The Nasdaq 17 year figure is only true from the peakiest peak of ~4800 in March 2000. Two years earlier, in March 1998, it was at 1750. It had hit 1750 again

The Nasdaq 17 year figure is only true from the peakiest peak of ~4800 in March 2000. Two years earlier, in March 1998, it was at 1750. It had hit 1750 again by August 2023. All this to say... shorting 1-2 years early doesn't work. You don't have the patience or capital to actually maintain a short position for two years while the market goes from 1750 to 4800. You can cheaply sit out in cash, if you want, but that's not a short position. And the S&P500 hasn't seen the kind of 300% run-up over an 18 month period that Nasdaq did in the dotcom boom.