4 ms·

Tesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China

by paxys 11mo ago

Tesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China is going to fill in the demand for affordable EVs in the rest of the world outside USA/EU.

toomuchtodo 11mo ago
Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale. https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300/chinese-ev-makers-step-gas-abroad-hedge-against-weaker-mainland-sales https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300... https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-october-nev-sales-set-yet-more-records/ https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob... https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-Rolls-off-the-Line-in-Brazil https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-... https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expansion-industry-update/ https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa... https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-make-their-cars/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...
noosphr 11mo ago
I don't think we've seen the end game yet. I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing. The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man. I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
- mike50 11mo ago
  The Smart for Two existed with an internal combustion engine.
- sofixa 11mo ago
  > The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man. Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them. In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for. > I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now. Renault Twizy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy ) exists, but doesn't sell all that well (compared to "normal" cars). The Citroen Ami ( https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) ) is pretty popular in certain places (saw a ton of them in Amsterdam and semi-rural areas in France).
  - rootusrootus 11mo ago
    > that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim? It seems more likely that people vote with their wallet, and bigger wins out a lot of the time. It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well.
    - sofixa 11mo ago
      > Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim It's a bit hard to have objective research on marketing and public perceptions. But how else do you explain all the marketing in that regard, and the fact that Americans, on average, even urbanites, keep buying massive pickup trucks, the majority of which are never used for anything more than a commuter vehicle for 1, maybe 2 occupants? Even in rich countries with very outdoorsy people (Switzerland, Nordics, hell, the Netherlands has camping as a national sport, and during summertime they do mass migrations in towed campers and campervans towards the south of France, Italy, Spain), very few people buy trucks. Marketing, an arms race, manufacturers not offering much else because their marketing works, Americans being very aspirational about what they'll do with their vehicles, idk. > It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well. Japanese vehicles in the US or everywhere? Cars in general have been getting bigger because of safety features, but American monstrosities with lower visibility than literal tanks are an almost uniquely American phenomenon (slowly invading the rest of the world too).
nodesocket 11mo ago
What, has it been a decade of HN’ers calling for imminent demise of Tesla. Meanwhile I’ve been laughing and buying all the way to the bank. Keep on doubting.
- jeltz 11mo ago
  [flagged]
1970-01-01 11mo ago
Assuming they just manufactured vehicles, then this would be the correct take.

by paxys 11mo ago

toomuchtodo 11mo ago

Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale. https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300/chinese-ev-makers-step-gas-abroad-hedge-against-weaker-mainland-sales https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300... https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-october-nev-sales-set-yet-more-records/ https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob... https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-Rolls-off-the-Line-in-Brazil https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-... https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expansion-industry-update/ https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa... https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-make-their-cars/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...

noosphr 11mo ago

I don't think we've seen the end game yet. I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing. The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man. I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.

mike50 11mo ago
The Smart for Two existed with an internal combustion engine.
sofixa 11mo ago
> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man. Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them. In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for. > I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now. Renault Twizy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy ) exists, but doesn't sell all that well (compared to "normal" cars). The Citroen Ami ( https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) ) is pretty popular in certain places (saw a ton of them in Amsterdam and semi-rural areas in France).
- rootusrootus 11mo ago
  > that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim? It seems more likely that people vote with their wallet, and bigger wins out a lot of the time. It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well.
  - sofixa 11mo ago
    > Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim It's a bit hard to have objective research on marketing and public perceptions. But how else do you explain all the marketing in that regard, and the fact that Americans, on average, even urbanites, keep buying massive pickup trucks, the majority of which are never used for anything more than a commuter vehicle for 1, maybe 2 occupants? Even in rich countries with very outdoorsy people (Switzerland, Nordics, hell, the Netherlands has camping as a national sport, and during summertime they do mass migrations in towed campers and campervans towards the south of France, Italy, Spain), very few people buy trucks. Marketing, an arms race, manufacturers not offering much else because their marketing works, Americans being very aspirational about what they'll do with their vehicles, idk. > It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well. Japanese vehicles in the US or everywhere? Cars in general have been getting bigger because of safety features, but American monstrosities with lower visibility than literal tanks are an almost uniquely American phenomenon (slowly invading the rest of the world too).

nodesocket 11mo ago

What, has it been a decade of HN’ers calling for imminent demise of Tesla. Meanwhile I’ve been laughing and buying all the way to the bank. Keep on doubting.

jeltz 11mo ago
[flagged]

1970-01-01 11mo ago

Assuming they just manufactured vehicles, then this would be the correct take.