4 ms·

I think investors would certainly love this. So why hasn’t it already happened? My guess: they would lose a ton of cultural cachet. Turning OpenAI into an ads

I think investors would certainly love this. So why hasn’t it already happened? My guess: they would lose a ton of cultural cachet. Turning OpenAI into an ads business is basically admitting that AGI isn’t coming down the pipeline anytime soon. Yes, I know people will make some cost-based argument that ads + agi is perfectly logical. But that’s not how people will perceive things, and OpenAI knows this. And I think the masses have a point: if we are really a few years away from AGI replacing the entire labor force, then there’s surely higher margin businesses they can engage in compared to ads. Especially since they are allegedly a non-profit. After Google and Facebook, nobody is buying the “just a few ads to fund operating costs” argument either.

lazide 11mo ago
Aka you need them deep enough into the trap they can’t escape, before you trigger it.
- smallmancontrov 11mo ago
  Yes and there are layers. Remember when google ads had yellow backgrounds? I'm sure OpenAI will find a way to do ads "ethically"... for a while, until people get comfortable, and that's when they will start to make ChatGPT increasingly manipulative.
  - lazide 11mo ago
    Gotta make that line go up and to the right!
    - smallmancontrov 11mo ago
      > The goals of the advertising business model do not always correspond to providing quality search to users. - Sergey Brin and Lawrence Page, The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine
- SketchySeaBeast 11mo ago
  Can anyone explain to me what ChatGPT does that traps people? I get the value as tools, I like using copilot, but ChatGPT doesn't offer me value that any other LLM can't. Given that everyone is quickly rolling "AI" into their own stuff, I don't see what's ChatGPT's killer app. If anything, I think Gemini is better positioned to capture the general user market.
  - lazide 11mo ago
    They make it a habit to use them, by offloading that part of their thinking/process to them. It’s similar to Google Maps, or even Google itself. When was the last time you went to an actual physical library, for instance? Or pulled out a paper map? Gemini is a competitor, yes. But most people still go to Google at this point, even if there are a ton of competitors. That is what the race is about (in large part), who can become ‘the norm’.
    - SketchySeaBeast 11mo ago
      > Gemini is a competitor, yes. But most people still go to Google at this point, even if there are a ton of competitors. Yeah, that's my point. If Google is good enough I don't think people are going to want to do those extra steps, just as in your google maps example. There might be better services out there, but google maps are just too convenient.
    - pxc 11mo ago
      > When was the last time you went to an actual physical library My eyesight is making paper books harder and harder to read, so I don't go to libraries and bookstores as much as I used to. But I think libraries are still relatively popular with families, because they're sites of various community activities as well as safe, quiet places to let kids roam and entertain themselves while the parents are nearby. When I was a kid, my parents went to the library much more often than they do now, because they were taking me and my sister there. And then we would all get books before we came home. Not saying you're entirely wrong, but there's a significant part of this that is "changing rhythms of life as we age", not just "changing times".
deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]
roboror 11mo ago
I agree but even if AGI is possible within 5-10 years it must be hard to justify maintaining or even increasing this level of burn for much longer.
emp17344 11mo ago
Yup, it’s essentially an admission of failure. I think the people who were expecting AI to improve exponentially are disappointed by its current state, where it’s basically just a useful tool to assist workers in some highly specific fields.
- kjkjadksj 11mo ago
  Highly specific fields? They are trying to get you to reach for ai when an emailed “ok, thanks” would do. They want you to lose your ability to write and formulate thoughts without the tool. Then it is really over. That is the golden goose. Not a couple data scientists.
- JumpCrisscross 11mo ago
  > it’s essentially an admission of failure A multibillion dollar failure is fine by investors. Altman hasn’t been peddling the AGI BS to them. That’s aimed at the public and policymakers.
  - ForHackernews 11mo ago
    Is a trillion dollar failure okay with investors?
beefnugs 11mo ago
It also is impossible to work properly: either they also screwup the entire API to break everyones programmatic access to coding and regular apps, or else everyone just starts making wrappers around the API to make without-ad-chatbots
- hattmall 11mo ago
  Why would they need ads on API though, API is paid usage. They just need a few years of scaling for it to be profitable. Some models are already a net profit on API usage.
raincole 11mo ago
Would've happened if Claude and Gemini weren't things. But they are. Regardless of AGI, being known as the only LLM that introduced ads sounds very bad.

