as every 3rd post on r/cscareers.
- nashashmi 11mo ago
  Yes this kind of math doesn’t make sense in places and industries where pay is not high and job prospects are difficult. Like liberal arts. Or third world countries. And that is the point: do the math that assesses the incomes correctly and many people won’t see as college as sensible for those professions.
rfrey 11mo ago
I'm not sure where your numbers come from. In my region job prospects are not much better for a liberal arts grad than a high school graduate, and much, much worse than someone with a trades education.
naet 11mo ago
Anecdotally my wife came very close to finishing a 4 year degree but ultimately did not for various reasons (she comes from a very disadvantaged family...) and not having one has been a major burden or blocker for her pursuing all kinds of jobs. I am hoping to help her finish, but it is hard to restart later in life and lots of past credits will probably be lost or not count anymore due to various academic bureaucracy roadblocks.
- viccis 11mo ago
  Yep, I've seen this with a lot of my friends who did a similar thing. HR employees screening you out alone is a huge problem. I have some middle and upper middle class gen X and older friends giving their children TERRIBLE advice about how degrees aren't worth it anymore and you get more out of getting started in your career ASAP than spending 4 years in school. The problem is that a BS now is like a high school diploma when they grew up, and if you don't have one, then in all likelihood, you will struggle to not be downwardly mobile, as it's the new middle class gatekeeping tool. People should NOT listen to anyone over 45-50 or so who tells them college isn't necessary. Those people grew up in a world that no longer exists. Another example of bad gen X / boomer advice is to knock out core credits in community college and transfer to university later. They don't understand that your only shot at getting significant scholarships and financial aid is when you enter as a 1st time freshman. I know someone with brilliant kids who made National Merit Scholar this year who is already setting their kids aims low by advising them to do this when there are so many good universities, both private and state, where their kids have a good shot at getting a full ride.
  - jghn 11mo ago
    > The problem is that a BS now is like a high school diploma when they grew up > gen X / boomer Those 2 generations aren't even remotely close in terms of shared experience of what high school diploma was like when they grew up.
    - viccis 11mo ago
      Well that specific example paragraph was about financial aid, not the value of a high school diploma, so I fail to see your point.
      - jcater 11mo ago
        Well, I’ll elaborate as a Gen-Xer; what you describe about financial aid was the exact same scenario we faced. You are conflating the “exceptional” kid coming out if HS who is offered full rides (who clearly should take advantage of that and go straight into university with that full ride) with an average student who will have to pay for some or all of college. For the latter, community college for 2 years was and still is a good idea.
blitz_skull 11mo ago
Assuming a grad income of $80k is an insane starting assumption. MAYBE you’re making that in software (good luck getting your foot in the door). Any other industry? Biology? Social sciences? Academia? Manufacturing? I struggle to think of anything other than finance that has a shot of STARTING at $80k. Hell I didn’t hit $80k in software industry until ~3 years in and I thought I was (I indeed WAS) very lucky.
- alephnerd 11mo ago
  Your numbers seem to be a couple years out of date, or maybe you're (no offense) living in an economic backwater like Florida where salaries are severely depressed due to the tourism effect. The base salaries for Entry level SWE roles are in the $80k-100k range nationally [0]. Additionally, most finance roles start in that ranges, though high finance has starting salaries comparable to Big Tech new grad. Even Biotech new grad salaries tend to be in the $60k-80k range. Same with manufacturing engineering roles [1] [0] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/entry-level/locations/united-states https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/entry-leve... [1] - https://www.salary.com/research/salary/alternate/entry-manufacturing-engineer-salary https://www.salary.com/research/salary/alternate/entry-manuf...
  - givemeethekeys 11mo ago
    > like Florida If Florida is "backwater", then so is most of the rest of the country outside of a handful of overpriced cities where earning 80k is required to be able to afford a room in an apartment - not the whole apartment, and certainly not buying one.
    - alephnerd 11mo ago
