4 ms·

> I think people who kept saying there is no moat in AI is about to be shocked at how strong of a moat there actually is for ChatGPT Given one can (at least fo

by logifail 11mo ago

> I think people who kept saying there is no moat in AI is about to be shocked at how strong of a moat there actually is for ChatGPT Given one can (at least for the moment) export one's entire chat history from ChatGPT, what exactly would stop a ChatGPT user from switching to an alternative if the alternative is either better, or better value?

android521 11mo ago
The answer is friction. What % of this billion of users will bother to export their chat history (which is already a lot) and import another another llm. That number is too small to matter.
- adam_patarino 11mo ago
  Since each chat is virtually independent there’s no switching cost. I’ve moved between Claude and ChatGPT with no cares. It’s not like Facebook where all my friends stay behind
  - aranelsurion 11mo ago
    > Since each chat is virtually independent That hasn't been true for a while though. Open a new chat tab in ChatGPT and ask it "What do you know about me" to see it in action.
    - downsplat 11mo ago
      You can turn that off. If you're using LLMs for technical or real world questions, it's nicer for each chat to be a blank slate.
      - aranelsurion 11mo ago
        You can also use Temporary Chats for that.
- swexbe 11mo ago
  All chat apps look exactly the same and have exactly the same features. The friction is basically non-existent compared to email services, social media, web browsers, &c.
  - ethmarks 11mo ago
    I think it matters to more than you might think. A significant portion of the non-technical ChatGPT userbase get really attached to the model flavor. The GPT-4o controversy is a good example. People got attached to 4o's emotional and enthusiastic response style. When GPT-5--which was much more terse and practical--rolled out, people got really upset because they were treating ChatGPT as a confident and friend, and were upset when it's personality changed. In my experience, Gemini and Claude are much more helpful and terse than ChatGPT with less conversational padding. I can imagine that the people who value that conversational padding would have a similar reaction to Gemini or Claude as they did to GPT-5.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    Yet, somehow I've been paying $20/month to ChatGPT for years now and I don't use Claude or Gemini even when they're free or have slightly better models.
    - sumeno 11mo ago
      Oh well if YOU do something then that's that
      - aurareturn 11mo ago
        1 billion users and growing says there are more people like me than not.
    - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
      Many more people see “AI overviews” everyday with Google being the default search engine on almost every mobile phone outside of China.
- friendzis 11mo ago
  Wrong ratio. How many of those care about their own particular history in the first place and what % of those at least actively manage it outside of standard chat interface or even hop providers? I think that % would surprise you.
- chroma205 11mo ago
  > The answer is friction. Yet non-technical users switched from Edge/Safari to Google Chrome.
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    Because there is no data in a browser. Even if there is, browsers made it easy to import/export bookmarks and history. You don't see Instagram willingly giving up all their data on users to Tiktok right?
darkwater 11mo ago
- Knowing that an alternative exists - Switching effort Word of mouth usually works just with one vendor at a time.
auggierose 11mo ago
99% of users having no idea what "export chat history" means?
- rglullis 11mo ago
  How many of those will have no issue to learn what it is once the ads become too annoying?
  - auggierose 11mo ago
    Very good question! 1% ?
    - rglullis 11mo ago
      You are vastly overestimating people's willingness to deal with bullshit, when the product does not have a real lock in. It would be incredibly easy to have a company offering their ChatGPT over WhatsApp or iMessage, and get people to start using it instead of an ad-ridden GPT app.
      - auggierose 11mo ago
        Maybe. But maybe you are vastly overestimating people's willingness to give a fuck, as long as they get what they came for. That is why ads rule.
- chroma205 11mo ago
  > 99% of users having no idea what "export chat history" means? Yet Google Chrome managed to make Safari/Edge irrelevant.
  - auggierose 11mo ago
    Yeah, not because of browser history export/import, mate. I've never used that feature for any browser.
  - 11mo ago
aurareturn 11mo ago
No one normal will do that. And I'm betting that OpenAI will get rid of that functionality soon.
- swexbe 11mo ago
  Just like no one normal would ever switch from internet explorer?
  - aurareturn 11mo ago
    Browsers made it easy to import/export bookmarks and history. You don't see Instagram willingly giving up all their data on users to Tiktok right?
- chroma205 11mo ago
  >No one normal will do that. Google Chrome did it. They can do it again.
- jchip303 11mo ago
  [dead]
daliusd 11mo ago
What alternative? Switching requires something what is better 10x
- Spivak 11mo ago
  No it doesn't, people switch ISPs and phone plans all the time for on the order of 1x difference.
veeti 11mo ago
Google can just build "import from ChatGPT" into Chrome, like switching from Internet Explorer back in the day.
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  How do you suppose they can do that technically when OpenAI inevitably remove export function?
  - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
    Doesn’t the GDPR mandate it? I know even AWS had to introduce a one time method of being able to export your data without charge.
Spivak 11mo ago
People are being weird about this. ChatGPT has no moat because switching costs are zero. There's no investment into a particular AI service. ChatGPT has mindshare but that's not the same as it being a moat. The fact that people will continue to use ChatGPT after some gentle frog boiling is true of any service. Adding ads is going to be a measure of how real people tolerate ads more than anything about ChatGPT. Normal people really don't care that much and it bothers me—and probably most of HN.
- logifail 11mo ago
  > ChatGPT has mindshare but that's not the same as it being a moat. Short answer: For a casual user using the chat interface, there is almost no moat. Long answer: there are either zero or negligible - switching costs ("would take me weeks to migrate all my files from Google Drive to Dropbox") - network effects ("can't leave Whatsapp, all my friends are there") - ecosystem lock-in ("I can't switch from iPhone to Android, my other devices would break (iMessage/iCloud/AirPods))" Right now AI is pretty much a commodity.