lazide 11mo ago

Aka you need them deep enough into the trap they can’t escape, before you trigger it.

smallmancontrov 11mo ago
Yes and there are layers. Remember when google ads had yellow backgrounds? I'm sure OpenAI will find a way to do ads "ethically"... for a while, until people get comfortable, and that's when they will start to make ChatGPT increasingly manipulative.
- lazide 11mo ago
  Gotta make that line go up and to the right!
  - smallmancontrov 11mo ago
    > The goals of the advertising business model do not always correspond to providing quality search to users. - Sergey Brin and Lawrence Page, The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine
SketchySeaBeast 11mo ago
Can anyone explain to me what ChatGPT does that traps people? I get the value as tools, I like using copilot, but ChatGPT doesn't offer me value that any other LLM can't. Given that everyone is quickly rolling "AI" into their own stuff, I don't see what's ChatGPT's killer app. If anything, I think Gemini is better positioned to capture the general user market.
- lazide 11mo ago
  They make it a habit to use them, by offloading that part of their thinking/process to them. It’s similar to Google Maps, or even Google itself. When was the last time you went to an actual physical library, for instance? Or pulled out a paper map? Gemini is a competitor, yes. But most people still go to Google at this point, even if there are a ton of competitors. That is what the race is about (in large part), who can become ‘the norm’.
  - SketchySeaBeast 11mo ago
    > Gemini is a competitor, yes. But most people still go to Google at this point, even if there are a ton of competitors. Yeah, that's my point. If Google is good enough I don't think people are going to want to do those extra steps, just as in your google maps example. There might be better services out there, but google maps are just too convenient.
  - pxc 11mo ago
    > When was the last time you went to an actual physical library My eyesight is making paper books harder and harder to read, so I don't go to libraries and bookstores as much as I used to. But I think libraries are still relatively popular with families, because they're sites of various community activities as well as safe, quiet places to let kids roam and entertain themselves while the parents are nearby. When I was a kid, my parents went to the library much more often than they do now, because they were taking me and my sister there. And then we would all get books before we came home. Not saying you're entirely wrong, but there's a significant part of this that is "changing rhythms of life as we age", not just "changing times".

deleted 11mo ago

[deleted]

roboror 11mo ago

I agree but even if AGI is possible within 5-10 years it must be hard to justify maintaining or even increasing this level of burn for much longer.

emp17344 11mo ago

Yup, it’s essentially an admission of failure. I think the people who were expecting AI to improve exponentially are disappointed by its current state, where it’s basically just a useful tool to assist workers in some highly specific fields.

kjkjadksj 11mo ago
Highly specific fields? They are trying to get you to reach for ai when an emailed “ok, thanks” would do. They want you to lose your ability to write and formulate thoughts without the tool. Then it is really over. That is the golden goose. Not a couple data scientists.
JumpCrisscross 11mo ago
> it’s essentially an admission of failure A multibillion dollar failure is fine by investors. Altman hasn’t been peddling the AGI BS to them. That’s aimed at the public and policymakers.
- ForHackernews 11mo ago
  Is a trillion dollar failure okay with investors?

beefnugs 11mo ago

It also is impossible to work properly: either they also screwup the entire API to break everyones programmatic access to coding and regular apps, or else everyone just starts making wrappers around the API to make without-ad-chatbots

hattmall 11mo ago
Why would they need ads on API though, API is paid usage. They just need a few years of scaling for it to be profitable. Some models are already a net profit on API usage.

raincole 11mo ago

Would've happened if Claude and Gemini weren't things. But they are. Regardless of AGI, being known as the only LLM that introduced ads sounds very bad.