      I mean yea, they absolutely are economically speaking - especially when looking at where new grad college educated jobs are located [0]. Heck, most states have fallen into a technical recession [1]. Florida is weird simply because of how much tourism and retirement adjacent industries skew it's economy (eg. Elderly care, primary care, etc) - in fact, healthcare services (as in elderly care, hospice care, and homecare) is the only non-skilled industry that is seeing a significant expansion in the US. I personally along with HN, other VCs, and PE funds have been actively following the MSO space for a couple years now because of this boom. And I say this as someone who kinda likes Florida (Dr Philips reminds me and moreso the missus of bougie gated communities back in ASEAN - it's a nice place for us to Fat FIRE). [0] - https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2025/02/28/white-collar-workers-denver-jobs https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2025/02/28/white-collar-w... [1] - https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea27a8 https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea2...
apparent 11mo ago
The numbers look very different for a private school, which could run up to $100k for tuition, room, and board. It is almost unimaginable that attending a private college could have a positive expected value at that cost. For one thing, the incoming students will typically have stellar credentials and abilities. This means that they would not have the average outcome of a high school grad who gets no further education. If I were faced with spending $100k/yr for my kid to go to college, I would strongly consider offering 5 tranches of $50,000 that we would together invest in business ideas over the next 5 years. Humanities and social sciences could be learned in parallel, while trying to launch businesses that bring value to the world. The lessons learned would not be the same as those one learns in college, and the social aspects would be very different/lacking. This would clearly not work for all teenagers, but for some, it could be a much better opportunity and use of funds.
- menaerus 11mo ago
  People who can afford themselves going to private schools have a reason why they prefer spending 100ks vs less. Prestige schools gets you a prestige job so "It is almost unimaginable that attending a private college could have a positive expected value at that cost" isn't necessarily true.
  - apparent 11mo ago
    The thing is, prestige and cost do not go hand in hand. The most expensive schools are not the most prestigious. I think Vanderbilt was the first school to hit the ignominious milestone of $100,000/yr, and they're not Ivy League, Ivy+, or perhaps even Ivy++ (if such a classification existed).
    - deleted 11mo ago
      [deleted]
    - menaerus 11mo ago
      Yeah, ok, but this doesn't invalidate what I said above. Completing the degree with MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, and such will cost you ~$100k per year (give or take) but they will also open you a door of landing a prestigious job more easily than with the other colleges. Entry level salaries for most of these folks are ~$200k/yr so having a ~$400k total cost for education, even though I agree it looks totally crazy when given without the context, isn't really _that_ crazy when you put it into a perspective of total expected income. I think that if this hasn't been even remotely true, there would be no people taking the degrees there, no?
lotsofpulp 11mo ago
> Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years. I would not assume earning that much for 43 years.
insane_dreamer 11mo ago
Are you assuming $55k salary differential? ($80k for starting graduate vs $35k for non-graduate)? That seems a bit high.
- nashashmi 11mo ago
  what would a more reasonable ratio be? I consider someone without a degree 15 years later making the same as a college grad right out of school. though at 3.5% that would come out to $58,000. So yeah the numbers are not the most rational. $60k would be more reasonable for a college grad.
trashface 11mo ago
The 43 years of career is debatable. I got a CS degree in 1997 and worked for 18 years (non consecutively), but have been out of work now for several years. It's quite possible those 18 are the entirety of the earnings I will derive from my CS degree. And people today have AI pressures I didn't have. Makes the math quite a bit different.
saint_fiasco 11mo ago
What if you fail for whatever reason and don't finish college? Then you spent a bunch of time and money for essentially no benefit. College will always be worth it for people who are smart and driven and hard working. But a lot of people who are not like that are nevertheless encouraged to go to college because that's what everyone does. The change in attitude towards college by the new generation is probably a reaction to the excesses of the previous one, when even mediocre students were encouraged to take a risk they were not prepared to even evaluate, let alone take.
nitwit005 11mo ago
This idea that a university degree gets you a higher exponent on your annual raises seems like a poor model. Many careers have an effective ceiling on possible wages, baring becoming an executive or owner of some sort.
- nashashmi 11mo ago
  I consider degrees to be a compressed delivery of 15 years of work experience into 4 years. After 15 years of work, the same pay would be given to a college grad with zero years of experience.