android521 11mo ago

The answer is friction. What % of this billion of users will bother to export their chat history (which is already a lot) and import another another llm. That number is too small to matter.

adam_patarino 11mo ago
Since each chat is virtually independent there’s no switching cost. I’ve moved between Claude and ChatGPT with no cares. It’s not like Facebook where all my friends stay behind
- aranelsurion 11mo ago
  > Since each chat is virtually independent That hasn't been true for a while though. Open a new chat tab in ChatGPT and ask it "What do you know about me" to see it in action.
  - downsplat 11mo ago
    You can turn that off. If you're using LLMs for technical or real world questions, it's nicer for each chat to be a blank slate.
    - aranelsurion 11mo ago
      You can also use Temporary Chats for that.
swexbe 11mo ago
All chat apps look exactly the same and have exactly the same features. The friction is basically non-existent compared to email services, social media, web browsers, &c.
- ethmarks 11mo ago
  I think it matters to more than you might think. A significant portion of the non-technical ChatGPT userbase get really attached to the model flavor. The GPT-4o controversy is a good example. People got attached to 4o's emotional and enthusiastic response style. When GPT-5--which was much more terse and practical--rolled out, people got really upset because they were treating ChatGPT as a confident and friend, and were upset when it's personality changed. In my experience, Gemini and Claude are much more helpful and terse than ChatGPT with less conversational padding. I can imagine that the people who value that conversational padding would have a similar reaction to Gemini or Claude as they did to GPT-5.
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  Yet, somehow I've been paying $20/month to ChatGPT for years now and I don't use Claude or Gemini even when they're free or have slightly better models.
  - sumeno 11mo ago
    Oh well if YOU do something then that's that
    - aurareturn 11mo ago
      1 billion users and growing says there are more people like me than not.
  - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
    Many more people see “AI overviews” everyday with Google being the default search engine on almost every mobile phone outside of China.
friendzis 11mo ago
Wrong ratio. How many of those care about their own particular history in the first place and what % of those at least actively manage it outside of standard chat interface or even hop providers? I think that % would surprise you.
chroma205 11mo ago
> The answer is friction. Yet non-technical users switched from Edge/Safari to Google Chrome.
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  Because there is no data in a browser. Even if there is, browsers made it easy to import/export bookmarks and history. You don't see Instagram willingly giving up all their data on users to Tiktok right?

darkwater 11mo ago

- Knowing that an alternative exists - Switching effort Word of mouth usually works just with one vendor at a time.

auggierose 11mo ago

99% of users having no idea what "export chat history" means?

rglullis 11mo ago
How many of those will have no issue to learn what it is once the ads become too annoying?
- auggierose 11mo ago
  Very good question! 1% ?
  - rglullis 11mo ago
    You are vastly overestimating people's willingness to deal with bullshit, when the product does not have a real lock in. It would be incredibly easy to have a company offering their ChatGPT over WhatsApp or iMessage, and get people to start using it instead of an ad-ridden GPT app.
    - auggierose 11mo ago
      Maybe. But maybe you are vastly overestimating people's willingness to give a fuck, as long as they get what they came for. That is why ads rule.
chroma205 11mo ago
> 99% of users having no idea what "export chat history" means? Yet Google Chrome managed to make Safari/Edge irrelevant.
- auggierose 11mo ago
  Yeah, not because of browser history export/import, mate. I've never used that feature for any browser.
- 11mo ago

aurareturn 11mo ago

No one normal will do that. And I'm betting that OpenAI will get rid of that functionality soon.

swexbe 11mo ago
Just like no one normal would ever switch from internet explorer?
- aurareturn 11mo ago
  Browsers made it easy to import/export bookmarks and history. You don't see Instagram willingly giving up all their data on users to Tiktok right?
chroma205 11mo ago
>No one normal will do that. Google Chrome did it. They can do it again.
jchip303 11mo ago
[dead]

daliusd 11mo ago

What alternative? Switching requires something what is better 10x

Spivak 11mo ago
No it doesn't, people switch ISPs and phone plans all the time for on the order of 1x difference.

veeti 11mo ago

Google can just build "import from ChatGPT" into Chrome, like switching from Internet Explorer back in the day.

aurareturn 11mo ago
How do you suppose they can do that technically when OpenAI inevitably remove export function?
- raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
  Doesn’t the GDPR mandate it? I know even AWS had to introduce a one time method of being able to export your data without charge.

Spivak 11mo ago

People are being weird about this. ChatGPT has no moat because switching costs are zero. There's no investment into a particular AI service. ChatGPT has mindshare but that's not the same as it being a moat. The fact that people will continue to use ChatGPT after some gentle frog boiling is true of any service. Adding ads is going to be a measure of how real people tolerate ads more than anything about ChatGPT. Normal people really don't care that much and it bothers me—and probably most of HN.

logifail 11mo ago
> ChatGPT has mindshare but that's not the same as it being a moat. Short answer: For a casual user using the chat interface, there is almost no moat. Long answer: there are either zero or negligible - switching costs ("would take me weeks to migrate all my files from Google Drive to Dropbox") - network effects ("can't leave Whatsapp, all my friends are there") - ecosystem lock-in ("I can't switch from iPhone to Android, my other devices would break (iMessage/iCloud/AirPods))" Right now AI is pretty much a commodity.