deleted 11mo ago

[deleted]

AxiomaticSpace 11mo ago

This assumes that every college grad is guaranteed a decent starting income. It seems that on average new grads are struggling more now than they used to to get jobs in their fields, especially higher paying jobs. And that perception is probably magnified by internet horror stories such as every 3rd post on r/cscareers.

nashashmi 11mo ago
Yes this kind of math doesn’t make sense in places and industries where pay is not high and job prospects are difficult. Like liberal arts. Or third world countries. And that is the point: do the math that assesses the incomes correctly and many people won’t see as college as sensible for those professions.

rfrey 11mo ago

I'm not sure where your numbers come from. In my region job prospects are not much better for a liberal arts grad than a high school graduate, and much, much worse than someone with a trades education.

naet 11mo ago

Anecdotally my wife came very close to finishing a 4 year degree but ultimately did not for various reasons (she comes from a very disadvantaged family...) and not having one has been a major burden or blocker for her pursuing all kinds of jobs. I am hoping to help her finish, but it is hard to restart later in life and lots of past credits will probably be lost or not count anymore due to various academic bureaucracy roadblocks.

viccis 11mo ago
Yep, I've seen this with a lot of my friends who did a similar thing. HR employees screening you out alone is a huge problem. I have some middle and upper middle class gen X and older friends giving their children TERRIBLE advice about how degrees aren't worth it anymore and you get more out of getting started in your career ASAP than spending 4 years in school. The problem is that a BS now is like a high school diploma when they grew up, and if you don't have one, then in all likelihood, you will struggle to not be downwardly mobile, as it's the new middle class gatekeeping tool. People should NOT listen to anyone over 45-50 or so who tells them college isn't necessary. Those people grew up in a world that no longer exists. Another example of bad gen X / boomer advice is to knock out core credits in community college and transfer to university later. They don't understand that your only shot at getting significant scholarships and financial aid is when you enter as a 1st time freshman. I know someone with brilliant kids who made National Merit Scholar this year who is already setting their kids aims low by advising them to do this when there are so many good universities, both private and state, where their kids have a good shot at getting a full ride.
- jghn 11mo ago
  > The problem is that a BS now is like a high school diploma when they grew up > gen X / boomer Those 2 generations aren't even remotely close in terms of shared experience of what high school diploma was like when they grew up.
  - viccis 11mo ago
    Well that specific example paragraph was about financial aid, not the value of a high school diploma, so I fail to see your point.
    - jcater 11mo ago
      Well, I’ll elaborate as a Gen-Xer; what you describe about financial aid was the exact same scenario we faced. You are conflating the “exceptional” kid coming out if HS who is offered full rides (who clearly should take advantage of that and go straight into university with that full ride) with an average student who will have to pay for some or all of college. For the latter, community college for 2 years was and still is a good idea.

blitz_skull 11mo ago

Assuming a grad income of $80k is an insane starting assumption. MAYBE you’re making that in software (good luck getting your foot in the door). Any other industry? Biology? Social sciences? Academia? Manufacturing? I struggle to think of anything other than finance that has a shot of STARTING at $80k. Hell I didn’t hit $80k in software industry until ~3 years in and I thought I was (I indeed WAS) very lucky.

alephnerd 11mo ago
Your numbers seem to be a couple years out of date, or maybe you're (no offense) living in an economic backwater like Florida where salaries are severely depressed due to the tourism effect. The base salaries for Entry level SWE roles are in the $80k-100k range nationally [0]. Additionally, most finance roles start in that ranges, though high finance has starting salaries comparable to Big Tech new grad. Even Biotech new grad salaries tend to be in the $60k-80k range. Same with manufacturing engineering roles [1] [0] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/entry-level/locations/united-states https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/entry-leve... [1] - https://www.salary.com/research/salary/alternate/entry-manufacturing-engineer-salary https://www.salary.com/research/salary/alternate/entry-manuf...
- givemeethekeys 11mo ago
  > like Florida If Florida is "backwater", then so is most of the rest of the country outside of a handful of overpriced cities where earning 80k is required to be able to afford a room in an apartment - not the whole apartment, and certainly not buying one.
  - alephnerd 11mo ago
    I mean yea, they absolutely are economically speaking - especially when looking at where new grad college educated jobs are located [0]. Heck, most states have fallen into a technical recession [1]. Florida is weird simply because of how much tourism and retirement adjacent industries skew it's economy (eg. Elderly care, primary care, etc) - in fact, healthcare services (as in elderly care, hospice care, and homecare) is the only non-skilled industry that is seeing a significant expansion in the US. I personally along with HN, other VCs, and PE funds have been actively following the MSO space for a couple years now because of this boom. And I say this as someone who kinda likes Florida (Dr Philips reminds me and moreso the missus of bougie gated communities back in ASEAN - it's a nice place for us to Fat FIRE). [0] - https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2025/02/28/white-collar-workers-denver-jobs https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2025/02/28/white-collar-w... [1] - https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea27a8 https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea2...

apparent 11mo ago

The numbers look very different for a private school, which could run up to $100k for tuition, room, and board. It is almost unimaginable that attending a private college could have a positive expected value at that cost. For one thing, the incoming students will typically have stellar credentials and abilities. This means that they would not have the average outcome of a high school grad who gets no further education. If I were faced with spending $100k/yr for my kid to go to college, I would strongly consider offering 5 tranches of $50,000 that we would together invest in business ideas over the next 5 years. Humanities and social sciences could be learned in parallel, while trying to launch businesses that bring value to the world. The lessons learned would not be the same as those one learns in college, and the social aspects would be very different/lacking. This would clearly not work for all teenagers, but for some, it could be a much better opportunity and use of funds.

menaerus 11mo ago
People who can afford themselves going to private schools have a reason why they prefer spending 100ks vs less. Prestige schools gets you a prestige job so "It is almost unimaginable that attending a private college could have a positive expected value at that cost" isn't necessarily true.
- apparent 11mo ago
  The thing is, prestige and cost do not go hand in hand. The most expensive schools are not the most prestigious. I think Vanderbilt was the first school to hit the ignominious milestone of $100,000/yr, and they're not Ivy League, Ivy+, or perhaps even Ivy++ (if such a classification existed).
  - deleted 11mo ago
    [deleted]
  - menaerus 11mo ago
    Yeah, ok, but this doesn't invalidate what I said above. Completing the degree with MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, and such will cost you ~$100k per year (give or take) but they will also open you a door of landing a prestigious job more easily than with the other colleges. Entry level salaries for most of these folks are ~$200k/yr so having a ~$400k total cost for education, even though I agree it looks totally crazy when given without the context, isn't really _that_ crazy when you put it into a perspective of total expected income. I think that if this hasn't been even remotely true, there would be no people taking the degrees there, no?

lotsofpulp 11mo ago

> Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years. I would not assume earning that much for 43 years.

insane_dreamer 11mo ago

Are you assuming $55k salary differential? ($80k for starting graduate vs $35k for non-graduate)? That seems a bit high.

nashashmi 11mo ago
what would a more reasonable ratio be? I consider someone without a degree 15 years later making the same as a college grad right out of school. though at 3.5% that would come out to $58,000. So yeah the numbers are not the most rational. $60k would be more reasonable for a college grad.

trashface 11mo ago

The 43 years of career is debatable. I got a CS degree in 1997 and worked for 18 years (non consecutively), but have been out of work now for several years. It's quite possible those 18 are the entirety of the earnings I will derive from my CS degree. And people today have AI pressures I didn't have. Makes the math quite a bit different.

saint_fiasco 11mo ago

What if you fail for whatever reason and don't finish college? Then you spent a bunch of time and money for essentially no benefit. College will always be worth it for people who are smart and driven and hard working. But a lot of people who are not like that are nevertheless encouraged to go to college because that's what everyone does. The change in attitude towards college by the new generation is probably a reaction to the excesses of the previous one, when even mediocre students were encouraged to take a risk they were not prepared to even evaluate, let alone take.

nitwit005 11mo ago

This idea that a university degree gets you a higher exponent on your annual raises seems like a poor model. Many careers have an effective ceiling on possible wages, baring becoming an executive or owner of some sort.

nashashmi 11mo ago
I consider degrees to be a compressed delivery of 15 years of work experience into 4 years. After 15 years of work, the same pay would be given to a college grad with zero years of experience.